Wednesday briefing: ​The Conservative​s ​reshuffle​ in an attempt to ​stay ​relevant ​amid ​poor polling

The Guardian

5 days ago

Good morning. Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservative party (remember them?), has announced a reshuffle of her top team a year into her leadership.
The reshuffle itself has not come as a surprise – it was rumoured for months. Badenoch has kept much of her team in place, including the shadow home secretary, Robert Jenrick, shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, and the shadow foreign secretary, Priti Patel.
The reshuffle has seen a return of Sir James Cleverly to frontline politics as shadow minister for housing, facing off against Angela Rayner. He served as foreign secretary and home secretary in the Conservative government. Cleverly previously declined an offer to serve in Badenoch's shadow cabinet after losing the post-election race to be Conservative leader.
Edward Argar – who has stepped down as shadow health secretary on the advice of his doctors after a health scare – will be replaced by Stuart Andrew, a former minister who has been shadow culture minister. Kevin Hollinrake, who had been shadow housing and communities secretary, will become party chair. He takes over from Nigel Huddleston, who will be shadow culture secretary.
If you're drawing a blank on who these MPs are, you are not alone. The Conservatives have yet to truly make their mark as the party of opposition. To better understand why that is, the challenges the party faces, and where the Tories go next, I spoke to the Guardian's deputy political editor Jessica Elgot. That's after the headlines.
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The Conservative party was, until very recently, known as the most electorally successful political party in western Europe. Founded in 1834, the Tories dominated British politics in the 19th, 20th and much of the 21st century.
Then came last year's election, which saw them lose a record 251 seats. They only have 121 MPs left, limiting the talent Badenoch has to draw from. Recent polls have been brutal, with one in May showing the Conservatives dropping to fourth place, behind the Liberal Democrats.
'When you're around the Tory party in Westminster, almost all of the MPs have completely checked out,' Jessica told me. 'There are a few people who are energetically trying to make a big impact: Robert Jenrick, who's obviously still very keen on being leader, and Claire Coutinho, who clearly sees that she's got a future in the party.'
Whether this reshuffle will be the boost needed to motivate and mobilise the party is more tricky to say. 'It's hard to find many people in the Conservative party who think that Kemi Badenoch's going to be the leader that takes them into the next election, especially after what we expect to be a real hammering at the May 2026 elections, particularly in Wales and Scotland,' Jessica added.
The real opposition
The prime minister, Keir Starmer, has set up Nigel Farage's Reform party as 'the real opposition' in the next general election, describing Badenoch, and the Conservatives, as 'sliding into the abyss' (ouch). It is a deliberate strategy to help motivate disgruntled progressives to vote Labour or risk having Nigel Farage as prime minister. But it does also speak to the fact that the Tories have struggled for airtime against Reform.
'You can see that, from the Tory MPs who are defecting, like Jake Berry, who is a quite eccentric political character. But essentially what he represents is an ambitious former Tory MP kicked out of the last election who is from a younger generation who clearly doesn't believe that their time in public life should be over. People like him see Reform as a party that is more likely to help them get re-elected,' Jessica said.
'It's existential for a party leader to be facing that. There's been quite a deliberate attempt by Kemi Badenoch to talk about similar issues to Nigel Farage, whether that's grooming gangs or small boats.'
The economy might be a subject on which the Tories can distinguish themselves from Reform, Jessica added, with Farage shifting to the left on the topic, backing the abolition of the two-child benefit cap. But it's not something the Tories have jumped on yet, for one clear reason: 'That's really difficult for a party that was in power for 14 years, to say 'We're back to being the credible ones on the economy.''
Fixing the church roof
While many have focused on Reform's impact on the Tories, the party had also lost votes to the Liberal Democrats – but Badenoch doesn't seem to regard this as significant.
'The Lib Dems are such an interesting phenomenon when it comes to what the Tory party's looking for as it tries to regain power,' Jessica said. 'There are 70 Lib Dem seats which it seems to be making almost no attempt whatsoever to try and regain.'
Jessica pointed to a revealing podcast interview that Badenoch did with Jordan Peterson. 'They don't have much of an ideology other than being nice,' Badenoch said. 'A typical Liberal Democrat will be somebody who is good at fixing their church roof. And, you know, the people in the community like them. They are like, 'Fix the church roof, you should be a member of parliament.''
Unsurprisingly, the Liberal Democrats took this criticism as a badge of honour – with party leader Ed Davey writing that they were proud to be a party that focuses on local issues.
The poisoned chalice
Badenoch herself hasn't made the mark she wanted to as opposition leader. The main successes of the Conservative party have been down to Jenrick, who notably got the government to back down on long-consulted guidelines on sentencing.
There has been some frustration in Tory-supporting newspapers about Badenoch's performance, particularly at prime minister's questions. One Labour party source joked to Jessica that when Starmer prepares to take her on, aides look at what's been trending on X and from there work out what Badenoch will choose to attack him on.
'It obviously takes some time to improve at PMQs in opposition,' Jessica said. 'That's always been the case for opposition leaders. But Starmer's clearly taken the view that she's not going to be the leader he's facing at the next election. So he doesn't take her questions hugely seriously. He instead concentrates on his own clip that he wants for social media.'
But Badenoch has had notable support. 'Michael Gove wrote a fairly compelling defence of her, saying there's no way anyone else would be doing better,' Jessica added.
And while it's taking the Tories time to adjust to being in opposition, some Conservatives have enjoyed the freedom it has given them. But, as one Tory MP told Jessica: 'Sometimes they seem weirdly happy to be free of government constraints. They can say and do more innovative things, like Jenrick's fare-dodging video. But it's a party flirting with fourth place in the polls.'
The next key date for Badenoch is November, when she could be challenged for the leadership. But with dangers to the party coming right and left, it is hard to see who could take the poisoned chalice and do much better.
Jessica added: 'The first year of opposition is very difficult. The strategy's hard to get right. You're fighting for airtime. The impact she's had is probably just the reality of being first-year opposition after 14 years.'
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