Hurricane center gives low chance for system to form in Gulf
The National Hurricane Center began tracking a system in the Caribbean that could move into the Gulf waters off Mexico over the weekend with a chance to develop into the season's next tropical depression or storm.
In its 8 a.m. Friday tropical outlook, the NHC stated the area of showers and thunderstorms was in the northwestern Caribbean Sea approaching Belize and Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula, but expected to move west-northwest into the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf waters on Saturday or Sunday where a low pressure area could form.
"Subsequent slow development is possible on Sunday or Monday if the system remains offshore of the coast of Mexico," forecasters said. "Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days."
The NHC first began tracking the system Thursday night. It gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days and 20% in the next seven.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that officially began on June 1 has been quiet so far with only one named storm - Tropical Storm Andrea - that formed for less than a day out in the middle of the Atlantic last week.
The next name on this season's list is Barry.
It was the latest since 2014 that a named system had formed. That year the first named storm didn't come until June 30.
Despite the late start, this year's hurricane season is still predicted to be above-normal by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The agency predicts 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6-10 will become hurricanes. Three to five of those would grow into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
Hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
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Scientific American
11 hours ago
- Scientific American
Hurricane Forecasters Lose Crucial Satellite Data, with Serious Implications
On television broadcasts and forecast maps, hurricanes appear as two-dimensional swirling vortices, belying their extremely complex three-dimensional structure. Being able to peer past the tops of clouds to see what's happening inside a storm is critical for forecasting—particularly for catching one that is about to rapidly intensify into something more dangerous. But a key source of data that provide an x-ray-like view of that structure will shut down by June 30, just before hurricane season tends to kick into high gear. 'It's certainly one of the more important data sources that we have because it provides a unique dataset,' says James Franklin, former chief of the National Hurricane Center's (NHC's) Hurricane Specialist Unit. 'It's the only way really to see through clouds and get a sense of the organizational structure of the core of a developing cyclone.' Having that information can alert forecasters to rapid intensification or other major changes hours before they become apparent in other data—providing crucial time to warn people in harm's way. This view into storm structure comes from sensors onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites. Those data will no longer be taken up, processed and sent out to the National Hurricane Center or other non-Department of Defense users. The exact reasons for the shutoff are unclear but appear to be related to security concerns. On supporting science journalism If you're enjoying this article, consider supporting our award-winning journalism by subscribing. By purchasing a subscription you are helping to ensure the future of impactful stories about the discoveries and ideas shaping our world today. 'The timing [of the shutdown] could not be worse as far as hurricane season is concerned,' and it comes along with other recent cuts and limitations to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, says Kim Wood, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Arizona. What do microwave data tell us about hurricanes? Satellites orbiting the Earth gather data in multiple wavelengths of light: visible, infrared, microwave, and so on. Each provides different kinds of information. Most people typically see images of hurricanes in the visible part of the electromagnetic spectrum, but the storms also emit microwaves. 'Everything is emitting microwaves,' Wood says. 'We're currently emitting microwaves sitting here. And it's because our temperatures are above absolute zero.' Microwaves are useful in monitoring hurricanes, Wood says, 'because the waves are so long they get through the tops of the clouds.' 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This was the case with Hurricane Otis in 2023, which was the first known Category 5 Pacific hurricane ever to make landfall and caused significant devastation. Microwave 'satellite imagery clued us in to the potential for this system to be really strong,' Wood says. Microwave data are also extremely useful in locating the center of weaker storms. These storms tend to lack a central eye and eye wall, and clouds higher in the atmosphere can obscure where those located lower down are circulating in visible imagery. Knowing where the center of the storm lies is important information to feed into hurricane models that forecast where the storm will go. Feeding microwave data into models can improve the accuracy with which they determine the position of the center of a storm by about 60 miles, Franklin says—noting that an incorrect position is 'going to cascade or leak into your track forecast.' This means that meteorologists who lack microwave imagery may not be able to forecast where a storm will make landfall as accurately as those who have it. Where do microwave data come from, and why were they cut? Because the microwaves emitted from Earth's surface and atmosphere are very weak, they can only be detected by satellites in very low-Earth orbit, Wood says. (The geostationary satellites that provide visible imagery orbit farther out. To have a sensor big enough to detect microwaves from their position, they would need to be the size of the Death Star, Wood says.) But because those microwave-detecting satellites orbit so close to Earth, they see less of it at any given time than geostationary satellites do—so more of them are needed to adequately monitor the planet. And there are longer time gaps between when a microwave-detecting satellite 'revisits' the same spot. That means microwave data are already limited. There are currently six satellites providing that information for U.S. weather forecasting purposes, and they are only useful for hurricanes if they serendipitously pass overhead at the right time. But now three of them are about to be turned off. 'That's a big drop in the availability of this tool,' Franklin says. The data that are about to be lost come from what are called Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS) sensors onboard three DMSP satellites. The exact reason for the shutoff is unclear, though some reports have cited security concerns. It does not appear that the concerns are with sharing the data themselves or with funding the collection and dissemination of that information. In an e-mail to Scientific American, a spokesperson for the U.S. Space Force wrote that 'DMSP satellites and instruments are still functional' and that DOD users will continue to receive the data. They referred further questions about the decision to the U.S. Navy, which had not replied to requests for comment by press time. In an e-mail to Scientific American, Maria Torres, a spokesperson for the NHC, wrote that "the DMSP is a single dataset in a robust suite of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio.' She cited other satellites, ocean buoys and the Hurricane Hunter flights, among other tools. 'NOAA's data sources are fully capable of providing a complete suite of cutting-edge data and models that ensure the gold-standard weather forecasting the American people deserve,' Torres wrote. There are other satellites that could theoretically provide microwave data—including a recently launched DOD satellite—but there has been no discussion of making those data broadly accessible, Wood says. And because forecasting models and other systems are geared toward the existing data, it is not simple to use a new data source as a substitute. 'It's one thing for a satellite to exist,' Woods say. 'It's another thing for us to be able to access it.' What we can expect this hurricane season The loss of these data is most concerning when it comes to storms that are relatively far out in the ocean (beyond the range of Hurricane Hunter aircraft) and to storms in the Pacific Ocean, where fewer such missions are flown. There are typically more monitoring flights for storms that are a threat to the U.S., particularly as they get close to land. But two thirds of all hurricane advisories are issued based solely on satellite data, Franklin says. The loss of these data alone would be extremely concerning for forecast accuracy this hurricane season—but it comes on top of the broader cuts that have already been made to the National Weather Service and NOAA. For example, there may be fewer launches of the weather balloons that help illuminate how the larger atmospheric environment will steer a storm. And it is unclear if Hurricane Hunter flights might be affected. 'Losing this data is worse than it might have been a year ago,' Wood says. 'It's pretty much guaranteed that there will be some forecast this year where significant intensification, most likely of a tropical storm [to a hurricane], is missed by six to 12 hours because these data weren't available,' Franklin says. If it is a Pacific Coast storm, this could be devastating for communities in the way. And even if it is out at sea, it is a big concern for mariners. 'Ships go down in hurricanes,' Franklin says. All in all, 'there are a lot of things that are working against forecasting' this year, he says.
Yahoo
13 hours ago
- Yahoo
National Hurricane Center monitors multiple systems ahead of possible tropical increase
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A broad area of low pressure has formed over the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula. Some additional development is possible over the next few days when the system moves into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. By early next week this system should move inland over Mexico, ending its chances of additional development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of Belize, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. Formation chance through 48 hours: 20 percent. Formation chance through seven days: 30 percent. Tropical waves Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 15N southward, and moving west around 11 mph. Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 17N southward, and moving west around 11 mph. Tropical wave 3: A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 16N southward across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving west at 11 mph. Tropical wave 4: Another tropical wave is along 90W from the northern Yucatan Peninsula southward across Guatemala and El Salvador into the East Pacific. It is moving west at around 6 mph. The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome. The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high. The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception. "If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said. There's no tropical system threatening Florida at this time. However, AccuWeather forecasters are warning there is a potential for tropical development in the Gulf or off the southeast coast of the U.S. in early July, the holiday weekend. 'The potential is definitely there off the Southeast Coast or in the Gulf," said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather lead hurricane expert via email. "The water temperatures are warm enough to support tropical development in that area and the wind shear looks to be fairly low overall in that area.' 'We're forecasting a low chance that anything develops at this point, but this time of the year, this is where we would typically see tropical activity spin up in late June and early July, If anything develops over the next two weeks, it will happen close to home. "There's nothing unusual here. We would typically look close to home for possible tropical development early in the season. If anything develops, it's likely that rainfall would be the primary concern. 'A cold front during the first couple of days of July will come off the southeast coast and stall. The tail of the front will essentially extend across Florida and into the Gulf. If that frontal boundary stalls for a couple of days and we see any convection, that's how we could end up with tropical development next week." 'We expect tropical activity to pick up later on in the hurricane season. This very well could be a back-half loaded season," DaSilva said. Right now, dry air and wind shear are helping keep tropical storms from developing, which isn't unusual for early in the hurricane season, which started June 1. "The second named storm in the Atlantic basin typically doesn't develop until mid to late July. We are on pace with the historical average. Records show that the first hurricane of the season typically doesn't develop until Aug. 11," DaSilva said. Predictions issued by NOAA, AccuWeather and Colorado State University all forecast an above-normal hurricane season. "We're forecasting a wet pattern across the Southeast in early July, regardless of any tropical development," DaSilva said. 'Much of Florida and the Southeast will see plenty of showers and thunderstorms during early July, and that could impact outdoor plans for the Fourth of July. 'Northern Florida and the Panhandle will see more rainfall than South Florida in early July.' 'There is a big plume of dust coming across the Atlantic right now. We expect more Saharan dust to reach portions of the southern U.S. from South Florida to Texas. 'We could have some Saharan dust high in the sky for the Fourth of July, especially across South Florida.' 'We could see some dirty rain across Florida that can make a mess on your car and other surfaces outside, thanks to the Saharan dust.' Florida weather forecast for June 27, 2025 Pensacola, western Panhandle: Early start to the morning with showers and storms already firing up along the coastline and out over the Gulf this morning. High near 87. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Showers and thunderstorms likely today, with high near 92. Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Thunderstorm chances Increasing this afternoon and few severe storms are possible. Expect storms to develop along the sea breezes and northward from central Florida during the afternoon hours. The main threat with storms will be strong wind gusts. High near 91. Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Plenty of thunderstorms expected this afternoon-evening from increasing moisture and a sea breeze collision near the Orlando metro area. Strong storms are possible and there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms across much of the state. Temperatures expected to range from 88 in Daytona Beach to 87 in Stuart. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Quiet across South Florida this morning with the exception of a thunderstorm with plenty of lightning just offshore of Naples. Scattered storms and showers pick up in coverage this afternoon. Naples high near 90; West Palm Beach high near 84. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Interior portions of the forecast area are under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today with a threat of damaging wind gusts, hail 1inches in diameter or greater and locally heavy rainfall. Fort Myers high near 92 with heat index as high as 99; Sarasota high near 87. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story was updated to add a gallery and new information. This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: National Hurricane Center monitors multiple systems ahead of possible tropical increase
Washington Post
15 hours ago
- Washington Post
The government cuts key data used in hurricane forecasting, and experts sound an alarm
Weather experts are warning that hurricane forecasts will be severely hampered by the upcoming cutoff of key data from U.S. Department of Defense satellites, the latest Trump administration move with potential consequences for the quality of forecasting. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it would discontinue the 'ingest, processing and distribution' of data collected by three weather satellites that the agency jointly runs with the Defense Department. The data is used by scientists, researchers and forecasters, including at the National Hurricane Center.
