Analysts wary of border standoff
If the conflict can be contained quickly, the investment impact is likely to be limited, with technical support for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index expected at 1,190 points, they said.
"So far, the effect on Thai listed companies' earnings is considered modest," Bualuang Securities (BLS) said in a research note.
Companies with more than 5% of their revenue from Cambodia were mainly energy drink producers, while those with 1-5% exposure include hospitals, energy firms and construction materials companies. Retailers and banks have an exposure of less than 1%, according to the brokerage.
Carabao Group (CBG) has more than 10% of revenue or profit derived from Cambodia, while Osotspa (OSP) and Siam City Cement (SCCC) have 5-10% exposure.
Stocks with 1-5% exposure include hospital groups, namely Bumrungrad Hospital (BH), Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS) and Bangkok Chain Hospital (BCH).
Other companies with this level of exposure are cinema operator Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR), food producer Betagro (BTG) and those in the petrochemical and energy sectors, comprising Bangchak Corporation (BCP), IRPC, Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC), Thai Oil (TOP), PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC), Siam Cement (SCC) and oil retailers such as PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR).
Other firms with Cambodian operations that face a limited impact based on revenue of less than 1% are CP All, CP Axtra (CPAXT) and Berli Jucker (BJC).
Major banks with branches in Cambodia, including Bangkok Bank (BBL), Kasikornbank (KBANK), Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) and Krungthai Bank (KTB) are also considered to have a minimal level of exposure.
Utility firm B.Grimm Power (BGRIM) was mentioned by BLS for its investment-type business model.
Piriyapon Kongvanich, a strategist at BLS, said the impact from the Thai-Cambodian border conflict remains limited, citing the 2011 armed conflict near the Preah Vihear temple area that was confined to a specific zone and did not escalate.
"The current episode is unlikely to expand beyond the border area due to Thailand's stronger military capacity," he said.
"Cambodia may be escalating the issue to bring it before the International Court of Justice, suggesting political rather than military motives."
From a macroeconomic perspective, Cambodia accounts for roughly 3% of Thailand's total exports.
The top five export categories include gems and jewellery, refined oil, sugar, beverages and chemicals.
Oil and natural gas exports to Cambodia made up only 0.4% of total exports last year.
Maybank Securities (Thailand) expects the ongoing border tensions to have a limited effect on the Thai economy, despite straining diplomatic ties, partial border closures and potential trade disruptions.
The situation could affect international relations and cross-border commerce if prolonged, Maybank noted.
In the tourism sector, Cambodian tourists comprise 1.6% of total arrivals, a figure that has been declining since 2023.
Cambodia contributes a relatively small share of labour in Thailand's construction sector, suggesting minimal immediate impact, noted the brokerage.
"The conflict is expected to have a limited effect on listed companies' earnings, though some stocks with direct exposure to Cambodia may experience negative sentiment pressure," noted Maybank.
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