Asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit the Moon in 2032 causing rare meteor showers visible from Earth and risk for satellites

Time of India

11 hours ago

Astronomers have been keeping a close watch on
asteroid 2024 YR4
since its detection late last year. While initial observations sparked concern about a potential Earth impact, updated trajectory models have now ruled out that possibility.
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However, scientists warn there is still a 4% chance that the asteroid could collide with the Moon in 2032. Though small measuring only 175 to 220 feet in diameter its speed and angle could unleash enormous energy upon impact, carving out a half-mile-wide crater on the lunar surface. Such an event would not only be scientifically historic but could also generate a rare meteor shower and pose serious risks to satellites in low-Earth orbit.
This potential impact is pushing astronomers to track the asteroid with unprecedented precision.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit big moon crater and cause rare meteor showers
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is only 175–220 feet wide, roughly the height of a 15-story building but travelling at thousands of miles per hour, its impact energy could equal millions of tons of TNT. If it strikes the Moon, models predict it will create a crater more than half a mile wide, similar in size to some craters formed by much larger meteorites billions of years ago.
Such energy release would blast debris into space, ejecting chunks of lunar rock at escape velocity.
Most ejected debris would disperse harmlessly into space, but some fragments could cross paths with Earth's orbit. While this debris poses no existential threat, it could trigger a rare meteor shower visible from Earth. Unlike normal fast-moving meteors, these fragments would travel slower, creating a brighter, longer-lasting celestial display.
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The meteor shower could last several days and might become one of the most memorable astronomical events of the decade.
How was asteroid 2024 YR4 discovered
The asteroid was discovered in late 2024, when automated sky-survey systems detected a fast-moving object in deep space. Initially, there were concerns about a possible Earth collision, but refined orbital models ruled out direct danger to our planet. Instead, focus shifted to the Moon, which now faces a small but notable risk of impact.
In March 2025, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observed the asteroid in detail, capturing images of its rocky, jagged surface and unexpectedly reflective properties. These observations are critical because surface composition and reflectivity (albedo) influence how sunlight affects its orbit—a factor known as the Yarkovsky effect—which can subtly change an asteroid's path over time.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact risks for satellites and benefits for space science
The biggest technical concern is space infrastructure.
Modern life relies heavily on low-Earth orbit satellites for communication, weather forecasting, GPS navigation, and internet services. The impact debris, while small (millimeter-sized), could still collide with satellites, causing surface damage or temporary outages. NASA's upcoming Lunar Gateway station, which will orbit the Moon, may also be at risk if even a small fraction of debris intersects its orbit.
Engineers are already considering protective measures and contingency plans for such scenarios.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 offers scientists a unique opportunity to study small-body impact physics and the Moon's surface dynamics. Additionally, it highlights the importance of planetary defense initiatives, which aim to detect and, if necessary, deflect asteroids that might threaten Earth or its immediate surroundings.
Astronomers plan to track YR4 closely until 2028, when it reappears in optimal observation range. That data will allow them to refine impact probability estimates and prepare for any potential outcomes.
If the asteroid does strike, humanity would witness a rare lunar event visible from Earth. While dangerous for satellites, the incident would have no catastrophic effect on life on our planet. On the positive side, it could give scientists invaluable insight into impact processes, help improve space debris mitigation, and even inspire new planetary defense strategies.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit the moon in 2032 related FAQs
Is asteroid 2024 YR4 going to hit Earth?
No. Current trajectory models show no risk to Earth, so there is no danger of a direct impact on our planet.
Could asteroid 2024 YR4 hit the Moon?
Yes, there is about a 4% chance of a collision with the Moon, which is why scientists continue to track it closely.
When could the asteroid hit the Moon?
If it does collide, the predicted impact window is sometime in 2032, based on existing orbital data.
What happens if the asteroid hits the Moon?
It could create a half-mile-wide crater, send lunar debris into space, and possibly trigger a rare meteor shower visible from Earth.
Will this event be dangerous for people on Earth?
No, life on Earth will not be affected. The only concern is for satellites and space infrastructure, which could face temporary risks.
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