Abandoning EU's 2035 zero-emission car target would risk one million jobs
Conversely, deploying no industrial strategy and going back on the 2035 target that all new cars and vans sold in the EU no longer emit carbon dioxide could result in a loss of one million auto industry jobs and two-thirds of planned battery investments, T&E said.
Challenged by high costs in their home markets and a gap to Chinese and US rivals in the electric vehicle industry, European carmakers face the effects of US President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on car imports, which have pushed many manufacturers to pull their forecasts for 2025.
After heavy lobbying, the European Parliament gave its backing to softening some EU CO2 emissions targets for cars and vans in May, but it has so far stuck to regulations that will bar the sale of fossil-fuel cars by 2035.
"It's a make or break moment for Europe's automotive industry as the global competition to lead the production of electric cars, batteries and chargers is immense," said Julia Poliscanova, senior director for vehicles and emobility supply chains at T&E.
If the 2035 goal is maintained and policies to boost domestic EV production are implemented, the automotive value chain's contribution to the European economy would grow 11% by 2035, the advocacy group said.
Job displacement in vehicle manufacturing could be offset by the creation of more than 100,000 jobs in battery making by 2030 and 120,000 in charging by 2035, it added.
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The SLPs then become tools of corporate image management rather than genuine vehicles for transformation. Often, they fund short-lived projects that decline and often collapse once the mine closes, unlinked to local integrated development plans (IDPs). Even where integration is attempted, weak municipal IDPs render it ineffective. Greenwashing is common. Companies promote their environmental, social and governance credentials, but scrutiny reveals minimal ecological remediation, long-term plans for restoration and socio-economic upliftment. Executives typically stay removed from community realities, unwilling to talk to residents and local authorities. This maintains a status quo in which firms pursue reputational insulation over authentic partnership. For communities, this entrenches an adversarial stance. Trust is absent where engagement is asymmetric. In the absence of viable livelihood alternatives, some residents resort to informal mining. Labelling them 'illegal' dehumanises people who are often driven by survival or coerced into impossible positions by organised crime bosses. The official response, including recent commentary after the Stilfontein disaster, has lacked empathy and insight. It's no surprise that resentment festers where people are treated as expendable. A political culture defined by patronage and corruption fails to meet the complexity of this problem. Land dispossession remains largely unresolved. Many mine-affected communities still have no title deeds, decades after democracy. That dispossession underpins the call for resource nationalism, especially among the young and disillusioned. There are strong veins of resentment here into which unscrupulous politicians can tap. While social grants may suppress open rebellion — some dialogue members mused whether welfare hadn't placated revolution — frustration simmers. Without structural change based on policy reform, the call for redress will grow louder. Efforts to build unified community responses face further obstacles. Activists expressed disillusionment with NGOs that impose external agendas. Some community gatekeepers, meanwhile, have been accused of colluding with mining firms or of blocking access to resources. Mining companies often work with whoever shouts the loudest, further muddying accountability. These dynamics prevent the emergence of a coherent response voice. Communities are not homogeneous, nor should we expect them to be, but this should not hinder the expression of a heterogeneous set of voices. The solution requires recognising that power is layered. Without coordination and organisation, communities remain vulnerable to fragmentation, as they struggle to build countervailing power. Yet unity is hard to achieve when trust is scarce and gatekeepers act in their own interest. Still, any serious vision for the sector must support such coordination as the basis for accountability and equitable negotiation. Two distinct imperatives shape mining's future. On one highway, government and industry seek investment-friendly conditions. On the other, communities seek restitution and opportunity. These paths need not be in conflict, but reconciliation demands a vision centred on shared prosperity. Capital must not be prioritised over labour and land. Community benefit must become a measure of mining's success. That shift requires credible, trackable metrics. One proposal is a national indicator for 'community well-being', with mining firms accountable for positive movement in that measure. This would reframe profitability to include social return, not just shareholder value. Others suggest revenue-sharing mechanisms such as Australia's 'royalties for regions' scheme. But concerns about corruption, especially in community trusts, remain valid. Without institutional reform, even well-designed systems can be subverted. A new social contract is overdue. Mining cannot continue to operate in enclaves of profit surrounded by poverty. It must embrace a model of co-determination with affected communities and acknowledge its historical legacy. That demands not just consultation but free, prior, informed and continued consent. It demands not just compliance, but transformation. Without these shifts, mining will remain a source of conflict instead of development. Ross Harvey is the chief research officer at Good Governance Africa (GGA)-SARO. Mining Dialogues 360° and GGA are hosting a plenary dialogue for all mining industry stakeholders on 29 July. To attend, please email
