Kieron Bowie is primed to be Scotland's No.9 heir apparent

The Herald Scotland

a day ago

It was an agreeable start to what could be a pivotal campaign in the 22-year-old's young career. Because, if things go well, we may not just be looking at a future Hibernian poster boy – and potentially someone they could sell on for a decent chunk of money – but a potential long-term answer for Scotland at the No.9 role.
With Lyndon Dykes and Che Adams coming into the latter stages of their career, and their availability and productivity for the national team having already dropped off over the last year or so, manager Steve Clarke has tried out a few younger options at the point of attack in recent international breaks. Tommy Conway and George Hirst from down south have each been given chances, while James Wilson at Hearts was made Scotland's youngest international of the modern era earlier this year. Then there's also Bowie, who was given his first cap as a substitute against Liechtenstein in June.
With Bobby Wales, once of Kilmarnock and now at Swansea City, also emerging as an exciting young talent, we could soon be entering a bright future at what's long been a problem position for the national team. You may indeed be wondering why this writer has singled out Bowie as Scotland's heir apparent in attack. Wilson and Wales, for instance, contributed about the same to the William Hill Premiership last season and are both younger, which therefore means they are perceived to have greater potential. And you don't have to look far into Bowie's past for reasons as to why it may seem foolish to bank on him becoming a Scotland hero: 14 goals in 85 games for Northampton hardly gets the pulses racing, after all.
But unless a Scottish striker goes to the very top and becomes the type of world-class attacking talent that can put a modest team on their back, it would likely come down to who suits the system the best. And unless things change dramatically for the better in what's already been an accomplished period for the international team across recent decades, Scotland's place in the food chain demands a certain type of player to lead the line.
The No.9 for most of the Steve Clarke era has been Lyndon Dykes – who himself has both a modest pedigree and record in front of goal. There's no doubt the Aussie-turned-Jock has his detractors within the Tartan Army support. He's not the most technically proficient of players, while his decision-making can also be erratic. He has matches where everything he touches turns to dust. But he's also had many big moments in a Scotland shirt and turned in performances where he's enabled the rest of the attack to function better around him.
You can argue causation and correlation, but Scotland's fortunes undeniably improved once Dykes switched allegiances from his homeland. He gave the team a focal point up front that Clarke had failed to find in Oli McBurnie, Oli Burke, Callum Paterson or the dying embers of Leigh Griffiths' prime years.
Dykes contributes not only by scoring a higher rate for Scotland than he has at club level, but by putting in a power of work. He's a willing runner and fighter and his huge, athletic frame, which enables him to make life miserable for opposing defenders.
It's the type of player in attack that Scotland have required for quite some time now.
Even these days with Italian football darlings Scott McTominay, Billy Gilmour and Lewis Ferguson among the ranks, our talent pool is still too shallow to try and go toe-to-toe with the best of world football. In order to continue dining at the high table we still need to play pragmatically.
Bowie is the up-and-comer who most resembles Dykes' game. He's a huge presence in attack who doesn't need to be provoked to get into a 90-minute fight with his marker. He isn't quite as mobile as Dykes but he still gets around the final third. And, promisingly, early evidence would suggest a stronger eye for goal. Bowie netted six goals in 21 games for Hibs last term, but by doing so in only 871 minutes, he had a better goals-per-90 minutes than all but three Scottish Premiership strikers — they were Player of the Year Daizen Maeda, top goalscorer Cyriel Dessers and Celtic's human victory-cigar Adam Idah.
In a campaign that, in many ways, never properly got going for the striker due to a hamstring injury which kept him out for months, there were many more promising numbers which stood out for Bowie. I compared his stats to 33 other Premiership centre-forwards from last term and he finished in the top three for percentage of shots on target and goal conversion, as well as touches inside the penalty area per 90 minutes. Demonstrating his willingness to battle, he also led all strikers in defensive actions, interceptions and fouls won (again, per 90).
The advanced stats also show some clear indications for improvement if he is going to discover his potential. Though he won fouls at a higher rate than any other striker, it was offset by committing the most as well (3 conceded to 2.89 won per game). He also only won 18.18 per cent of his aerial duels (the fifth worst tally) and he ranked quite poorly for many of the passing accuracy metrics. The latter two will be key if he is to establish himself at a higher level. He needs to win more flick-ons for team-mates to run onto, while it's little use initially making the ball stick in attack if you're going to give it right back again.
Returning to the positives, the game which stood out the most as an example of Bowie's ability to be a real force came in Hibs' 2-1 victory over Celtic at Easter Road in February. The youngster dominated both Cameron Carter-Vickers and Auston Trusty in a first-half performance where the hosts scored twice without reply. He would tire badly in the second period and be replaced on the hour. And this is where we may have to pump the breaks a little in terms of expectations based on what we saw last year. Bowie largely made his corn coming off the bench and wasn't as effective when he started matches. But the player admitted himself that the hamstring injury robbed him of 90-minute fitness that he wouldn't be able to fully regain until pre-season.
If he can reproduce what he did in 871 minutes across three/four times as much playing action this term then what could we be looking at? A player of the year nomination? A contender for the Premiership's golden boot? A regular place in the Scotland squad? None of that is implausible and that should be very exciting for both Hibs fans and Scotland supporters.