Vietnam Q2 GDP growth quickens on strong exports, US trade deal brightens outlook
Concerns over the South-east Asian manufacturing hub's outlook had been growing in the run up to the trade deal announced on Wednesday (Jul 2), particularly as the United States is Vietnam's biggest export market.
Gross domestic product growth in the April to June quarter accelerated to 7.96 per cent year on year, from the 6.93 per cent in the first quarter, government data showed on Saturday.
It was just short of Hanoi's full-year growth target of at least 8 per cent.
'Economic performance in the first half of this year was positive and close to our target amid global and regional economic uncertainties,' the National Statistics Office (NSO) said.
Exports were a bright spot in the last quarter, rising 18.0 per cent to US$116.93 billion from a year earlier, while imports were up 18.8 per cent at US$112.52 billion, translating into a trade surplus of US$4.41 billion, the NSO data showed.
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Industrial production in the period rose 10.3 per cent, while June consumer prices rose 3.57 per cent.
Trump announced on Wednesday the United States and Vietnam reached a trade deal, under which Vietnamese goods would face a 20 per cent tariff, with trans-shipments from third countries through Vietnam also facing a 40 per cent levy. Vietnam could import US products with a zero per cent tariff.
The tariff rates were lower than an initial 46 per cent rate threatened by Trump in April.
Vietnam hailed the deal as a boost for business and said negotiators were working to finalise details, as business groups awaited clarity on the finer points to assess the impact of the new tariffs.
The United States is the largest export market for Vietnam, a regional manufacturing hub housing several multinational companies such as Samsung Electronics and Foxconn. The United States recorded a trade deficit of US$123 billion with Vietnam last year, one of its highest globally.
Vietnam is also home to several Chinese companies, which analysts said are likely the main targets for the 40 per cent tariff on trans-shipments. China is Vietnam's largest two-way trading partner on which it relies heavily for components and materials for its manufacturing industries.
Fitch Solutions said in a note on Friday that Vietnam's exports and investment will remain strong for the rest of the year and signalled upside risks for its 2025 GDP growth forecast of 6.4 per cent.
'With the new 20 per cent tariff, we think the government will speed up industrial upgrading and shift exports from low-margin goods to higher value-added products such as semiconductors,' it said in a note.
Dominic Scriven, founder and chairman of investment firm Dragon Capital, said the trade deal is 'net-positive' and the potential GDP hit is less severe than feared.
'With external trade risk now moderating, attention can return to the country's core growth engine, the domestic and private sector economy,' he said. REUTERS
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