US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August
(Reuters) -El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are expected to be favored through the Northern Hemisphere in summer 2025 (74% chance during June-August), the United States' Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
Chances of ENSO neutral conditions exceed 50% through August-October 2025, it added.
WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.
CONTEXT
The sugar production estimate for the ongoing 2024/25 season has been revised down to 28 million tons due to the adverse impacts of El Niño and limited groundwater resources for irrigation, a report issued on May 05 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service post in New Delhi showed.
KEY QUOTES
"Neutral ENSO really has no usual conditions associated with it as a neutral ENSO results in other conditions influencing the local and global pattern," AccuWeather's lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.
"The pattern this spring has resulted in some dryness concerns in the UK and northern Europe while southern Europe has been wet. It looks like the pattern will change heading into summer with more rain opportunities in northern Europe which may improve crop prospects."
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Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
In 2025, Tornado Alley has become almost everything east of the Rockies — and it's been a violent year
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The high tornado count in 2025 has a lot to do with the weather in March, which broke records with 299 reported tornadoes — far exceeding the average of 80 for that month over the past three decades. March's numbers were driven by two large tornado outbreaks: about 115 tornadoes swept across more than a dozen states March 14-16, stretching from Arkansas to Pennsylvania; and 145 tornadoes hit March 31 to April 1, primarily in a swath from Arkansas to Iowa and eastward. The 2025 numbers are preliminary pending final analyses. While meteorologists don't know for sure why March was so active, there were a couple of ingredients that favor tornadoes: First, in March the climate was in a weak La Niña pattern, which is associated with a wavier and stormier jet stream and, often, with more U.S. tornadoes. Second, the waters of the Gulf were much warmer than normal, which feeds moister air inland to fuel severe thunderstorms. By April and May, however, those ingredients had faded. The weak La Niña ended and the Gulf waters were closer to normal. April and May also produced tornado outbreaks, but the preliminary count over most of this period, since the March 31-April 1 outbreak, has actually been close to the average, though things could still change. What has stood out in April and May is persistence: The jet stream has remained wavy, bringing with it the normal ebb and flow of stormy low-pressure weather systems mixed with sunny high-pressure systems. In May alone, tornadoes were reported in Colorado, Minnesota, Delaware, Florida and just about every state in between. Years with fewer tornadoes often have calm periods of a couple of weeks or longer when a sunny high-pressure system is parked over the central U.S. However, the U.S. didn't really get one of those calm periods in spring 2025. The locations of these storms have also been notable: The 2025 tornadoes through May have been widespread but clustered near the lower and central Mississippi Valley, stretching from Illinois to Mississippi. That's well to the east of traditional Tornado Alley, typically seen as stretching from Texas through Nebraska, and farther east than normal. April through May is still peak season for the Mississippi Valley, though it is usually on the eastern edge of activity rather than at the epicenter. The normal seasonal cycle of tornadoes moves inland from near the Gulf Coast in winter to the upper Midwest and Great Plains by summer. Over the past few decades, the U.S. has seen a broad shift in tornadoes in three ways: to the east, earlier in the year and clustered into larger outbreaks. Winter tornadoes have become more frequent over the eastern U.S., from the southeast, dubbed Dixie Alley for its tornado activity in recent years, to the Midwest, particularly Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana. Meanwhile, there has been a steady and stark decline in tornadoes in the "traditional" tornado season and region: spring and summer in general, especially across the Great Plains. It may come as a surprise that the U.S. has actually seen a decrease in overall U.S. tornado activity over the past several decades, especially for intense tornadoes categorized as EF2 and above. There have been fewer days with a tornado. However, those tornado days have been producing more tornadoes. These trends may have stabilized over the past decade. This eastward shift is likely making tornadoes deadlier. Tornadoes in the Southeastern U.S. are more likely to strike overnight, when people are asleep and cannot quickly protect themselves, which makes these events dramatically more dangerous. 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Tornado Alley is really all of the U.S. east of the Rockies and west of the Appalachians for most of the year. The farther south you live, the longer your tornado season lasts. Forecasters say it every year for hurricanes, and we badly need to start saying it for tornadoes too: It only takes one to make it a bad season for you or your community. Just ask the residents of London, Kentucky; St. Louis; Plevna and Grinnell, Kansas; and McNairy County, Tennessee. Listen to your local meteorologists so you will know when your region is facing a tornado risk. And if you hear sirens or are under a tornado warning, immediately go to your safe space. A tornado may already be on the ground, and you may have only seconds to protect yourself. This edited article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
New York Post
a day ago
- New York Post
Vital hurricane satellites to go dark weeks into Atlantic storm season— and NOAA rips media for causing panic
Vital hurricane-tracking satellites are expected to go dark just weeks into the Atlantic storm season — and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is pointing fingers at the media for fueling panic behind the shutdown while clarifying that crucial data will still be gathered. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), jointly owned by NOAA and the Department of Defense and responsible for critical collecting environmental and weather data, will cease operations Monday amid a string of federal cuts to the administration, the agency announced Wednesday. 'The service change and termination will be permanent,' officials stated in the announcement without providing a reason for ending the crucial service or information about a possible replacement. Advertisement 4 A NOAA spokesperson clarified that a microwave instrument on another satellite will still provide crucial readings. REUTERS A NOAA spokesperson, however, was quick to cast blame on newscasters for 'criticizing' scientists and reporting the service change in a way that could incite public outrage — later clarifying that a microwave instrument on another satellite will still provide crucial readings. 'The DMSP is a single dataset in a robust suit of hurricane forecasting and modeling tools in the NWS portfolio, which also includes microwave sensing data via the recently launched WSF-M satellite, which was the planned replacement for the DPSM program,' Kim Doster told The Post Friday. Advertisement 'The routine process of data rotation and replacement would go unnoticed in past administrations, but the media is insistent on criticizing the great work that NOAA and its dedicated scientists perform every day.' 4 A meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center monitors weather patterns. AFP via Getty Images Despite the terse explanation, experts remain concerned that limited data will hinder efforts to track hurricanes, detect changes in storm structure, and accurately predict a storm's path in real-time. Forecasters depend on polar-orbiting satellites equipped with microwave sensors to track winds speeds and other data connected to intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes — especially at night when other observation methods are limited. Advertisement 'This is an incredibly big hit for hurricane forecasts, and for the tens of millions of Americans who live in hurricane-prone areas,' Michael Lowry, a hurricane specialist in South Florida, told the New York Times. 4 While the military satellites with remain in orbit, their data will not longer be processed by the federal government. REUTERS 'The nightmare scenario is going to bed with a tropical storm and waking up to a hurricane,' he added, explaining that soon-to-be suspended satellite streams are key to preventing a jarring 'sunrise surprise.' With microwave observations also allow meteorologists to locate a storm's center, Lowry warned that being off by even a few miles can have 'huge ramifications.' Advertisement While the military satellites with remain in orbit, their data will not longer be processed by the federal government. 4 NOAA logo on a blue and white surface. AFP /AFP via Getty Images 'We don't want to have less data for no reason,' Andy Hazelton, a hurricane modeling expert at the University of Miami, told the outlet. 'We already don't get as much microwave data as we'd like to see operationally.' The news of the program's suspension came just two days after Tropical Storm Andrea, the first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the central Atlantic Ocean Tuesday morning. Hurricane season typically lasts through the end of November. The White House and Department of Defense did not immediately respond to The Post's request for comment.
San Francisco Chronicle
a day ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Bay Area's final June weekend brings milder coastal weather and inland heat
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