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Mint
38 minutes ago
- Mint
Vijay L Bhambwani's Ticker: Bulls are running out of time
Ticker is a weekly newsletter by Vijay L Bhambwani. Subscribe to Mint's newsletters to get them directly in your email inbox. Dear reader, Last week, I wrote bulls must flex their muscles and make their presence felt, or risk losing the initiative. The market fell for the fifth week in a row, which means bulls are a worried lot. They are fast approaching a tipping point where they will need to defend the markets or get overwhelmed by their mark-to-market (notional) losses. To be fair to the bulls, they have multiple reasons to worry. The India-US trade deal is turning into a nightmare. The resultant fall in the rupee opens the floodgates of 'imported inflation." This occurs when the domestic currency weakens so much that imported goods become expensive due to the exchange rate alone. The biggest fear is oil and gas turning expensive. These commodities are known as multiplier commodities, since they have a trickle-down effect on the price of every other commodity. That means higher inflation posing a threat to the feel-good-factor. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce its decision on interest rates on 7 August. Any lowering of the repo rate may not have the expected and/or desired impact on the markets. That is because the actual cost of funds remains high. That is triggering declines in banking and financial sector stocks, which in turn command a combined weightage of 37.41% in the Nifty 50. This is where the problem lies. Unless bulls act fast, and buy banking and financial sector stocks aggressively, the market may witness some more declines. On the global stage, last week I wrote about pension regulations in US and Europe threatening to slow down inflows into financial markets in the coming quarters. You can read it here. That has the potential to spook bulls globally. As I have written in my past articles, this is the phase of procyclical hysteresis in financial asset markets. This phenomenon occurs when asset prices revert to the prevalent economic realities, after moving against it for a while. The 2020-2024 period was one such period of counter-cyclicality, when businesses were sluggish but financial markets were defying gravity. The mean reversion is anything but smooth and retail traders run the risk of being hurt the most. This week will continue to witness action on stocks of public sector undertakings, particularly in banking. The monetary policy announcement on 7 August will set the pace thereafter. Oil and gas stocks may witness larger-than usual weekly ranges, as energy commodities are highly volatile. That could include wild two-way price moves. My hypothesis that oil and gas markets are adequately supplied and price rises, if any, would be short-lived, was validated by last week's market action. Bullion continues to witness buying support on declines and the long-term story remains intact. Industrial metals witnessed a sell-off along expected lines. Since July contracts expired for base metals, prices eased. That could see some declines and/or selling on advances for metal and mining stocks this week. Fixed income investors should continue to keep the powder dry till the RBI verdict is out. Do not trade without adequate tail risk (Hacienda) hedges in place. That could make all the difference between crippling losses and a rap on the knuckles this week. A tutorial video on tail risk (Hacienda) hedges is here - Rear View Mirror Let us assess what happened last week, so we can guesstimate what to expect in the coming week. The fall was led by the banking and financial sector stocks and the broad-based Nifty 50 brought up the rear. A strong US dollar spooked emerging markets including India. The rupee weakened against the dollar, which added to the nervousness. Gold rallied as safe-haven buying returned. Silver reacted lower on profit sales. Oil and gas witnessed selling on advances, which is likely to persist unless a fresh a trigger emerges to indicate otherwise. Indian 10-year bond yields rose again, which dragged the Bank Nifty lower. NSE lost 1.61%, which indicates broad-based selling. Marketwide position limits fell routinely after expiry. US headline indices fell, adding headwinds to domestic markets. Retail Risk Appetite I use a simple yet highly accurate yardstick for measuring the conviction levels of retail traders – where are they deploying money. I measure what percentage of the turnover was contributed by the lower and higher risk instruments. If they trade more of futures which require sizable capital, their risk appetite is higher. Within the futures space, index futures are less volatile compared to stock futures. A higher footprint in stock futures shows higher aggression levels. Ditto for stock and index options. Last week, this is what their footprint looked like (the numbers are average of all trading days of the week): We saw turnover contribution rise in the high-risk high-capital-intensive futures segment largely due to expiry of the July series. Traders tend to roll over their trades from the expiring month to the next month which logs dual turnover. The fact remains that it indicates higher risk appetite too. In the relatively lower risk options segment, turnover contribution rose in index options, whereas stock options turnover fell sharply. This indicates lower risk appetite in the options segment. Overall risk appetite seemed a tad higher. Matryoshka Analysis Let us peel layer after layer of statistical data to arrive at the core message of the first chart I share is the NSE advance-decline ratio. After the price itself, this indicator is the fastest (leading) indicator of which way winds are blowing. This simple yet accurate indicator computes the ratio of number of the rising stocks compared to falling stocks. As long as gaining stocks outnumber the losers, bulls are dominant. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'one marshmallow' traders. These are pure intraday traders. A tutorial video on the marshmallow theory in trading is here - The Nifty clocked bigger losses and continued its five-week long losing streak. That resulted in intraday buying conviction remaining subdued. At 0.80 (prior week 0.67) it indicates 80 gaining stocks for every 100 losers. For a sustainable bull market, it is essential that this ratio stay above 1.0 consistently to propel markets higher. Watch your trading terminal screen keenly this week. The second chart I share is the market-wide position limits (MWPL). This measures the amount of exposure utilized by traders in the derivatives (F&O) space as a component of the total exposure allowed by the regulator. This metric is a gauge of the risk appetite of 'two marshmallow' traders. These are deep-pocketed, high-conviction traders who roll over their trades to the next session/ MWPL reading fell routinely after expiry of the July 2025 derivatives series. As I mentioned last week, the extent of the fall would tell a story. The post-expiry low is lower than the comparable week last month. This tells us traders have rolled over fewer positions post-expiry as compared to the prior month. That hints towards caution. A dedicated tutorial video on how to interpret MWPL data in more ways than one is available here - The third chart I share is my in-house indicator 'impetus.' It measures the force in any price move. Last week, both indices fell with higher impetus readings, which indicates the fall was triggered by forceful selling. That is not good news. Ideally, the fall should have occurred on lower impetus reading or even better, indices should have risen on higher impetus reading. Should our headline indices continue to fall with higher impetus readings, it could open the doorway to further declines. The final chart I share is my in-house indicator 'LWTD.' It computes lift, weight, thrust and drag encountered by any security. These are four forces that any powered aircraft faces during flight; so, applying it to traded securities helps a trader estimate prevalent sentiments. Last week, the Nifty extended the decline and fell for the fifth week in a row. The LWTD reading rose but remained well below the zero mark at -0.34 levels. That tells me fresh short covering and/or fresh support may improve compared to the prior week, but will remain below optimal levels. Bulls need to flex their muscles and fast or risk losing the initiative. A tutorial video on interpreting the LWTD indicator is here - Nifty's Verdict The weekly chart indicates a fall for the fifth week in a row and the price has now settled below its 25-week average (blue line). That average is a proxy for six-month holding cost of an average retail investor. Since recent buyers are holding losing positions, they may experience short-term anxiety. That raises the possibility of some distress selling. Last week, I suggested watching the 24,800 level on the Nifty as a last-mile support. The same was violated on a closing basis. That puts bulls at a disadvantage. The last mile support is at the 24,200 threshold which must be defended or bulls can face even more distress. On the flipside, the Nifty needs to trade consistently above the 24,800 level to imbibe confidence in day traders. Investors will derive comfort only above the 25,250 level. Your Call to Action – watch the 24,200 level as a near-term support. Only a breakout above the 25,250 level raises the possibility of a short-term rally. Last week, I estimated ranges between 57,725 – 55,325 and 25,375 – 24,300 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Both indices traded within their specified resistance levels. This week, I estimate ranges between 56,800 – 54,450 and 25,075 – 24,050 on the Bank Nifty and Nifty respectively. Trade light with strict stop losses. Avoid trading counters with spreads wider than 8 ticks. Have a profitable week. Vijay L Bhambwani Vijay is the CEO of a proprietary trading firm. He tweets at @vijaybhambwani
News18
an hour ago
- News18
Beware Of Loan App Scam: Mumbai Woman Repays More Than She Owes, Morphed Nudes Still Sent To Kin
The woman, from Kranti Nagar area in Jogeshwari West, downloaded 'Cash Loan' mobile app on July 20 after seeing an ad on Instagram A loan app firm allegedly harassed a 25-year-old woman in Mumbai and reportedly shared her morphed nude photographs with her relatives and friends, even as she handed over more money that what was borrowed. According to an NDTV report, the woman, from Kranti Nagar area in Jogeshwari West, downloaded 'Cash Loan' mobile app on July 20 after seeing an ad on Instagram. NDTV quoted police as saying that the woman applied for a loan of Rs 2,000, but received only Rs 1,300 for a period of six days. Even before the deadline ended, the woman allegedly started receiving threats from a person who introduced himself as an employee of the loan firm. The caller threatened to share her obscene photos on social media if she did not return the money, police said. The woman then sent Rs 1,000 twice to a person named 'Sandesh Kumar' via a payment app. An hour later, the woman's aunt called her to inform her that she had received a morphed nude photograph of the woman on WhatsApp. Within minutes, the same photograph was allegedly shared with two of the woman's friends from the same number. Some dos and don'ts: Use only apps regulated by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) or listed on the RBI's registered NBFC/lender list. Prefer apps tied to well-known banks or NBFCs. Avoid apps not available on official app stores or shared via links on WhatsApp, SMS, or social media. Check reviews and ratings on Google Play Store or Apple App Store. Search the app's name online for complaints or scam reports. Understand all loan term. Read the interest rate, processing fees, repayment period, and penalty charges before agreeing. Ask for loan sanction letters or agreements in writing. Grant only necessary permissions (camera, contact, location). Apps asking for access to contacts or gallery are often red flags. Make sure the app has a clear data policy explaining what information it collects and how it's used. Make repayments on or before the due date to avoid penalty charges and credit score damage. Save all receipts, messages, emails, and transaction screenshots for reference or disputes. Never share bank passwords, UPI PINs, OTPs, or PAN/Aadhaar screenshots via WhatsApp or unsecured apps. If an app harasses you or threatens to call your contacts, report it to cybercrime portal on or RBI's Sachet Portal: With Agency Inputs view comments First Published: Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
Mint
2 hours ago
- Mint
PCB pulls out of World Championship of Legends, cites political bias and unfair conduct
Islamabad [Pakistan], August 3 (ANI): The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has officially announced that it will no longer participate in any future editions of the World Championship of Legends (WCL), raising concerns about the tournament's fairness, integrity, and political neutrality, The Nation reported, citing the PCB. "The championship's handling of events appeared to be under invisible pressures," the PCB noted. "The apology issued later seemed motivated by a specific form of nationalism, making it difficult for us to continue our participation," it added. The decision was taken during a Board of Governors meeting, chaired by PCB Chairman Mohsin Naqvi. According to the Nation, the board pointed to "double standards and politically motivated actions." One of the most contentious issues raised by the board was the decision to award points to a team that had voluntarily forfeited a match, a move the PCB claimed as "highly questionable" and against the spirit of fair competition. The board further criticised the press release put out by WCL organisers after the India-Pakistan match was called off. It termed the communication "politically charged and prejudiced." The PCB said it would not take part in any event where the values of neutrality and fair play are undermined. The board made it clear that it will not be associated with tournaments that allow external agendas to dictate the course of the game. Earlier, the EaseMyTrip Co-founder Nishant Pitti has clarified that it will not be associated with any India-Pakistan match in the World Championship of Legends (WCL). The company clarified its stance, stating that despite entering into a 5-year sponsorship agreement with WCL two years ago, it will not associate with or participate in any match involving Pakistan. Nishant Pitti, co-founder of EaseMyTrip, took to his X account to express support for the Indian team, while explaining the company's position. "India vs Pakistan - WCL Semi-Final. We applaud Team India @India_Champions for their outstanding performance in the World Championship of Legends. You've made the nation proud. However, the upcoming semi-final against Pakistan is not just another game. Terror and cricket cannot go hand in hand," Pitti said in his post. He further added, "@EaseMyTrip, we stand with India. We cannot support any event that attempts to normalise relations with a country that promotes terrorism. The people of India have spoken and we hear them. EaseMyTrip will not be associated with the India vs Pakistan match in WCL. Some things are bigger than sport. Nation first, business later. Always. Jai Hind." (ANI)
