Study finds people back climate policies when weather hits home
Published in Nature Climate Change on July 1, the study led by a team of international researchers, including one from Stellenbosch University, revealed that public support for climate action is simply not about experiencing floods, droughts, or heatwaves. Rather, what matters most is whether individuals believe these events are linked to climate change.
'Our data suggest that if individuals attribute extreme weather events to climate change, support for climate policies is higher regardless of whether the events are more frequent. The reverse causal relationship is also possible: people who are supportive of climate policies are more likely to attribute extreme weather to climate change.'
The team collected data from 68 countries, using a mix of natural and social science data. Participants' experiences with extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves and tropical storms, were compared with their support for climate policies like carbon taxes, sustainable energy and forest protection.
Support was highest for protecting forested and land areas (82%) and increasing the use of sustainable energy (75%). However, proposals to raise taxes on carbon-intensive foods and fossil fuels drew the least support, with only 22% and 29% respectively backing them 'very much'.
The study also found regional differences. 'Support for climate policies was particularly high in African and Asian countries, average in Australia, Costa Rica, and the UK, and below the global average in several European countries such as Czechia (Czech Republic), Finland and Norway.'
Demographic differences also emerged. Men, younger people, the highly educated, those with higher incomes, religious individuals, and those with left-leaning political views were more likely to support climate policies.
However, the link between extreme weather and policy support was not consistent across all events. While attribution to climate change played a key role in policy support for heatwaves and cyclones, the same could not be said for heavy rainfall.
The study found a negative relationship between the number of people exposed to heavy precipitation and support for climate policies. 'Subjective attribution was relatively low for heavy precipitation. This corroborates previous findings that people often fail to link extreme rainfall with climate change.'
This may help explain inconsistent findings in previous research. 'Few of these studies assessed whether participants linked these events to climate change, therefore missing a key controlling variable. Consequently, we strongly recommend that future studies assess subjective attribution.'
The researchers referenced media coverage as a potential reason for this. A review of media reports from 10 countries between 2006 and 2018 found that extreme weather reporting mostly focused on hurricanes, storms, fires and other visible anomalies, and less on rain-related events.
'Countries more exposed to heavy precipitation might therefore be less willing to support climate policies because they are less likely to link those events to climate change,' said the researchers. Their analysis also showed that the negative effects of rainfall exposure on policy support were strongest among people who did not believe climate change caused those events.
'This further highlights the need for more research on climate change communication on types of extreme weather events that are not typically associated with climate change, such as heavy precipitation, as these events might serve as 'teachable moments'.'
However, they cautioned that the relationship between rainfall exposure and climate policy support was not always significant, especially in exploratory models that considered additional variables like land area and climate change belief.
'This finding should therefore be interpreted with caution,' said the researchers.
'The researchers call for more studies about effective climate change communication on types of extreme weather events that are not typically associated with climate.'
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5 days ago
- TimesLIVE
Study finds people back climate policies when weather hits home
People are more likely to support climate policies when they believe extreme weather events are caused by climate change, a new international study has found. Published in Nature Climate Change on July 1, the study led by a team of international researchers, including one from Stellenbosch University, revealed that public support for climate action is simply not about experiencing floods, droughts, or heatwaves. Rather, what matters most is whether individuals believe these events are linked to climate change. 'Our data suggest that if individuals attribute extreme weather events to climate change, support for climate policies is higher regardless of whether the events are more frequent. The reverse causal relationship is also possible: people who are supportive of climate policies are more likely to attribute extreme weather to climate change.' The team collected data from 68 countries, using a mix of natural and social science data. Participants' experiences with extreme weather, such as floods, heatwaves and tropical storms, were compared with their support for climate policies like carbon taxes, sustainable energy and forest protection. Support was highest for protecting forested and land areas (82%) and increasing the use of sustainable energy (75%). However, proposals to raise taxes on carbon-intensive foods and fossil fuels drew the least support, with only 22% and 29% respectively backing them 'very much'. The study also found regional differences. 'Support for climate policies was particularly high in African and Asian countries, average in Australia, Costa Rica, and the UK, and below the global average in several European countries such as Czechia (Czech Republic), Finland and Norway.' Demographic differences also emerged. Men, younger people, the highly educated, those with higher incomes, religious individuals, and those with left-leaning political views were more likely to support climate policies. However, the link between extreme weather and policy support was not consistent across all events. While attribution to climate change played a key role in policy support for heatwaves and cyclones, the same could not be said for heavy rainfall. The study found a negative relationship between the number of people exposed to heavy precipitation and support for climate policies. 'Subjective attribution was relatively low for heavy precipitation. This corroborates previous findings that people often fail to link extreme rainfall with climate change.' This may help explain inconsistent findings in previous research. 'Few of these studies assessed whether participants linked these events to climate change, therefore missing a key controlling variable. Consequently, we strongly recommend that future studies assess subjective attribution.' The researchers referenced media coverage as a potential reason for this. A review of media reports from 10 countries between 2006 and 2018 found that extreme weather reporting mostly focused on hurricanes, storms, fires and other visible anomalies, and less on rain-related events. 'Countries more exposed to heavy precipitation might therefore be less willing to support climate policies because they are less likely to link those events to climate change,' said the researchers. Their analysis also showed that the negative effects of rainfall exposure on policy support were strongest among people who did not believe climate change caused those events. 'This further highlights the need for more research on climate change communication on types of extreme weather events that are not typically associated with climate change, such as heavy precipitation, as these events might serve as 'teachable moments'.' However, they cautioned that the relationship between rainfall exposure and climate policy support was not always significant, especially in exploratory models that considered additional variables like land area and climate change belief. 'This finding should therefore be interpreted with caution,' said the researchers. 'The researchers call for more studies about effective climate change communication on types of extreme weather events that are not typically associated with climate.'
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The launch event at the CERI Headquarters on Stellenbosch University's Tygerberg Campus included a tour of laboratories, a panel discussion and a grant award ceremony attended by senior officials and dignitaries. Image: Stellenbosch University Cape Town witnessed a significant step forward in public health as the new phase of the Genomic Surveillance Project was officially launched. A collaboration between the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI) at Stellenbosch University and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), this initiative aims to upscale the monitoring and analysis of genetic information from pathogens that pose a threat to public health. The project is part of the GIZ SAVax Programme, co-funded by the German Government, the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), and the European Union (EU). 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Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad loading The new phase of the Genomic Surveillance Project will build on existing progress with additional funding of R9 million, bringing total investment in the partnership to R12 million. Image: Stellenbosch University The launch event at the CERI Headquarters on Stellenbosch University's Tygerberg Campus featured a tour of laboratories, a panel discussion, and a grant award ceremony attended by senior officials and dignitaries. Mr. Fulgencio Garrido Ruiz, EU Deputy Ambassador to South Africa, expressed the importance of this collaboration: 'We are delighted to expand the collaboration with South Africa, especially as it plays a strategic role within the Team Europe Initiative MAV+.' The EU's MAV+ initiative has mobilised significant resources, including over €700 million for pandemic preparedness across the region, with €10 million directed specifically towards research infrastructure in South Africa. Garrido underlined the vision of enhancing self-sufficiency through local research frameworks to empower nations to independently tackle health crises. The emphasis on the collaborative aspect of health security was echoed by Sven Hartwig, Deputy Consul General of the German Consulate General, who stated, 'This launch highlights that surveillance for pandemic preparedness relies on partnership and collaboration between the public and private sectors, academia, and civil society.' Dr. Anban Pillay from the National Department of Health highlighted the cultural shift towards cooperation fostered by CERI and Stellenbosch University. Claudia Aguirre, head of the GIZ SAVax programme, remarked on the programme's role in bolstering capacity building and supporting African scientists in finding solutions tailored to the continent's unique health challenges. In the first phase of the CERI project, running from 2023-2024, over 1,000 pathogen genomes were sequenced, and more than 50 African scientists trained in genomic techniques. The second phase (2025-2026) will expand genomic surveillance efforts and promote the integration of data crucial for shaping public health policies. As South Africa takes on a pivotal role in global biosecurity, it becomes the second Southern Hemisphere nation, post-Australia, to provide real-time genomic tracking for winter disease pathogens Additionally, the project aims to strengthen laboratory infrastructure in under-resourced provinces while focusing on developing the careers of scientists from Historically Disadvantaged Universities.
