Shayne O'Cass's race-by-race tips, analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday
Form expert Shayne O'Cass analyses all 10 races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, presenting his race-by-race tips and analysis.
• PUNT LIKE A PRO: Become a Racenet iQ member and get expert tips – with fully transparent return on investment statistics – from Racenet's team of professional punters at our Pro Tips section. SUBSCRIBE NOW!
â– â– â– â– â–
PRETTY TAVI (12) has a very famous seventh dam, none other than Chicquita who was a champion on and off the track. He had quite good form in Victoria but was never what you call 'city class'. That's not the case now that he is in NSW, Hawkesbury to be precise; three Midway runs, all of them very good. KHUMBILA (6) is ready, in fact is crying out for 1300m (and more) third-up. Has finally drawn a good alley and that could make all the difference. ROLLING MAGIC (2) has 'Championships form'.
BET: PRETTY TAVI (12) to win.
â– â– â– â– â–
RED RAGS TO BULLS (10) has contested two Highways prior to this, finishing third to Super Norwest in the first and fourth to the same horse here at Rosehill two weeks ago. If he is going to win one, probably be this one. THINK LIKE PADDY (1) ticks all the boxes so let me just throw in a bit of trivia regarding the name. He is by So You Think and was bred by Patrick Hogan (who used to call Sir Tristram Paddy). This is Sir Patrick's amazing Gay Poss family.
BET: RED RAGS TO BULLS (10) each-way.
â– â– â– â– â–
PRETTY POWERFUL (12) 's 11th of 12 at Randwick last Saturday was best summed up by the Stewards; Began awkwardly. Held up over the final 400m and, as a result, was unable to be fully tested. End quote. And that's putting it mildly. Can't imagine the same thing happening this weekend with barrier 11 of 12. Always been a fan of AGITA (11). This is a nice race for the son of Adelaide to resume in. KADALL (6) has finished on the podium at 15 of 21 starts. Deserves another win and is getting close too.
BET: PRETTY POWERFUL (12) each-way, box trifecta 6,8,11,12.
â– â– â– â– â–
PAJANTI (6) was a $500,000 yearling not so much because she is a Pierro, but the fact that her third dam is the broodmare gem of all gems, Shantha's Choice. Gerald Ryan co-trains Pajanti, he trained her (handy) mother too namely Crystal Flute. As for Pajanti, she can't get to 1400m fast enough. WEEPING WOMAN (5) has been a very costly conveyance at her two runs this time; but in her defence, she struck a Heavy 8 first-up then drew 12 of 12 the next time and was only beaten a neck. CHANGING COLOURS (7) hasn't missed a medal in eight starts!
BET: PAJANTI (6) each-way, quinella 5,6.
â– â– â– â– â–
USEAPIN (8) is a Chris Waller-trained filly by one of his two Everest winners (Yes Yes Yes). She's won three of her nine starts, albeit at the NSW provincials but she has run some honourable races when tried in town against the likes of More Territories and Aeliana no less. She was never let loose in either trial. Market watch advised. RANTAN (6) had no luck there at Gosford there on Cup day in what has turned out to be a very, very strong form race. SPYWIRE (1) is almost certainly the best horse in the race. Just have to see if 'they' back him.
BET: USEAPIN (8) to win (best bet).
â– â– â– â– â–
TESTATOR SILENS (5) was rock solid, even fancied in the betting stakes, when third-up here two weeks ago. He looked primed to peak in what was the perfect race for him. As it turned out, he never passed a horse. Nothing in the stewards' report to shed light on the poor performance so we just have to write it off to horses not being machines. Me? I do think the 4kg reduction in weight will help. THUNDERLIPS (2) is '121' coming onto this. He deserves so much praise for that win at Randwick last start. GREEN SHADOWS (1) is all but pitched in her with 57kg.
BET: TESTATOR SILENS (5) each-way.
â– â– â– â– â–
MORMONA (6) has been on my radar since before, and after, he resumed in the Lord Mayors Cup where he ran an eye-catching 7th of 14. He followed that up with a 6th of 14 in the Winter Cup up against a fair few of this weekend's Stayers Cup rivals. By the way, this race should be 3200m if you ask me! HOPEFUL (3) is a player.
BET: MORMONA (6) each-way.
â– â– â– â– â–
Just for some text, I was moderately keen on LENAPE VIBE (14) second-up, when few were it seems given he drifted from $51 to $61. Might have been a run short but there is no doubt that he should have finished closer and higher up the order than he did. Take note he comes back from 2000m to 1800m, mindful that he is one for one at the track and trip. KAZALARK (13) has raced himself into peak fitness now and gets to 1800m off his best run this time in. FEDERER (12) will be fitter on Saturday for his 'second serve'.
BET: LENAPE VIBE (14) each-way, KAZALARK (13) top place.
â– â– â– â– â–
ADELAIDE RIVER (1) boasts an absolutely fascinating CV. He is a son of Australia who won the English and Irish Derbies; just like his own father, Galileo did. Adelaide River didn't win them but he ran in the English and Irish Derbies (second) as well as the French classic (which he ran second in as well). All we can say about the present day is that he is trialling like he is back in business. BELVEDERE BOYS (5) is 2 for 2 at the track and distance including a big win in the Country Classic.
BET: ADELAIDE RIVER (1) each-way.
â– â– â– â– â–
UNSTOPABULL (9) has a commendable overall record of 12 podium finishes from 20 starts and four of them are wins. I would venture to say a few of those eight placings could have been wins but for his pattern and/or circumstances beyond the horse's own control. This is more or less 'his trip' and with Jeff Penza on from a wide gate, it could be down the middle and over the top. FLYING DESTINY (5) has massive excuses for the first-up 'last' at Canterbury; wide throughout being the gist. Drawn 3 this time.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Sydney Morning Herald
33 minutes ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
NSW were hammered 8-0 in a first-half Origin penalty blitz. Here's why it won't happen again
There was one passage of play in the second half when the Blues were camped on the Maroons line and Cameron Munster was offside at marker, which forced NSW hooker Connor Watson to keep going to the short side, only for the attacking play to break down when the ball spilled into touch. Loading Daley and Slater were given the option of meeting the NRL and Maxwell before the series started, but both declined. Slater wasted no time compiling his own list of grievances after the Maroons' defeat in game one. Now Daley has done likewise. Klein is expected to keep the top job for the decider at Accor Stadium, while Grant Atkins impressed again in Thursday's Panthers-Bulldogs epic, suggesting his chance to officiate an Origin game is not far away. Daley will pick his side for the decider on Sunday night. Jarome Luai is expected to overcome the infection that forced him out of Wests Tigers' 28-10 loss to Manly on Friday night. Tigers coach Benji Marshall said Luai could have played had the game been 'another 24 or 48 hours later'. South Sydney forward Keaon Koloamatangi is making a strong case to unseat props Max King or Stefano Utoikamanu, and has the advantage of also being able to play on the edge. Matt Burton remains in the box seat to retain 18th-man duties, which will mean he is missing for club duty again when Canterbury host Brisbane on Thursday night. Another two players Daley wanted to see perform this weekend were Tom Trbojevic in the centres for Manly and South Sydney's Campbell Graham. Winger Brian To'o underwent scans for a knee injury on Saturday, but Penrith medical staff are hoping he will be fit for game three. Canterbury's Jacob Kiraz would be on standby. Twelve of the 18 players on the Blues' final team list at Optus Stadium had already completed their club commitments or enjoyed the bye by late Friday. Only hooker Reece Robson, and Melbourne's Utoikamanu, will play on Sunday, compared to nine Maroons who will feature in the two games to close out the round. The Maroons are expected to call-up Reece Walsh to fullback after Kalyn Ponga broke down with a foot injury for the Knights. Scans confirmed the Queensland superstar has suffered a lisfranc injury. Ponga is set for a lengthy stint out. One thing that would have pleased Daley was the performance of Penrith's NSW quintet. Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Brian To'o, Dylan Edwards and Liam Martin were all standouts in Thursday's win over the Bulldogs. Loading Cleary scored the charge-down try, Edwards and To'o combined for 50 hit-ups and Martin hounded the Dogs' back three all game. 'Nathan came up with the big play, and Dyl, 'Bizz' [To'o] and Marto, they were in everything,' Yeo said. 'The tougher the game is, the better Bizz goes. He came off a limited prep in game two – he was our best in that game, and he was just about our best on Thursday night. 'If you said at the start of the series that you'd get a decider at home, I reckon you'd take that.'
The Age
39 minutes ago
- The Age
NSW were hammered 8-0 in a first-half Origin penalty blitz. Here's why it won't happen again
There was one passage of play in the second half when the Blues were camped on the Maroons line and Cameron Munster was offside at marker, which forced NSW hooker Connor Watson to keep going to the short side, only for the attacking play to break down when the ball spilled into touch. Loading Daley and Slater were given the option of meeting the NRL and Maxwell before the series started, but both declined. Slater wasted no time compiling his own list of grievances after the Maroons' defeat in game one. Now Daley has done likewise. Klein is expected to keep the top job for the decider at Accor Stadium, while Grant Atkins impressed again in Thursday's Panthers-Bulldogs epic, suggesting his chance to officiate an Origin game is not far away. Daley will pick his side for the decider on Sunday night. Jarome Luai is expected to overcome the infection that forced him out of Wests Tigers' 28-10 loss to Manly on Friday night. Tigers coach Benji Marshall said Luai could have played had the game been 'another 24 or 48 hours later'. South Sydney forward Keaon Koloamatangi is making a strong case to unseat props Max King or Stefano Utoikamanu, and has the advantage of also being able to play on the edge. Matt Burton remains in the box seat to retain 18th-man duties, which will mean he is missing for club duty again when Canterbury host Brisbane on Thursday night. Another two players Daley wanted to see perform this weekend were Tom Trbojevic in the centres for Manly and South Sydney's Campbell Graham. Winger Brian To'o underwent scans for a knee injury on Saturday, but Penrith medical staff are hoping he will be fit for game three. Canterbury's Jacob Kiraz would be on standby. Twelve of the 18 players on the Blues' final team list at Optus Stadium had already completed their club commitments or enjoyed the bye by late Friday. Only hooker Reece Robson, and Melbourne's Utoikamanu, will play on Sunday, compared to nine Maroons who will feature in the two games to close out the round. The Maroons are expected to call-up Reece Walsh to fullback after Kalyn Ponga broke down with a foot injury for the Knights. Scans confirmed the Queensland superstar has suffered a lisfranc injury. Ponga is set for a lengthy stint out. One thing that would have pleased Daley was the performance of Penrith's NSW quintet. Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo, Brian To'o, Dylan Edwards and Liam Martin were all standouts in Thursday's win over the Bulldogs. Loading Cleary scored the charge-down try, Edwards and To'o combined for 50 hit-ups and Martin hounded the Dogs' back three all game. 'Nathan came up with the big play, and Dyl, 'Bizz' [To'o] and Marto, they were in everything,' Yeo said. 'The tougher the game is, the better Bizz goes. He came off a limited prep in game two – he was our best in that game, and he was just about our best on Thursday night. 'If you said at the start of the series that you'd get a decider at home, I reckon you'd take that.'
News.com.au
an hour ago
- News.com.au
Adelaide v Richmond AFL Round 16: Live updates, SuperCoach scores, teams
Can the Crows get their three-headed monster back up and running as well? At the start of the season the three-tall forward line of Riley Thilthorpe, Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty – with Dan Curtin flicking between a wing and attack – looked like it could be a point of difference for Matthew Nicks. While the question was around how would the Crows' defence stack up against the good sides of the competition. At the midway point of their season, the questions have been reversed. Against the top nine sides of the competition, the Crows defence is standing up quite nicely. Their clearance to score against is the best in the competition, their score per inside 50 against is third in the competition, while their intercept to score against is seventh in the competition. It isn't being reflected offensively though. The Crows are 16th for intercept to score and score per inside 50 against top nine sides, while their clearance to score is 17th. Only twice against top nine sides, Round 4 against Gold Coast and Round 5 against Geelong have the Crows scored above 70 points so far this year. And the weather is only getting colder and wetter, and the ball only more slippery. Port Adelaide premiership player Dean Brogan said ground ball games became extremely important as the season went on. 'The three talls are starting to become a talking point,' he said on Grandstand SA. 'They haven't performed of late, they were really good at the start of the year when the grounds were dry. 'They are not getting off the chain like they were at the start of the year, it is something they will probably have a look at during their week off. 'Are they getting the output they want from these three talls? Because in the middle of winter and towards the back-end of the season the ground ball game becomes very important and the best teams in the comp have really good ground ball games and if you are two tall you get found out. 'I think the three talls have to be looked at.' In the Crows' last game against Hawthorn, Thilthorpe, Walker and Fogarty combined for just the seven points. The week before against Brisbane just Thilthorpe and Walker finished with a goal, in a pleasing sign that the Crows can win without the three firing on all cylinders. But the issue will be can the Crows go so tall – Curtin has been performing well prior to the bye – at a stage of the season where the ball is more on the deck? Adelaide coaching director Murray Davis said the Crows would take seven shots from their three-tall attack most weeks, and they wanted to have multiple avenues to goal. 'If you look at the last two games, Hawthorn and Brisbane, both teams really struggled to hit the scoreboard,' he said. 'So let's look at the bigger picture and what we were able to do. 'When we get our ball movement going and we are able to give those guys the opportunities they have shown and we have shown that we are a pretty hard team to stop. 'What makes a really good team is having a lot of difference avenues to goal. 'We don't want to rely on our three key forwards being the ones impacting the scoreboard each week because I think if you do have that it becomes easier to defend.' Davis knows just how potent a firing three-tall forward line can be. Previous side Brisbane won last year's flag with Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Logan Morris – although he is 191cm – spearheading the Lions' forward line. So it can work and bring the ultimate success.
