MLB 2025 Home Run Derby Predictions: Odds, Expert Picks, including Cal Raleigh, Oneil Cruz, James Wood
The Mariners' Cal Raleigh is having a historic season with 38 homers, marking the most by a catcher at the All-Star break in history. This season, Raleigh ranks ahead of MVP favorites (and non-HR derby contestants) Aaron Judge (35) and Shohei Ohtani (32) — and now, Raleigh is the favorite to win the Home Run Derby, but will have to overcome some tough historical trends to do so.
Raleigh will become the second-ever player to switch hit in the Derby (Adley Rutschman in 2023, lost 2nd round), plus no catcher has ever won the derby. This is year 39 of the event, so odds are against Raleigh despite him being the favorite.
The Twins' Byron Buxton is having a phenomenal comeback season and has the longest home of this field at 479 feet, while Oneil Cruz of the Pirates is second with a 463 footer and the Nationals' James Wood third at 451.
Matt Olson is also in the field after replacing his Braves' teammate Ronald Acuna Jr., who has dealt with some injuries the last few weeks. To round out the field, the Athletics Brent Rooker, Yankees' Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Junior Caminero of the Rays make up the eight-man field.
Home Run Derby Details & how to watch
Date: Monday, July 14, 2025
Time: 8:00PM EST
Site: Truist Park
City: Atlanta, GA
Network/Streaming: ESPN / ESPN2
Odds for the Home Run Derby
The latest odds as of Monday morning at BetMGM:
Cal Raleigh, Mariners (+275) - $10 to win $27.50
Oneil Cruz, Pirates (+350) - $10 to win $25
James Wood, Nationals (+400) - $10 to win $40
Matt Olson, Braves (+800) - $10 to win $80
Brent Rooker, Athletics (+850) - $10 to win $85
Byron Buxton, Twins (+900) - $10 to win $90
Junior Caminero, Rays (+1000) - $10 to win $100
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees (+1400) - $10 to win $140
Expert picks & predictions for tonight's game between the Marlins and the Orioles
'Cal Raleigh (+275) is on a truly historic run and he has the chance to accomplish something he manifested as an 8-year-old kid, a Home Run Derby Title. Most of America will be rooting for Raleigh and I will be too, but for the odds and historical aspect of being a catcher and switch hitting, I am not in love with betting on Raleigh.
My personal favorite pick is James Wood (+400). He is a superstar in the making for the Nationals and played four games in Atlanta this season and hit a homer in his first appearance, and has played seven games in Atlanta over the last season and a half, so he's familiar enough with Truist Park too — something Raleigh is not.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+1400) is on pace to shatter his career-high 24 homers last year. He's only 27-year-old, which is likely his prime or peak season, and he's the only player I've watched hit a homer in person this year, so I sprinted a few bucks on him for the +1400 value, although I admit, I do not expect this to win.'
Eric Froton (@CFFroton) likes James Wood to bring some hardware back to DC:
'James Wood (+400) has 24 homers and 69 RBI, which both rank tied for 8th in all of baseball. The 22-year-old, 6-foot-7 234-pounder that hits lefty may not be a household name, but he has all the makings of a home run derby winner in his second season.'
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