How does Europe's defence spending shape up as Trump pressures allies?
As the NATO summit ended with a commitment to spend 5% of GDP on defence, a Bruegel and Kiel Institute report warns Europe is far from ready to defend itself, at least not by 2030, primarily due to its dependence on foreign production and technology.
"Europe needs to shift its political debate from fiscal numbers to actual military capabilities purchased and delivered in the coming years," the report said.
Currently, Europe imports a substantial amount of weapons. Imports have increased from approximately $3.4 billion (€2.9 billion) for the period between 2019 and 2021 to $8.5 billion (€7.2 billion) between 2022 and 2024 in EU countries.
The US is the main trading partner for military equipment for both the EU and the main European countries, except for France.
For instance, around 70% of the non-European purchases from Poland are contracted with US companies, and the remaining deals are mainly struck with South Korean firms.
However, the average delivery time of defence equipment manufactured in European countries like Germany, the UK and Poland can reach four years.
Europe also lacks some top military technologies, with development timelines often stretching into decades rather than just a few years.
"A reduced or even completely missing technological lead in warfare is becoming an increasing concern across Western militaries and is particularly an issue for Europe," the report stated.
Developing new technologies
New battlefield technologies, such as drones and AI, can be complementary capabilities of a warfighting force.
In Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, drones are responsible for between 60% and 70% of damage currently caused to Russian equipment, according to the UK's defence and security think tank, the Royal United Services Institute.
For instance, the target for the production of first-person-view (FPV) drones in Ukraine for 2025 is around 4.5 million, while that for Russia is between 3 and 4 million.
Speaking from the Hague on the eve of a summit of NATO leaders, the Ukrainian president said the country's defence sector is able to produce much more than it currently does, but is limited by a lack of financing.
"Our defence production potential has surpassed $35 billion (€29 billion)," Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the NATO Defence Industry Forum, with a range of over 1,000 types of weapons produced in the country, including artillery, armoured vehicles, drones, and missiles.
"But around 40% of this potential lacks proper funding. That's a problem. For example, we can produce over 8 million drones of different types each year, but the financing allows for far fewer."
Apart from Ukraine, European armies appear to be further behind on such developments compared to the US.
Although there are emerging European start-ups focused on drone manufacturing, the technology is evolving rapidly, so drones older than six months may already see a significant decline in their effectiveness.
Meanwhile, both Russia and China have substantially advanced their production capacities as well as technological capabilities.
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