One of the biggest Apple analyst does not want Apple to listen to Donald Trump's 25% tariff warning on making iPhones in India; says: It is far better to …
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This milestone underscores Apple's strategic pivot to diversify manufacturing away from China, driven by geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariffs, despite renewed pressure from President Donald Trump to relocate production to American soil. Market tracker Counterpoint Research aligns with Omdia, estimating India's
iPhone exports to the U.S.
in April at 2.9–3 million units, with similar volumes expected for May.
The April figures mark a continuation of Apple's efforts to reduce its reliance on China, where iPhone exports to the U.S. plummeted 76% to 900,000 units from 3.7 million a year earlier, per Omdia. This shift follows Apple's accelerated production in India to meet a critical April 2, 2025, deadline, when the U.S. imposed steep retaliatory tariffs targeting countries with trade deficits, hitting China hardest. However, April's export numbers dipped slightly from March due to seasonal trends, as the April-June period typically sees weaker shipments ahead of Apple's September product launches, industry executives told the publication.
Trump's Tariff threats and warning on Apple manufacturing in India loom large
President Trump escalated his 'America First' manufacturing push last week, threatening a 25% tariff on iPhones sold in the U.S. that are not produced domestically. This follows his broader trade policies, including tariffs imposed in April 2025, aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit. In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote, "I have long ago informed Tim Cook of Apple that I expect their iPhone's that will be sold in the United States of America will be manufactured and built in the United States, not India, or anyplace else.
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If that is not the case, a Tariff of at least 25% must be paid by Apple to the U.S. Thank your for your attention to this matter!", as per his post.
However, analysts warn that relocating iPhone assembly to the U.S. would drastically increase costs. Ming-Chi Kuo, an Apple analyst at TF Securities in Hong Kong, estimated that the U.S.-made iPhone Pro models could retail for over $3,000, up from $1,119, due to higher labor costs and logistical challenges in sourcing components.
'In terms of profitability, it's far better for Apple to absorb the 25% tariff than to move assembly lines to the U.S.,' Kuo said, as quoted by the report.
China remains key to Apple manufacturing, India emerging
India has emerged as a cornerstone of Apple's global strategy, accounting for 21% of worldwide iPhone shipments in Q1 2025, with projections suggesting a rise to 25–26% by year-end, per Omdia. The country now produces high-end models like the iPhone Pro and Pro Max, with workforce training largely complete.
However, scaling production remains a challenge due to infrastructure limitations and the complexity of Apple's supply chain, which relies on over 200 key suppliers in China, according to Sanyam Chaurasia, an analyst at Canalys (now part of Omdia). 'China remains deeply entrenched in Apple's ecosystem. Shifting to the U.S. would mean unraveling a tightly interwoven supply chain,' Chaurasia told the Economic Times.
India's rapid ascent as a tech manufacturing hub has been boosted by government incentives like the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme, which has attracted investments from Apple's key partners, such as Foxconn and Pegatron. Recent reports indicate Foxconn expanded its Tamil Nadu facility in May 2025, creating 10,000 additional jobs to support Apple's production goals. Meanwhile, Apple's push into India aligns with broader industry trends, as companies like Samsung and Google also increase manufacturing in India to hedge against
U.S.-
China trade tensions
.
With new iPhone models expected in September 2025, Apple's ability to scale production in India while navigating U.S. trade policies will be critical to maintaining its market dominance. For consumers, the outcome could determine whether the next iPhone remains affordable or becomes a luxury only a few can afford.
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