What's in the one-in-one-out migrant deal between the UK and France?

Al Jazeera

2 days ago

The United Kingdom and France are close to a new agreement aimed at preventing tens of thousands of migrants from crossing the English Channel from France in small boats, UK media reported on Thursday.
French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in London on Tuesday for a three-day visit, marking the first state visit by a European leader since Britain's exit from the European Union.
Here is all we know about the 'one-in-one-out' migrant deal being discussed during a bilateral summit between Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London.
What's in the deal Macron and Starmer are discussing?
The deal is aimed at deterring migrants from making dangerous trips across the English Channel from France to the UK in small boats. This year so far, more than 20,000 people have undertaken this journey.
At the start of the summit with Macron on Thursday, Starmer said the two must 'apply our collective strength and leadership' to the challenges of undocumented migration.
'We all agree that the situation in the Channel cannot go on as it is so we're bringing new tactics into play and a new intent to tackle illegal migration and break the business model of the criminal gangs.'
Many migrants without visas or permits departing France by sea attempt to cross to the UK in small, inflatable boats. They frequently pay large sums of money to gangs who arrange the boats in northern France. Journeys can be incredibly dangerous and people have died making the crossing.
Under a new agreement, France would agree to take back asylum seekers who have crossed over to the UK and who cannot prove a family connection to the UK. For each migrant France takes back, the UK would grant asylum to one migrant from France who can prove a family connection to the UK.
During the initial stages of the agreement, details of which were reported by French newspaper Le Monde, the UK would initially send about 50 migrants to France per week. Le Monde also reported that the UK would only be able to return 2,600 migrants in a single year.
The UK press quoted a government source on Thursday that plans would be scaled up if the initial scheme is successful.
Who is to blame for the influx of people by boat to the UK?
Both France and the UK have laid the blame on each other.
One of France's main criticisms of the UK is that it attracts migrants without visas because UK laws are too lenient or not adequately enforced. In his speech to Parliament during his state visit on Tuesday, Macron said that one-third of all migrants arriving in France intend to move on to the UK.
During negotiations with the UK 18 months ago when he was interior minister, Gerald Darmanin, France's current justice minister, said: 'Britain must do something to make itself less attractive and change the rules of their labour market because you can work without papers in the UK,' he said.
The UK disputes this, saying people are drawn to it because of family or diaspora ties, as well as many being able to speak English. Instead, some politicians in the UK have blamed France for not policing its northern shores enough. However, Starmer is also expected to unveil new plans to crack down harder on illegal work in the UK.
France, in turn, says it is making huge efforts to deter migrant departures from northern beaches and to take action against people-smuggling gangs.
Why is this agreement being discussed now?
The deal is being discussed because of the rising number of unauthorised migrants arriving from France to the UK, Peter Walsh, a senior researcher at the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, told Al Jazeera.
Just one year since Starmer's Labour party won a landslide election, the prime minister's popularity has tanked in the UK – in large part because of the failure to stop undocumented migration – while support for the far-right, anti-migration Reform UK party has soared.
In particular, Reform's manifesto pledges to clamp down on migrants coming to the UK in small boats. It states: 'Illegal migrants who come to the UK will be detained and deported. And if needed, migrants in small boats will be picked up and taken back to France.'
The Conservative Party, which was in power before Starmer won last year's general election, pledged to impose a binding cap for legal migration and to deport asylum seekers who arrive by irregular means to Rwanda for processing and potential resettlement. Labour scrapped this plan as soon as it came to power.
As of July 7, immigration and asylum stand as the most significant issue in the UK, at 51 percent, according to polling by YouGov.
According to commentary in UK media, Starmer's meeting with Macron also holds symbolic significance, as it allows the British PM to show that he has been able to maintain a good relationship with his main European partners since he negotiated a 'reset' trade deal with the EU in May.
How many people cross the English Channel in small boats each year?
This year, 21,117 people crossed the English Channel from France to the UK in small boats as of July 6, according to UK government data. This was a 56 percent increase in the number of people crossing in small boats during the same period in 2024.
In the whole of 2024, nearly 37,000 people crossed the English Channel in small boats, bringing the weekly average to about 700 arrivals.
In the past year, 73 people have died trying to cross the English Channel, the highest number recorded in one year so far, according to data by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), an intergovernmental organisation within the United Nations.
Small boat arrivals made up one-third of all asylum applications in 2024, according to an analysis by the Migration Observatory based on statistics from the UK Home Office.
Why do so many people make this risky crossing?
Walsh told Al Jazeera that people take the risk to cross the Channel for a wide range of reasons. 'One is the presence of family members, friends, and members of their community already in the UK,' he said.
He explained that because the UK is no longer part of the EU following Brexit, it does not have access to the bloc's asylum fingerprint database any more. Therefore, British authorities cannot know if people who arrive in small boats have already claimed asylum in an EU country.
'If it did, the UK would be able to dismiss the claims,' he said. 'The UK is also no longer a part of the Dublin system that would allow for such asylum claimants to be returned to the EU. Migrants understand this, so view reaching the UK as giving them another chance at securing residence in the UK.'
The Dublin regulation – the framework for the EU's rules on asylum seekers – establishes the criteria that determine which EU member state is responsible for examining asylum applications submitted by someone who is originally from a third country.
Between 2018 and 2024, 68 percent of asylum applications from migrants who arrived in small boats were granted in the UK. This was higher than the grant rate for asylum applications generally, which was 57 percent for the same duration. This may be another reason people are attracted to the UK, experts say.
What steps have France and the UK taken to stop boats crossing the English Channel?
In March 2023, the UK, under former Conservative PM Rishi Sunak, signed a three-year deal with France, under which the UK agreed to pay France 480 million pounds ($650m) to tighten its border patrols and surveillance.
Under this deal, France agreed to deploy 500 officers and provide a new detention centre in France, which would be operational by the end of 2026. France also agreed to increase funding for stricter enforcement, without specifying the amount of money.
Separately, in June this year, France agreed to come up with a plan to intercept small boats heading to the UK, for the first time, expanding its navy with six patrol boats that will rescue migrants but also intercept them from heading to the UK.
Paris has agreed to do this for boats which are within 300 metres (1,000ft) from the French shore, and has asked the UK for extra funding to fund the police and equipment to enforce these interceptions, according to UK media.
French police have recently taken to damaging the small boats, slashing their rubber frames with knives. The French Interior Ministry told The Associated Press that the police had not been ordered to do this, however.
What are the criticisms of the new deal under discussion?
Since an average of 700 migrants enter the UK by small boat each week, if the UK government sends an average of 50 people back to France per week, that would amount to just one in 14 being returned.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp of the opposition Conservative Party told The Times newspaper: 'This deal will mean that 94 percent of illegal migrants crossing the Channel will get to stay. That is pathetic and will not deter anyone. By contrast, the Rwanda deterrent would have seen 100 percent of illegal migrants removed and that would have worked to deter people crossing the Channel. Keir Starmer's failure continues.'
The plan could potentially face a legal challenge under the UN Refugee Convention, which mandates asylum seekers' rights to request protection.
French officials are also critical of the deal, cautious it could result in France becoming a 'return hub' for migrants that the UK refuses to accept. 'We are putting ourselves into the hands of the British without minimal reciprocal elements,' an unnamed French official involved in the talks told Le Monde.
The policy could also provide ammunition against Macron for his right-wing political critics, who may question why he has agreed to take back migrants wanting to live in Britain.
The UK is not subject to the EU's Dublin regulations, while France is. This makes the status of migrants returning from Britain to France unclear, causing concern among other European nations, who are upset with France for bilaterally negotiating the deal without consulting the EU.
'Why should other Europeans be obliged to take these returns under EU, Dublin rules when they result from French obligation under a bilateral deal with the UK, a non-EU member, that France negotiated without asking us?' The Times quoted an unnamed EU diplomat as saying on Thursday.
A deal is also opposed by the southern European countries of Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta and Spain, who have been receiving unauthorised migrants at an increasing rate, the Financial Times reported. These countries are concerned that if migrants are sent back to France from the UK, they may try to enter southern Europe from France instead.
As the 2000s came to a close, the immigrant population multiplied by more than fivefold in Spain, Italy and Greece, according to a 2016 research article written by scholars from the University of Liege in Belgium.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said on Wednesday during Prime Minister's Questions in Parliament that the UK must refuse to accept 'undocumented males' coming in small boats as part of a deal with France. Farage said Starmer should not bow to an 'increasingly arrogant, anti-Brexit French president'. Starmer responded, saying Farage's approach is to 'break everything and claim that's how you fix things'.
Weighing the viability of an agreement between Paris and London, Walsh said: 'A returns deal may have an impact if it affects enough people. We don't know how many people could plausibly be returned to France under this deal, but there's a risk that if an insufficiently low share of individuals are returned, then people wishing to reach the UK by small boat may see the risk of return as another risk worth taking – alongside the much greater risk of getting in a small boat.'