IPL playoffs scenarios: With 8 games remaining, MI have 6.3% chance of making top two — odds for each team explained
Mumbai Indians (PTI Photo)
With 8 games remaining in the league stage, CSK, RR, SRH, KKR and LSG are already out of contention for the playoffs.
GT, RCB and PBKS are sure to make the playoffs, while MI and DC contend for a spot, with tonight's match between them a must-win for DC.
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There remain 256 possible combinations of results, so nothing is for sure yet in terms of who finishes where at the end of the league. We look at the probabilities:
We look at the probabilities:
Team
Best case scenario
Worst case scenario
Chances (%) of making or tying for top 4
Chances (%) of making or tying for top 2
RCB
Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and GT lose at least one
Finish sole 4th. Can happen if they lose all their remaining games
100.0
68.8
GT
Sole topper with 22 pts. Can happen if they win their remaining games
Finish tied 3rd with MI by losing all remaining games
100.0
82.8
PBKS
Sole topper with 21 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games and both RCB and GT lose at least one
Finish sole 4th if they lose their remaining games
100.0
68.8
MI
Tied for the top spot at 18 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, RCB, GT and PBKS lose their remaining games
Finish 5
th
by losing all remaining games
62.5
6.3
DC
Tied 2
nd
with RCB and PBKS on 17 pts. Can happen if they win remaining games, while RCB and PBKS lose theirs
Finish 7
th
by losing all the remaining games
37.5
3.1
How we arrive at the probabilities:
There are 256 possible combinations of results remaining with 8 games to go. For each team, we looked at how many of these end up with them being among the top four either singly or tied.
'Chances are still there': Abishek Porel believes in IPL 2025 playoff miracle
We also looked at how many combinations put each team in the top two either singly or jointly.
For instance, DC finish tied for second in just 8 of the possible combinations of match outcomes, translating to a 3.1% chance of being tied for second.
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