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India Today
2 days ago
- Business
- India Today
US-China race for Pakistan: Trump's transactional diplomacy or Xi's financial doles?
With China announcing a $3.4 billion loan rollover for Pakistan and an increased engagement between Washington DC and Islamabad, experts believe that Pakistan could emerge as a surprising centre of attention-garnering renewed interest not just from China, its long-standing ally, but also from an increasingly transactional Trump-led United States. To unpack these evolving dynamics, we spoke to Michael Kugelman, Senior Fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation, who offered deep insights into the strategic recalibration underway in the In a rapidly shifting South Asian geopolitical landscape, Kugelman highlighted how Pakistan's civilian and military leadership, particularly Field Marshal Asim Munir, has effectively tapped into key U.S. interests-from critical minerals to cryptocurrency and counterterrorism. These alignments, though narrow, have sparked a fresh wave of engagement with Washington, despite Pakistan's entrenched alliance with China. In fact, recent developments include crypto firms linked to Trump's family doing deals with Pakistan's new crypto council—pointing to a blend of policy and personal interests driving U.S. Iran and Afghanistan, Kugelman noted limited but real convergence, especially on counterterrorism. He also pointed out how the U.S. may be using Pakistan's proximity to Iran to quietly gather intelligence, even amid limited military strikes. India, meanwhile, appears sidelined-possibly due to its cautious response to Trump's claimed role in brokering a ceasefire with Pakistan. Kugelman cautioned, however, against overstating a U.S.-Pakistan pivot, noting strong underlying India-U.S. ties and ongoing trade also touched on Pakistan's adept diplomacy in balancing its China and U.S. relations, and how shifts in Bangladesh and growing ties with Turkey further strengthen Islamabad's strategic for Trump himself, Kugelman described his fascination with power figures like Muneer, contrasting it with his longstanding rapport with Prime Minister Modi-hinting that personal chemistry may yet influence future U.S.-India ties. - EndsMust Watch
The Diplomat
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Diplomat
Michael Kugelman Revisits the India-Pakistan Crisis
'This is the first time since each country went nuclear that we've seen so much force used in so many places.' In early May, India and Pakistan were on the brink of war: they exchanged missile fire, sent drones across each other's borders to conduct attacks, and engaged in aerial combat. The conflagration was thankfully short lived; after four days, the two sides declared a ceasefire, causing some analysts to dub the events the '100-hour war.' But the episode, however brief, may have reshaped deterrence dynamics between the nuclear-armed neighbors in a more lasting way. In the following interview, Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert and a senior fellow (nonresident) at the Asia Pacific Foundation, explains why the May 2025 clashes were unique from previous India-Pakistan strikes. 'The scale and the intensity of the recent conflict was so much greater than what we've seen for so long,' Kugelman told The Diplomat. Even after the ceasefire, the India-Pakistan relationship is far from returning to the status quo ante. India has 'suspended all trade with Pakistan, closed down the only open land border, and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty,' Kugelman pointed out. 'These are drastic steps, and, in the case of the IWT move, unprecedented.' With the benefit of time and hindsight, how serious was the India-Pakistan crisis of early May? What was different in the latest round of strikes, versus previous episodes in 2019 and 2016? It was very serious, given the level of escalation and the scale of the hostilities. I'd argue it was the biggest test of the nuclear deterrent since both countries formally became nuclear states in 1998 – with the only possible exception of the massive military mobilization along the border in 2001 and 2002. What we saw in May was part of a consistent pattern in India-Pakistan escalation dynamics over nearly a decade: Each side is comfortable using increasing amounts of limited conventional force below the nuclear threshold. In 2016, India staged what it described as 'surgical strikes' – commandos crossing the border to target terrorists on the other side. In 2019, India launched air strikes on Pakistan, resulting in a Pakistani response and a brief dogfight in the skies before the conflict wound down. In the most recent case, Operation Sindoor, India carried out air strikes that were greater in scale than in 2019, resulting in a more muscular Pakistani response. And, unlike in 2019, there was another phase in the conflict beyond the initial strike and counterstrike: Both sides launched missiles and drones against each other. This consistent pattern, however, may mask just how different this crisis was from the previous ones – and in ways that amplify just how serious the escalation risks could be when the next conflict breaks out. Four key differences stand out.
National Observer
13-06-2025
- Politics
- National Observer
Leaders on Canada's expanded G7 guest list will tackle climate, economy and security
Canada is bringing the world to Alberta for the G7 leaders summit in Kananaskis. As summit host, Prime Minister Mark Carney can invite any leaders he chooses — even those from countries outside the G7 club — as he attempts to shape Canada's foreign policy and global geopolitics. When asked on June 7 to explain how Canada decided on the list of non-G7 leaders to invite, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said the government was seeking a discussion of "very serious issues that affect the global economy and the geostrategic environment." Here's a closer look at the names on Carney's guest list. Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is a willing partner for Canada as it tries to shore up its trade and defence links across the Indo-Pacific. Both countries have shared values and small populations, and depend on a global rules-based system of trade to export large amounts of resources. In March, Carney announced a deal was in the works to have Ottawa partner with Australia on an early-warning radar detection system to use in the Arctic and across the US border. Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has tried to partner with countries across the Global South while advancing democracy and environmental protection. He'll be taking those themes to the COP30 summit in the Amazon this November. His office claimed this week that Carney will be attending that summit — Ottawa has yet to confirm. Brazil's president, widely known as Lula, has echoed Canadian concerns about online misinformation since a foiled coup plot in 2022. India Carney's most controversial invitation has been to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is arriving in Canada less than a year after the RCMP accused agents of his government of playing a role in "widespread violence" in Canada. Sikh separatist groups note that this month marks two years since the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which Canada has linked to New Delhi. India insists these claims have no substance. Sikh groups have promised to stage large protests during the G7 summit. But regional experts argue Canada should advance trade relations with the world's most populous country and commit to structured talks on security instead of derailing the entire relationship. Canada has promised to raise transnational repression at the summit, and the Asia Pacific Foundation has argued Ottawa and New Delhi should commit to law-enforcement talks on both that issue and India's concerns about violent extremism. Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto will attend the summit after years of Ottawa pursuing deeper ties with Indonesia — a demographic and economic giant in the Indo-Pacific. Canada and Indonesia signed a free-trade agreement last year and Ottawa aspires to sell small-scale nuclear technology to the island nation as it helps to develop small reactors for northern Canadian communities. Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum deliberated for more than three weeks before accepting Carney's invitation to attend the G7. Sen. Peter Boehm, who has played a key role in numerous G7 summits, noted that Sheinbaum does not travel abroad often and might have chosen to come based on the likelihood of a meeting with Trump and Carney or to make progress on the tariffs issue. "There's the possibility of having a short trilateral on the side," he said. The ideal outcome would be a clear timeline for the coming review of the North American trade deal known as CUSMA, Boehm said, along with some immediate progress. For example, "if we can make a deal that will allow everyone to step back and say, 'well, we got something out of that and, tariffs are coming down.'" South Korea President Lee Jae-myung is eager to present South Korea as a stable, democratic country following a turbulent period that started with the former president declaring martial law last December. The country has since maintained the rule of law and elected a leader who promised to reverse policies that sought to end gender-equality programming. South Korea has long aspired to join the G7 and argues that its economic and regional clout is similar to that of G7 member Japan. Ottawa and Seoul have pledged deeper co-operation on maritime security, critical minerals and the environment. In November, South Korea will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, and Canada's prime minister has attended every APEC summit over the past two decades. South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa will host the separate G20 summit in November — a much larger and more diverse group than the G7 that also tends to see less consensus. Boehm said the G20 host can act as a bridge to the G7 by making the topics and outcomes at the smaller summit more relevant to the needs of developing countries. Ramaphosa has attended previous G7 meetings and was in the room when Canada sought action on oceans protection at its 2008 summit. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might get another chance to speak with US President Donald Trump in Alberta, as Washington continues to push for an end to the war that started with Russia's 2014 seizure of Crimea and escalated to a full-scale invasion in 2022. Ottawa and its peers fear the US is too obliging to Moscow and that a bad deal will only create more instability in Europe. Ukraine has credited Canada with trying to advance Kyiv's cause at the G7. Canada has been leading efforts aimed at forfeiting Russian assets held in Western countries to help finance Ukraine's defence, with limited success. United Arab Emirates The Canadian Press has learned that Carney invited the United Arab Emirates to attend the G7 summit, which could mean UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan comes to Alberta. But as of Thursday evening, Abu Dhabi had not said whether it had accepted Canada's invitation. A readout Thursday from Carney's office said the two leaders spoke and discussed "opportunities to deepen bilateral collaboration in these sectors," and committed to remaining in contact. Canada has described the wealthy Gulf country as "a critical partner" in humanitarian efforts such as foreign aid projects and the resettlement of vulnerable Afghans. Sudanese groups have ccriticized Canada for not publicly calling out the UAE for its role in arming the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary the US has accused of carrying out a genocide in Sudan. The UAE has strenuously denied involvement in the conflict. Not coming: Saudi Arabia Carney also invited Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the G7 summit, but Canadian officials said Thursday morning the country will not be attending. "The attempt will be for the prime minister to meet with as many of the leaders as possible," said an official briefing media on background, who said there was no complete list of invitees as of Thursday morning. Ottawa and Riyadh restored full diplomatic ties in May 2023, five years after the Liberal government's public comments on women's rights led Saudi Arabia to expel Canada's ambassador. The US Central Intelligence Agency says the Crown prince ordered the 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Saudi Arabia is among Canada's largest export destinations for military equipment. International organizations Canada could welcome NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and World Bank President Ajay Banga to the summit, Boehm said, and possibly even the secretary general of the United Nations or leaders of the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. A federal official said Thursday that Canada's G7 presidency has involved work with other groups, including the African Union and the Gulf Co-operation Council. It's not known if leaders of those groups will be present.
Global News
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Global News
Non-G7 leaders set to tackle climate, economy and security at summit
Canada is bringing the world to Alberta for the G7 leaders summit in Kananaskis. As summit host, Prime Minister Mark Carney can invite any leaders he chooses — even those from countries outside the G7 club — as he attempts to shape Canada's foreign policy and global geopolitics. When asked on June 7 to explain how Canada decided on the list of non-G7 leaders to invite, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said the government was seeking a discussion of 'very serious issues that affect the global economy and the geostrategic environment.' Here's a closer look at the names on Carney's guest list. Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is a willing partner for Canada as it tries to shore up its trade and defence links across the Indo-Pacific. Story continues below advertisement Both countries have shared values and small populations, and depend on a global rules-based system of trade to export large amounts of resources. In March, Carney announced a deal was in the works to have Ottawa partner with Australia on an early-warning radar detection system to use in the Arctic and across the U.S. border. Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has tried to partner with countries across the Global South while advancing democracy and environmental protection. He'll be taking those themes to the COP30 summit in the Amazon this November. His office claimed this week that Carney will be attending that summit — Ottawa has yet to confirm. Brazil's president, widely known as Lula, has echoed Canadian concerns about online misinformation since a foiled coup plot in 2022. 0:49 'Don't lose your cool': G7 leaders should ignore Trump outbursts at Alberta summit, Chrétien says India Carney's most controversial invitation has been to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is arriving in Canada less than a year after the RCMP accused agents of his government of playing a role in 'widespread violence' in Canada. Story continues below advertisement Sikh separatist groups note that this month marks two years since the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which Canada has linked to New Delhi. India insists these claims have no substance. Sikh groups have promised to stage large protests during the G7 summit. But regional experts argue Canada should advance trade relations with the world's most populous country and commit to structured talks on security instead of derailing the entire relationship. Canada has promised to raise transnational repression at the summit, and the Asia Pacific Foundation has argued Ottawa and New Delhi should commit to law-enforcement talks on both that issue and India's concerns about violent extremism. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto will attend the summit after years of Ottawa pursuing deeper ties with Indonesia — a demographic and economic giant in the Indo-Pacific. Canada and Indonesia signed a free-trade agreement last year and Ottawa aspires to sell small-scale nuclear technology to the island nation as it helps to develop small reactors for northern Canadian communities. 2:00 Calgary mayor asks residents for patience as G7 nears Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum deliberated for more than three weeks before accepting Carney's invitation to attend the G7. Story continues below advertisement Sen. Peter Boehm, who has played a key role in numerous G7 summits, noted that Sheinbaum does not travel abroad often and might have chosen to come based on the likelihood of a meeting with Trump and Carney or to make progress on the tariffs issue. 'There's the possibility of having a short trilateral on the side,' he said. The ideal outcome would be a clear timeline for the coming review of the North American trade deal known as CUSMA, Boehm said, along with some immediate progress. For example, 'if we can make a deal that will allow everyone to step back and say, 'well, we got something out of that and, tariffs are coming down.'' South Korea President Lee Jae-myung is eager to present South Korea as a stable, democratic country following a turbulent period that started with the former president declaring martial law last December. The country has since maintained the rule of law and elected a leader who promised to reverse policies that sought to end gender-equality programming. South Korea has long aspired to join the G7 and argues that its economic and regional clout is similar to that of G7 member Japan. Ottawa and Seoul have pledged deeper co-operation on maritime security, critical minerals and the environment. Story continues below advertisement In November, South Korea will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, and Canada's prime minister has attended every APEC summit over the past two decades. South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa will host the separate G20 summit in November — a much larger and more diverse group than the G7 that also tends to see less consensus. Boehm said the G20 host can act as a bridge to the G7 by making the topics and outcomes at the smaller summit more relevant to the needs of developing countries. Ramaphosa has attended previous G7 meetings and was in the room when Canada sought action on oceans protection at its 2008 summit. 1:20 'Not a good idea': Liberal MP Sukh Dhaliwal concerned about Modi's G7 invite Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might get another chance to speak with U.S. President Donald Trump in Alberta, as Washington continues to push for an end to the war that started with Russia's 2014 seizure of Crimea and escalated to a full-scale invasion in 2022. Story continues below advertisement Ottawa and its peers fear the U.S. is too obliging to Moscow and that a bad deal will only create more instability in Europe. Ukraine has credited Canada with trying to advance Kyiv's cause at the G7. Canada has been leading efforts aimed at forfeiting Russian assets held in Western countries to help finance Ukraine's defence, with limited success. United Arab Emirates The Canadian Press has learned that Carney invited the United Arab Emirates to attend the G7 summit, which could mean UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan comes to Alberta. But as of Thursday evening, Abu Dhabi had not said whether it had accepted Canada's invitation. A readout Thursday from Carney's office said the two leaders spoke and discussed 'opportunities to deepen bilateral collaboration in these sectors,' and committed to remaining in contact. Canada has described the wealthy Gulf country as 'a critical partner' in humanitarian efforts such as foreign aid projects and the resettlement of vulnerable Afghans. Sudanese groups have ccriticized Canada for not publicly calling out the UAE for its role in arming the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary the U.S. has accused of carrying out a genocide in Sudan. The UAE has strenuously denied involvement in the conflict. 2:24 Carney lays out G7 priorities, faces criticism over Modi invite Not coming: Saudi Arabia Carney also invited Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the G7 summit, but Canadian officials said Thursday morning the country will not be attending. Story continues below advertisement 'The attempt will be for the prime minister to meet with as many of the leaders as possible,' said an official briefing media on background, who said there was no complete list of invitees as of Thursday morning. Ottawa and Riyadh restored full diplomatic ties in May 2023, five years after the Liberal government's public comments on women's rights led Saudi Arabia to expel Canada's ambassador. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency says the Crown prince ordered the 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Saudi Arabia is among Canada's largest export destinations for military equipment. International organizations Canada could welcome NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and World Bank President Ajay Banga to the summit, Boehm said, and possibly even the secretary general of the United Nations or leaders of the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. A federal official said Thursday that Canada's G7 presidency has involved work with other groups, including the African Union and the Gulf Co-operation Council. It's not known if leaders of those groups will be present.
Winnipeg Free Press
13-06-2025
- Politics
- Winnipeg Free Press
Leaders on Canada's expanded G7 guest list to tackle climate, economy and security
OTTAWA – Canada is bringing the world to Alberta for the G7 leaders summit in Kananaskis. As summit host, Prime Minister Mark Carney can invite any leaders he chooses — even those from countries outside the G7 club — as he attempts to shape Canada's foreign policy and global geopolitics. When asked on June 7 to explain how Canada decided on the list of non-G7 leaders to invite, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand said the government was seeking a discussion of 'very serious issues that affect the global economy and the geostrategic environment.' Here's a closer look at the names on Carney's guest list. Australia Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is a willing partner for Canada as it tries to shore up its trade and defence links across the Indo-Pacific. Both countries have shared values and small populations, and depend on a global rules-based system of trade to export large amounts of resources. In March, Carney announced a deal was in the works to have Ottawa partner with Australia on an early-warning radar detection system to use in the Arctic and across the U.S. border. Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has tried to partner with countries across the Global South while advancing democracy and environmental protection. He'll be taking those themes to the COP30 summit in the Amazon this November. His office claimed this week that Carney will be attending that summit — Ottawa has yet to confirm. Brazil's president, widely known as Lula, has echoed Canadian concerns about online misinformation since a foiled coup plot in 2022. India Carney's most controversial invitation has been to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is arriving in Canada less than a year after the RCMP accused agents of his government of playing a role in 'widespread violence' in Canada. Sikh separatist groups note that this month marks two years since the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, which Canada has linked to New Delhi. India insists these claims have no substance. Sikh groups have promised to stage large protests during the G7 summit. But regional experts argue Canada should advance trade relations with the world's most populous country and commit to structured talks on security instead of derailing the entire relationship. Canada has promised to raise transnational repression at the summit, and the Asia Pacific Foundation has argued Ottawa and New Delhi should commit to law-enforcement talks on both that issue and India's concerns about violent extremism. Indonesia President Prabowo Subianto will attend the summit after years of Ottawa pursuing deeper ties with Indonesia — a demographic and economic giant in the Indo-Pacific. Canada and Indonesia signed a free-trade agreement last year and Ottawa aspires to sell small-scale nuclear technology to the island nation as it helps to develop small reactors for northern Canadian communities. Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum deliberated for more than three weeks before accepting Carney's invitation to attend the G7. Sen. Peter Boehm, who has played a key role in numerous G7 summits, noted that Sheinbaum does not travel abroad often and might have chosen to come based on the likelihood of a meeting with Trump and Carney or to make progress on the tariffs issue. 'There's the possibility of having a short trilateral on the side,' he said. The ideal outcome would be a clear timeline for the coming review of the North American trade deal known as CUSMA, Boehm said, along with some immediate progress. For example, 'if we can make a deal that will allow everyone to step back and say, 'well, we got something out of that and, tariffs are coming down.'' South Korea President Lee Jae-myung is eager to present South Korea as a stable, democratic country following a turbulent period that started with the former president declaring martial law last December. The country has since maintained the rule of law and elected a leader who promised to reverse policies that sought to end gender-equality programming. South Korea has long aspired to join the G7 and argues that its economic and regional clout is similar to that of G7 member Japan. Ottawa and Seoul have pledged deeper co-operation on maritime security, critical minerals and the environment. In November, South Korea will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum, and Canada's prime minister has attended every APEC summit over the past two decades. South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa will host the separate G20 summit in November — a much larger and more diverse group than the G7 that also tends to see less consensus. Boehm said the G20 host can act as a bridge to the G7 by making the topics and outcomes at the smaller summit more relevant to the needs of developing countries. Ramaphosa has attended previous G7 meetings and was in the room when Canada sought action on oceans protection at its 2008 summit. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might get another chance to speak with U.S. President Donald Trump in Alberta, as Washington continues to push for an end to the war that started with Russia's 2014 seizure of Crimea and escalated to a full-scale invasion in 2022. Ottawa and its peers fear the U.S. is too obliging to Moscow and that a bad deal will only create more instability in Europe. Ukraine has credited Canada with trying to advance Kyiv's cause at the G7. Canada has been leading efforts aimed at forfeiting Russian assets held in Western countries to help finance Ukraine's defence, with limited success. United Arab Emirates The Canadian Press has learned that Carney invited the United Arab Emirates to attend the G7 summit, which could mean UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan comes to Alberta. But as of Thursday evening, Abu Dhabi had not said whether it had accepted Canada's invitation. A readout Thursday from Carney's office said the two leaders spoke and discussed 'opportunities to deepen bilateral collaboration in these sectors,' and committed to remaining in contact. Canada has described the wealthy Gulf country as 'a critical partner' in humanitarian efforts such as foreign aid projects and the resettlement of vulnerable Afghans. Sudanese groups have ccriticized Canada for not publicly calling out the UAE for its role in arming the Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary the U.S. has accused of carrying out a genocide in Sudan. The UAE has strenuously denied involvement in the conflict. Not coming: Saudi Arabia Carney also invited Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the G7 summit, but Canadian officials said Thursday morning the country will not be attending. 'The attempt will be for the prime minister to meet with as many of the leaders as possible,' said an official briefing media on background, who said there was no complete list of invitees as of Thursday morning. Ottawa and Riyadh restored full diplomatic ties in May 2023, five years after the Liberal government's public comments on women's rights led Saudi Arabia to expel Canada's ambassador. The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency says the Crown prince ordered the 2018 assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Monday Mornings The latest local business news and a lookahead to the coming week. Saudi Arabia is among Canada's largest export destinations for military equipment. International organizations Canada could welcome NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and World Bank President Ajay Banga to the summit, Boehm said, and possibly even the secretary general of the United Nations or leaders of the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. A federal official said Thursday that Canada's G7 presidency has involved work with other groups, including the African Union and the Gulf Co-operation Council. It's not known if leaders of those groups will be present. This report by The Canadian Press was first published June 13, 2025.
