European markets head for lower open as investors eye U.S. megabill, trade updates
European markets across the U.K., France and Germany are heading for a negative start on Friday, according to IG data.
That follows a higher close on Thursday, with global equities boosted by a much stronger than expected U.S. jobs report. Officially, Wall Street is on a break for the 4 July holiday today.
However, investors are sure to be checking their phones for updates after U.S. President Donald Trump's flagship megabill passed in Congress. A host of changes lie ahead, including to taxes, social spending and energy policy.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) (C) signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act during an enrollment ceremony with fellow Republicans in the Rayburn Room at the U.S. Capitol on July 03, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty Images
We're meanwhile nearing Trump's July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations, which could see duties on key trading partners such as the European Union spike unless a deal is reached. Trump has said the U.S. will begin sending letters to countries setting out their tariff rates on exports to the U.S., with 10 to 12 nations set to receive theirs today.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg he expects around 100 countries will face a 10% levy, the baseline of the so-called 'reciprocal' tariffs.
The EU meanwhile says it is closing in on a "framework" trade deal, but that a full agreement will be impossible to reach by July 9.
— Jenni Reid, Matt Ward-Perkins
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Bloomberg
30 minutes ago
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Trump to Send Tariff Letters, Threatens Up to 70% Tariffs
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Yahoo
34 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs live updates: Trump to start sending out tariff letters as July 9 deadline looms
Time has run out for some US trade partners looking to make deals ahead of President Trump's July 9 deadline for tariffs to snap back to higher levels. Letters will start going out to countries on Friday to notify them of the tariff rates they will face on imports to the US, Trump told reporters, to go into effect on Aug. 1. The first 10 or 12 letters sent out will be followed by similar batches. 'By the ninth they'll be fully covered,' Trump said, per Bloomberg. 'They'll range in value from maybe 60% or 70% tariffs to 10% and 20% tariffs.' The Trump team has so far been focused on hammering out trade deals, though it has succeeded in nailing only three pacts so far.. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said around 100 partners would likely see a minimum "reciprocal" rate of 10% come next week, adding that he expects a "flurry" of deals to materialize before the deadline. Here is where things stand with various partners: China: The US has eased export restrictions on China for chip design software and ethane, a sign that trade tensions are calming between the two countries after they agreed in May to a framework to move toward a larger trade deal. Software firms like Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS) said they will now sell their chip design tools to Chinese customers again. The US also removed limits on ethane exports to China that it had set just weeks ago. Vietnam: Trump on Wednesday said he had reached a trade deal with Vietnam, one that will see the country's imports face a 20% tariff — lower than the 46% he had threatened in April. He also said Vietnamese goods would face a higher 40% tariff "on any transshipping" — when goods shipped from Vietnam originate from another country, like China. Many US goods will see no duty upon import to Vietnam. Japan: Trump earlier this week said negotiations with Japan had soured, saying he would force Japan to accept higher tariffs of "30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine." Notably, that proposal is higher than the 24% "Liberation Day" level. "They're very tough. You have to understand, they're very spoiled," he said. European Union: The EU has signaled it is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff on many of its exports but is seeking exemptions for pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft as part of a trade deal. Bessent said US-EU talks would continue through the weekend. Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on the bloc's imports. Canada: Canada has scrapped its digital services tax that was set to affect large US technology companies. The White House said trade talks between the two countries had resumed after Trump threatened to cut off trade talks. They are aiming for a deal by mid-July. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. President Trump said his administration will begin sending letters to trading partners on Friday laying out what tariff rates they will face on imports to the US. Countries will have to start paying the duties from Aug. 1, Trump told reporters on Thursday. The move marks a shift from earlier US optimism that talks would deliver scores of deals with its more than 170 trading partners, under pressure to beat a July 9 tariff deadline. The "take it or leave it" letters go out with just days to go to that deadline for resumption of sweeping tariffs laid out in April by Trump. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The US trade deal with Vietnam should be seen as a early sign to Asian countries that higher tariffs are not going anywhere. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Vietnam negotiators said on Thursday that they are still working with the US to finalize the details of the trade deal, which was announced by President Trump on Wednesday. No further details have been provided to businesses and investors beyond the tariff rates disclosed so far. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Treasury Secretary Bessent has been making the rounds today, talking about the Trump tax bill and tariffs as next week's July 9 deadline looms. Per Reuters, Bessent said around 100 countries are likely to see a "reciprocal" tariff of 10%: Bessent also said Trump would ultimately decide whether to extend that July 9 deadline for countries negotiating "in good faith." Bloomberg News reports Read more here. German car exports to the US fell in April and May as import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration hit German automakers' sales, according to data from the VDA industry association. Reuters reports: Read more here. Luxury watch specialist, Watches of Switzerland warned on Thursday that its profit margin could fall this year as the luxury watch sector adjusts to higher US tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more here. The South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Thursday that it still remains unclear if trade talks between Seoul and Washington can result in a deal before next week's deadline to avert sweeping tariffs from President Donald Trump. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. President Trump has his eye on any loopholes that China may use to swerve tariffs. Trump's two-tired trade deal with Vietnam takes aim at practices China has used to avoid US tariffs, such as the widespread shifting of production to Southeast Asian factories and the illegal "origin washing" of exports through their ports. Beijing has responded and said it was 'conducting an assessment' of the US-Vietnam trade deal, adding: 'We firmly oppose any party striking a deal at the expense of China's interests.' 'If such a situation arises, China will take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,' the ministry added. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The US and India are on the verge of sealing the deal when it comes to reducing tariffs. But there appears to be one sticking point ahead of President Trump's July 9 deadline and it centers around dairy and agriculture. Here's an explainer on why farm goods may hold up a trade deal between the two nations. Reuters reports: Read more here. China is growing more worried as President Trump strikes deals with other countries. On Thursday Beijing hit out at the US-Vietnam trade deal, amid concerns that the US is using "Liberation Day" tariff negotiations with countries to curb China's export machine. The deal with Vietnam, which was announced by the US President on Wednesday, lowers tariffs on Hanoi's exports from 46% to 20%, but it retains a 409% levy on t"trans-shipping" of goods, which China believes is aimed at its re-exports to the US. .The FT reports: Read more here. Indonesia plans to sign a $34 billion deal with US businesses next week to increase purchases and help secure a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline, its top economic minister said Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. The trade truce between the US and China may be holding for now, but China is becoming wary that it may thaw. Beijing's concerns stem from what may be happening elsewhere and the US's efforts to forge deals that could isolate Chinese firms from global supply chains. The US has removed export restrictions on chip design software and ethene shipments. China has responded by making concessions over its rare earth export controls. But despite this, China is still on edge. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Trade negotiations between the US and India have been moving forward. But unresolved issues over US dairy and agriculture have caused some disagreements between the two sides, according to sources familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. The US has removed export restrictions on chip design software and ethane shipments to China, easing trade tensions between the two countries. China recently made concessions over its rare earth export controls. Software companies Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence (CDNS), and Siemens (SIEGY) said they will now restore access for their Chinese customers. These firms develop important electronic design automation tools used in chipmaking. The US also lifted licensing rules for ethane producers. Earlier restrictions were part of Trump's response to China blocking rare earth exports, which had disrupted supply chains for cars, aerospace, and defense industries. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump had targeted Vietnam with some of the highest tariffs of any country on his April "Liberation Day." That's at least partly because he and top advisers have made Vietnam an example of a country that is allegedly "ripping off" the US. Vietnam has become the US's 10th-largest trade partner, according to US Census data. And it is the seventh-largest source of imports, sending goods worth over $130 billion. It contains factories for some of the biggest US-based apparel makers, including Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU). Vietnam became a destination for companies looking to diversify manufacturing as US-China tensions escalated over the past decade. Vietnam's trade surplus with the US ballooned to over $123 billion last year. This year's US trade deficit with Vietnam stood over $50 billion through just April as companies raced to move more operations out of China. President Trump followed up his previous announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam with some additional details on social media. "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam after speaking with To Lam, the Highly Respected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam," Trump posted on Truth Social. Trump wrote that the two sides agreed to a 20% tariff rate on all goods sent from Vietnam to the US and a 40% tariff rate on transshipment — essentially, when goods from China or other countries are routed through Vietnam. Tariffs on goods from the country were previously set to return to 46% on July 9. Vietnam also lowered tariffs on US goods to zero, Trump said, and is lowering trade barriers. The president suggested US automakers could introduce more SUVs to the Southeast Asian country. "In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade," Trump wrote. "In other words, they will 'OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,' meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff." The US and Vietnam are said to be very close to a establishing a trade framework that will see goods given a scaled range of tariffs depending on the percentage of foreign content, according to people familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariffs have hit electric vehicle maker, Rivian (RIVN) who reported a sharp fall in second-quarter deliveries on Wednesday as demand for its EVs took a hit from competition and tariff-driven economic uncertainty. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump said his administration will begin sending letters to trading partners on Friday laying out what tariff rates they will face on imports to the US. Countries will have to start paying the duties from Aug. 1, Trump told reporters on Thursday. The move marks a shift from earlier US optimism that talks would deliver scores of deals with its more than 170 trading partners, under pressure to beat a July 9 tariff deadline. The "take it or leave it" letters go out with just days to go to that deadline for resumption of sweeping tariffs laid out in April by Trump. Bloomberg reports: Read more here. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The US trade deal with Vietnam should be seen as a early sign to Asian countries that higher tariffs are not going anywhere. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Vietnam negotiators said on Thursday that they are still working with the US to finalize the details of the trade deal, which was announced by President Trump on Wednesday. No further details have been provided to businesses and investors beyond the tariff rates disclosed so far. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Treasury Secretary Bessent has been making the rounds today, talking about the Trump tax bill and tariffs as next week's July 9 deadline looms. Per Reuters, Bessent said around 100 countries are likely to see a "reciprocal" tariff of 10%: Bessent also said Trump would ultimately decide whether to extend that July 9 deadline for countries negotiating "in good faith." Bloomberg News reports Read more here. German car exports to the US fell in April and May as import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration hit German automakers' sales, according to data from the VDA industry association. Reuters reports: Read more here. Luxury watch specialist, Watches of Switzerland warned on Thursday that its profit margin could fall this year as the luxury watch sector adjusts to higher US tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more here. The South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Thursday that it still remains unclear if trade talks between Seoul and Washington can result in a deal before next week's deadline to avert sweeping tariffs from President Donald Trump. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. President Trump has his eye on any loopholes that China may use to swerve tariffs. Trump's two-tired trade deal with Vietnam takes aim at practices China has used to avoid US tariffs, such as the widespread shifting of production to Southeast Asian factories and the illegal "origin washing" of exports through their ports. Beijing has responded and said it was 'conducting an assessment' of the US-Vietnam trade deal, adding: 'We firmly oppose any party striking a deal at the expense of China's interests.' 'If such a situation arises, China will take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,' the ministry added. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The US and India are on the verge of sealing the deal when it comes to reducing tariffs. But there appears to be one sticking point ahead of President Trump's July 9 deadline and it centers around dairy and agriculture. Here's an explainer on why farm goods may hold up a trade deal between the two nations. Reuters reports: Read more here. China is growing more worried as President Trump strikes deals with other countries. On Thursday Beijing hit out at the US-Vietnam trade deal, amid concerns that the US is using "Liberation Day" tariff negotiations with countries to curb China's export machine. The deal with Vietnam, which was announced by the US President on Wednesday, lowers tariffs on Hanoi's exports from 46% to 20%, but it retains a 409% levy on t"trans-shipping" of goods, which China believes is aimed at its re-exports to the US. .The FT reports: Read more here. Indonesia plans to sign a $34 billion deal with US businesses next week to increase purchases and help secure a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline, its top economic minister said Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. The trade truce between the US and China may be holding for now, but China is becoming wary that it may thaw. Beijing's concerns stem from what may be happening elsewhere and the US's efforts to forge deals that could isolate Chinese firms from global supply chains. The US has removed export restrictions on chip design software and ethene shipments. China has responded by making concessions over its rare earth export controls. But despite this, China is still on edge. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Trade negotiations between the US and India have been moving forward. But unresolved issues over US dairy and agriculture have caused some disagreements between the two sides, according to sources familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. The US has removed export restrictions on chip design software and ethane shipments to China, easing trade tensions between the two countries. China recently made concessions over its rare earth export controls. Software companies Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence (CDNS), and Siemens (SIEGY) said they will now restore access for their Chinese customers. These firms develop important electronic design automation tools used in chipmaking. The US also lifted licensing rules for ethane producers. Earlier restrictions were part of Trump's response to China blocking rare earth exports, which had disrupted supply chains for cars, aerospace, and defense industries. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump had targeted Vietnam with some of the highest tariffs of any country on his April "Liberation Day." That's at least partly because he and top advisers have made Vietnam an example of a country that is allegedly "ripping off" the US. Vietnam has become the US's 10th-largest trade partner, according to US Census data. And it is the seventh-largest source of imports, sending goods worth over $130 billion. It contains factories for some of the biggest US-based apparel makers, including Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU). Vietnam became a destination for companies looking to diversify manufacturing as US-China tensions escalated over the past decade. Vietnam's trade surplus with the US ballooned to over $123 billion last year. This year's US trade deficit with Vietnam stood over $50 billion through just April as companies raced to move more operations out of China. President Trump followed up his previous announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam with some additional details on social media. "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam after speaking with To Lam, the Highly Respected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam," Trump posted on Truth Social. Trump wrote that the two sides agreed to a 20% tariff rate on all goods sent from Vietnam to the US and a 40% tariff rate on transshipment — essentially, when goods from China or other countries are routed through Vietnam. Tariffs on goods from the country were previously set to return to 46% on July 9. Vietnam also lowered tariffs on US goods to zero, Trump said, and is lowering trade barriers. The president suggested US automakers could introduce more SUVs to the Southeast Asian country. "In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade," Trump wrote. "In other words, they will 'OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,' meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff." The US and Vietnam are said to be very close to a establishing a trade framework that will see goods given a scaled range of tariffs depending on the percentage of foreign content, according to people familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariffs have hit electric vehicle maker, Rivian (RIVN) who reported a sharp fall in second-quarter deliveries on Wednesday as demand for its EVs took a hit from competition and tariff-driven economic uncertainty. Reuters reports: Read more here. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
35 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Markets' 90-day tariff pause rollercoaster nears an uncertain end
GDANSK/LONDON (Reuters) -The deadline U.S. President Donald Trump set for major trading partners to strike deals with Washington or face hefty tariffs expires next week, bringing to a close 90 days of volatility but leaving global investors in the dark over what will happen next. Trump's propensity to issue a threat, or impose a new tariff, only to reverse course shortly afterwards has led to turmoil over the past three months. Investors, however, have now become somewhat inured to this sort of policymaking on the fly. And, as a result, there is little evidence at this point that many are preparing for fireworks on July 9. Instead, most expect some kind of delay, pause or compromise. What that will look like, however, is anyone's guess. Here is a snapshot of where major markets are now, relative to where they were when Trump dropped his initial tariffs bombshell on April 2: TAKING STOCK OF STOCKS Global stock markets have staged a strong recovery following the intense volatility triggered by Trump's tariff announcement. The MSCI World index, which fell 10% between April 2 and April 9, the day Trump paused the tariffs, has hit successive record highs and gained over 11% since the original "Liberation Day" announcement. Global equities got another boost in May, when the U.S. and China reached a temporary truce, pausing many tariffs for another 90 days. Geopolitical tensions, including Israel's recent strikes on Iran and Washington's subsequent bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, briefly reined in sentiment but have not derailed the broader rally. The S&P 500, which had lagged other major equity markets earlier in the year, has closed those gaps, gaining over 10% since April 2, and is neck and neck with the MSCI all-country index, which excludes the United States. There's an important caveat, however. The S&P has only hit record highs in dollar terms. The weakness in the U.S. currency has eroded the returns for overseas investors. In euro or Swiss franc terms, for example, the index is still about 10% below February's record high, while in pounds, it's 7% below the sterling-denominated peak. DOLLAR DECLINE The U.S. dollar, widely regarded as the world's most powerful and stable currency, has suffered a knock to its reputation from Trump's tariffs and the subsequent 90-day pause. The dollar index, which reflects the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six others including the euro and the Japanese yen, suffered its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining by approximately 11%. It has fallen by 6.6% since April 2 alone. Against the currencies of some of the United States' biggest trading partners, the decline has been even more marked. It has lost some 8% against the euro and the Mexican peso since then and 5% against the Canadian dollar. Vincent Mortier, the CIO of Europe's largest asset manager Amundi, said the euro has plenty more room to run, especially as U.S. debt worries are also driving the dollar down. "I won't be surprised if by the end of next year we start to revisit the $1.30 level," he said, highlighting that at its 2008 peak, the euro got as high as $1.60. FOR EXPORTERS, CERTAINTY IS THE PRIZE European shares have more than recovered losses suffered since Trump's "Liberation Day". But strength in the euro and anxiety over tariffs have kept them below March's record highs. Large exporting sectors such as pharma and autos, which make up around one-third of EU exports to the United States, have rebounded too, but have been more volatile. Brussels is reportedly open to a U.S. deal that would apply a universal 10% tariff on many of its exports, something several investors would view favourably should it be confirmed. Citi said markets risk being caught offside if tariffs are reimposed at 20% or reach 50%. "Trump is truly unpredictable, but if it's really around 10%, I think the markets will react very well," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest. The impact of the trade talks extends beyond Europe, however, with automakers in Japan also being watched. Citi's base case is for a sustained 25% tariff, while a surprise cut to 10% could unlock a 50% upside for Japanese auto stocks. ALL THAT GLITTERS Gold has featured as the hedge of choice against an array of risks, from tariff-induced inflation, to geopolitical risk and a shift away from the U.S. dollar. The price has hit record after record, rising 26% so far this year to around $3,330 an ounce. Gold has eclipsed bitcoin, which has gained about 14% year to date, and even Nvidia, the maker of chips that power AI capabilities, whose shares went parabolic last year and have risen about 18% this year. Since April 2, gold's ascent has gathered pace, fuelled by purchases from central banks, fund managers and even individuals. A survey by UBS Asset Management this week showed 39% of respondents said they planned to increase their gold holdings, compared with 15% last year. The independence of the Federal Reserve - whose chair, Jerome Powell, Trump has berated repeatedly for not cutting interest rates fast enough - is one of the key concerns cited in the survey.
