Saharan dust, wind shear keeping tropics quiet, but for how long? The hurricane outlook
Tropical conditions are expected to be quiet as Saharan dust and wind shear help prevent any storm development. No tropical activity is expected over the next seven days, or maybe even a little longer.
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AccuWeather lede hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said there is a low risk of tropical development in the same area where Chantal formed.
Elsewhere, the National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves, including two in the Caribbean.
The next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter.
So far, two of the Atlantic season's three named storms — Barry and Chantal — have formed earlier than historical averages. Forecasters have been predicting the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be above normal.
Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Temperatures across Florida July 8 are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s, but the heat index could get as high as 106 in some areas and in the triple digits for most of the state.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., July 8:
The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including two in the Caribbean:
Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 33W from 02-16N.
Tropical wave 2: A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 50W from 03-18N.
Tropical wave 3: An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 68W from the British Virgin Islands southward to central Venezuela.
Tropical wave 4: A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 89W from the Yucatan Peninsula southward across central America and into the Eastern Pacific near 03N89W.
At least in the short term, the tropics should remain quiet, according to both the National Hurricane Center and AccuWeather.
"The majority of the Atlantic basin is basically going to be shut down over the next two weeks," DaSilva said via email.
"There's simply too much wind and too much African dust coming across the Atlantic right now. There's a lot of African dust, which is common this time of the year. June and July typically have the most African dust coming across the Atlantic Basin, and this year is no different."
There is a low risk of tropical development around July 14-17, DaSilva said.
"It's in the northeastern Gulf and off the southeast coast, a very similar area to where we outlooked Chantal. I think it's a similar setup, but not the exact same thing. We are going to have a cold front coming down in that area and you can get a little bit of spin on the end of it. It looks like there could be a little more wind shear with this setup, potentially, and that could prevent development.
"Either way, it looks like over the entirety of the Atlantic Basin, if anything is going to develop here over the next couple of weeks, it's likely to be really close to home. It's likely to be that what we call homegrown tropical development in the northeastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," DaSilva said.
"Much like Chantal, if something develops, it's unlikely that it would become a hurricane. I don't think it would have enough time to develop, and also it's got to deal with some of that wind shear. If anything develops, it would likely be a tropical depression or tropical storm, and that's if anything develops at all."
Historically, July tropical systems develop close to the United States, in the Gulf, Caribbean and in the southwestern Atlantic. Later in the season, they form out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above normal by NOAA, AccuWeather and Colorado State University forecasters.
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
"We're off to a hot start in the Atlantic basin this season," DaSilva said.
Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages:
Tropical Storm Andrea: formed Juned 24. Average start date: June 20
Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17
Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3.
The fourth named storm typically develops Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11. The next named storm of the season will be Dexter.
If you don't remember Dexter among the list of storms for the Atlantic, there's a good reason for it.
Dexter replaced Dorian after that hurricane caused destruction in the Bahamas in 2019 and threatened Florida as a major hurricane before skirting the coast as it turned north.
Hurricane names are selected by the World Meteorological Organization. There are six lists of names, along with a list of alternative names if all names are used during the hurricane season. A name is retired and a new name chosen "because of the death and destruction" they caused."
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea (June 24)
Barry (June 29)
Chantal (July 5)
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
Florida weather forecast for July 8, 2025
Pensacola, western Panhandle: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High near 90.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Today will be a classic summer day, featuring scattered thunderstorms and seasonably hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s. High 92 with heat index as high as 102.
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida:Summer heat and storms continue today. Daily heat index 100-105 this week. High today 94.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Scattered showers and storms forecast today. Warm with highs in the low 90s and peak heat indices up to 106. Highs near 89 from Daytona Beach to 88 in Stuart.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: A typical summertime pattern remains in place across South Florida today with the highest chances of showers and storms focusing over Southwest Florida this afternoon. Highs range from 86 in West Palm Beach to 92 in Naples, with heat index as high as 103.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: Scattered showers and thunderstorms . Highs 90 to 95. Highs range from 89 in Sarasota with heat index as high as 101, to 93 in Fort Myers with a heat index as high as 104.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Hurricane Center tracking tropical waves: The NOAA forecast
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KERRVILLE, Texas (AP) — Over the last decade, an array of Texas state and local agencies missed opportunities to fund a flood warning system intended to avert a disaster like the one that killed dozens of young campers and scores of others in Kerr County on the Fourth of July. The agencies repeatedly failed to secure roughly $1 million for a project to better protect the county's 50,000 residents and thousands of youth campers and tourists who spend time along the Guadalupe River in an area known as 'flash-flood alley.' The plan, which would have installed flood monitoring equipment near Camp Mystic, cost about as much as the county spends on courthouse security every two years, or 1.5% of its annual budget. Meanwhile, other communities had moved ahead with sirens and warning systems of their own. In nearby Comfort, a long, flat-three minute warning sound signifying flood danger helped evacuate the town of 2,000 people as practiced. Previous floods provided warnings A deadly 2015 Memorial Day flood in Kerr County rekindled debate over whether to install a flood monitoring system and sirens to alert the public to evacuate when the river rose to dangerous levels. Some officials, cognizant of a 1987 flood that killed eight people on a church camp bus, thought it was finally time. But the idea soon ran into opposition. Some residents and elected officials opposed the installation of sirens, citing the cost and noise that they feared would result from repeated alarms. County commissioners sought compromise. They moved forward with a plan for a warning system without sirens, which would improve flood monitoring with a series of sensors but leave it up to local authorities to alert the public. They didn't want to pay for it on their own but found little help elsewhere. The county's largest city, Kerrville, declined to participate in a joint grant application that would have required a $50,000 contribution. The state's emergency management agency twice passed over the county's request for hazard mitigation funding, citing a deficiency in the application and then backing communities ravaged by Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The state's flood infrastructure fund later offered an interest-free loan for the project — but that plan was seen as too stingy and turned down by the agency in charge of managing the watershed. A failure to act Without the flood monitoring system, the county was left vulnerable when rains pounded the area in the early morning hours of July 4 and the river rapidly rose. 'There wasn't enough fight in them, and there needs to be more fight this time,' said Nicole Wilson, a San Antonio mother who pulled her daughters out of an area camp ahead of the flooding and who launched an online petition calling on Kerr County to install the sirens. 'Whether it's a combination of city, state and federal funding, there simply can't be the answer of 'no' this time.' Local authorities and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott have urged the public not to point fingers after the flooding, which killed at least 120 people and left scores more reported missing. 'I would be willing to talk about it but not yet. It's just too raw right now,' said Glenn Andrew, a former Kerrville city council member who voted in 2017 to pull the city out of the grant proposal for the project. 'My preference is to look forward to the future.' A spokesperson for Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said Wednesday that lawmakers, who begin a special session later this month, would approve funding to cover such projects in the future. 'The state will provide emergency warning sirens where needed,' Patrick spokesperson Steven Aranyi wrote in an email. But some anger is starting to boil over. Raymond Howard, a city council member in Ingram, Texas, in Kerr County, said Wednesday it's 'unfathomable' that county officials never took action despite repeatedly talking about it. 'That's just mind-boggling,' he said. 'It's unfathomable that they never worked on it. If it comes down to funding, they're constantly raising taxes on us for other stuff. This is more important. This is lives. This is families. This is heartbreaking.' Howard, who lives in a home along the Guadalupe River, said any action now would come too late for those who have died. Another chance ended in diverted funds Kerr County requested a flood warning system grant in 2016 through the Texas Division of Emergency Management's hazard mitigation program, which is supported by Federal Emergency Management Agency funding to help communities reduce their risk. But that application was rejected because it did not meet federal specifications, including one that required the county have a current hazard mitigation plan on file, Texas emergency management spokesperson Wes Rapaport said. The county hired a consultant and an engineering firm to help prepare another application for the project for the next funding cycle in 2017. The system outlined in the county's preliminary plan would provide 'mass notifications to citizens about high water levels and flooding conditions throughout Kerr County.' At targeted low water crossings within Kerr County, sensors connected to monitoring stations would transmit a signal that would notify local officials and emergency management agencies of the rising water levels. Officials envisioned using that information to alert the public and call their contacts at youth camps and RV parks during emergencies. But after Hurricane Harvey caused record flooding in Houston and other areas of Texas in August 2017, 'funding was distributed to counties that fell under the disaster declaration, which Kerr County was not included on,' Rapaport said. The City of Kerrville's council voted 4-0 to decline to participate in the grant proposal, balking at its planned $50,000 contribution, minutes show. Texas voters created a new funding source for such projects in 2019, backing a constitutional amendment to create a state flood infrastructure fund with an initial $800 million investment. The Upper Guadalupe River Authority, which manages the watershed in Kerr County, revived the project last year with a $1 million initial request for funding. The Texas Water Development Board, which oversees the fund, offered a $50,000 grant and a $950,000 interest-free loan for the rest of the project. ___
