Map Shows Which States Could See Energy Bills Rise From GOP Budget Bill

Newsweek

2 days ago

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
The budget reconciliation bill signed into law by President Donald Trump on July 4 repeals many renewable energy incentives introduced by the Biden administration, which analysts warn could limit energy production and increase costs for Americans nationwide.
According to the climate policy think tank Energy Innovation, the energy provisions of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" will raise wholesale electricity prices by 25 percent by 2030 and by 74 percent by 2035, while increasing the rates consumers pay by between 9 and 18 percent over the decade.
In response to these fears, the White House told Newsweek that the bill will "turbocharge oil production," lowering overall energy costs and providing "further relief to American families and businesses."
Why It Matters
The projected increases in Americans' energy bills, which are already rising for reasons beyond the GOP's budget, will further strain household budgets, particularly in regions that have adopted or planned to expand their adoption of clean energy technologies to meet their electricity demands.
In addition to rising energy costs, analysts believe the bill could also see hundreds of thousands of job losses, as renewable energy projects across the country are halted or canceled outright.
What To Know
The bill, signed into law after months of interparty debates and revisions, amends several clean energy grant programs enacted during the presidency of Joe Biden and via his flagship 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. The budget pulls funding for clean energy programs and phases out various renewable tax credits, primarily by shortening the qualification window for wind and solar projects.
According to Energy Innovation, the downstream impacts of the bill on renewable energy projects—many of which will be abandoned as a result—will "significantly hamper the development of domestic electricity generation capacity," resulting in a 340 gigawatt decrease in generation capacity by 2035 despite the simultaneous efforts to increase nonrenewable energy production.
Their research found that the bill will raise energy costs for all Americans, but Dan O'Brien, a senior analyst at the think tank, told Newsweek recently that these impacts would "vary by state." This, he said, depends on each region's geography and potential for solar and wind developments, as well as states' willingness to support investments in such technologies without federal assistance.
Below is a map detailing Energy Innovation's estimates for the annual energy cost increases expected by 2030 and 2036 as a result of the Big Beautiful Bill.
According to the findings, Nevadans will see the most significant price hike by the end of this decade, with the bill adding $300 to the average $1,600 currently paid annually in the state. Energy Innovation said this significant increase is due to the declining deployment of new energy resources, which will result from the bill's passage.
Nevada has long been a leader in incorporating green energy, with renewables accounting for 43 percent of Nevada's total in-state electricity generation in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Nationally, these account for around a quarter of America's total generation.
By 2035, Missouri is expected to see the largest increase of $640, followed by Kentucky and South Carolina, both at $630.
"As deployment of new energy resources and advanced manufacturing decline under the bill, Missouri will lose out on significant planned private investment," the think tank wrote in its analysis, adding that the state will also see annual losses of $1.4 billion in its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030, rising to $3.5 billion by 2035.
What People Are Saying
Dan O'Brien, a senior analyst at Energy Innovation, told Newsweek: "This bill will raise energy prices for all Americans. The impacts will vary by state. Some states in the South and Midwest have enormous potential for wind and solar development due to their unique geographies, but little state policy to back this investment. As a result, these are the states where we forecast lots of projects will fail and where dependence on increasingly expensive natural gas generation is likely."
He added: "Much of energy cost inflation is due to increases in the price of power as fewer low-cost renewables are added to the grid. In fact, we find this bill will increase the inflation-adjusted price of electricity over a sustained period of several decades for the first time since the energy crisis of the 70s and 80s. Nationally averaged, this comes in at 10 to 18 percent increases for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers."
White House assistant press secretary Taylor Rogers told Newsweek: "Since Day One, President Trump has taken decisive steps to unleash American energy and drive oil and gas production to reduce the cost of energy. The One Big Beautiful Bill will turbocharge oil production by streamlining operations for maximum efficiency and expanding domestic production capacity, which will deliver further relief to American families and businesses."
Harry Godfrey, managing director and head of federal engagement at Advanced Energy United, previously told Newsweek: "As this bill has been debated over the past 6 months, we've seen pullbacks, particularly from domestic advanced energy manufacturing companies.
"Those pullbacks speak to the upstream impact of this bill. Manufacturers, making multi-decadal, multi-billion dollar investments in new factories and assembly lines, are looking out beyond the horizon and seeing a shrinking U.S. market for technologies like solar inverters, wind turbines, batteries (particularly for EVs). So it's little surprise they're getting cold feet. They're the canaries in the coal mine."
What Happens Next
Beyond energy bills, the think tank estimates that the decreased incentives for investments in renewables will also result in a $980 billion hit to America's GDP over the budget reconciliation window, alongside around 760,000 job losses by 2030.