NASCAR predictions for Indianapolis: Brickyard 400 picks, In-Season Challenge Winner
Ahead of Sunday's race in Indianapolis, let's dive into our NASCAR predictions for the Brickyard 400.
In-Season Challenge: Ty Gibbs beats Ty Dillon
There wasn't a ton of excitement for the NASCAR In-Season Challenge when it started. Then, things got interesting when the 32-seed, Ty Dillon, advanced past No. 1 seed Denny Hamlin (DNF) in the first round at Atlanta. Surely, the lowest-seeded driver would lose to Brad Keselowski at Chicago. Except, Keselowski DNF'd and Dillon advanced again. At Sonoma, in the closing laps, Dillon took his fate in the In-Season Challenge into his own hands by bumping Alex Bowman out of the way. In the Final Four battle against John Hunter Nemechek, he won head-to-head in the closing laps to reach the final at Indianapolis.
The Cinderella run ends here. As motivated as Kaulig Racing and the No. 10 team will be to defeat Ty Gibbs and claim the $1 million prize, making it their entire focus this week, it's just not going to happen. Gibbs, who has an 8.0 average finishing position over the last seven races, has vastly superior equipment and support from Joe Gibbs Racing. He's going to beat Dillon by 10-plus spots and take home the $1 million prize.
Denny Hamlin is the Stage 1 winner
Denny Hamlin has never won at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but he did secure a Stage 1 victory at the Brickyard 400 last season. History will repeat itself in 2025. Thanks to an outstanding starting position, Hamlin will be near the front of the field and work his way past Kyle Larson, Tyler Reddick, and Joey Logano to win Stage 1. He'll add to his playoff point total but will fall short of adding that elusive victory at Indy that has evaded him for his entire career.
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Chase Elliott wins Stage 2
Crew chief Alan Gustafson might've cost Chase Elliott pivotal playoff points in the NASCAR standings with his decision to pit late at Dover. Those are five playoff points the No. 9 team can never get back, but they can strategize to start adding to their total with a stage win in the Brickyard 400. While Elliott hasn't been great in qualifying this season (15.8 average starting position, 14th in Cup Series), he knows how to navigate his way to the top of the field.
Elliott also comes to Indianapolis on a hot streak. He boasts a 5.66 average finishing position over the last six races. He'll earn a few points with a top-10 in Stage 1, but it's going to be outstanding driving and better strategy that earn him the Stage 2 win, picking up a much-needed playoff point. Elliott will also finish the day among the four biggest point earners.
Joey Logano, Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Denny Hamlin wreck
For Joey Logano, the reigning NASCAR Cup Series champion, the 2025 season has been a bit of a disappointment. He's already locked into the playoffs thanks to a victory at Texas Motor Speedway, but he has just one top-10 finish in the last seven weeks and an 18.43 average finishing position. He'll pick up points on both stages at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but some tight racing on the final stage will take him out, along with Hamlin and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. It would be Logano's fourth DNF of the season.
Top 5: Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, William Byron and Ty Gibbs
Unsurprisingly, JGR and Hendrick Motorsports are largely going to control the race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. While the two teams had only three of the top-10 finishers last season, 2025 is demonstrating that they are simply operating at a higher level than anyone else. Better cars and superior drivers mean more in a race that can turn into a battle of attrition, allowing JGR and Hendrick to claim three of the top-five spots and six of the top 10.
Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney builds on the positive momentum he created at Dover (8th place) and carries it over into a top-five finish with the second-most stage points on the day. Likewise, Tyler Reddick delivers a top-five finish and will essentially lock himself into the playoffs based on points.
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Kyle Larson wins the Brickyard 400
Our NASCAR predictions last week had Denny Hamlin making it back-to-back wins at Dover, and we see the same happening for Kyle Larson at Indy. The No. 5 car finally showed the speed at Dover that we're used to seeing, as Larson navigated his way up from 25th on the starting grid to a fourth-place finish. Now, he heads back to the track where he crashed during his IndyCar debut. It's a golden opportunity for redemption, especially given how that disastrous 'Double' attempt seemed to rattle him for more than a month. He puts it all behind him on Sunday, picking up his fourth win of the season.
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