Inside Line: Who Ends Alex Palou-Kyle Kirkwood Streak at Mid-Ohio?
Today's question: Alex Palou and Kyle Kirkwood are the only drivers to win an NTT INDYCAR SERIES race this season. Which driver is most likely to end that streak this Sunday in The Honda Indy 200 at Mid-Ohio Presented by the All-New 2026 Passport?
Curt Cavin: Arrow McLaren's Pato O'Ward has been among the closest to derailing this year's Palou-Kirkwood train, and Mid-Ohio will be a return to the scene of one of his three race wins from a year ago. O'Ward leads this season in second-place finishes in 2025 – he has three – and one of those was a brilliant drive at The Thermal Club in which he led 51 of the 65 laps. He also finished second on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course and at World Wide Technology Raceway. Nine drivers in this field have won NTT INDYCAR SERIES races at Mid-Ohio, including eight in the past eight races, but it feels like O'Ward will break several trends this weekend.
Eric Smith: I'm predicting the upset. One could consider two winners in nine NTT INDYCAR SERIES races an upset in and of itself. So could Robert Shwartzman winning the pole for the 109th Running of the Indianapolis 500 presented by Gainbridge. To continue that theme, how about more chaos? Wouldn't it be fitting if a rookie ended this Palou/Kirkwood domination? I'm going with Louis Foster for the win on Sunday. It's not as far-fetched as it seems. He became the second rookie NTT P1 Award winner of the season the last time out in Road America. Foster is also good at Mid-Ohio. He finished first and second, respectively, in USF Pro 2000 competition in 2022. He earned his first INDY NXT by Firestone win here in 2023 and finished second last year. RLL typically produces strong cars on its home track, and Foster has been fast on natural road courses this season to the tune of qualifying 10th, 12th, third and first, respectively. With a fast car, a strong track for him and the team, plus the ability to go off strategy if needed, give me the upset. Bobby Rahal earned his first Mid-Ohio victory 40 years ago. His son and Foster's teammate, Graham Rahal, won 10 years ago. The year of the '5s' is kind to the Rahal's at Mid-Ohio, so how about the No. 45 RLL Honda to victory lane on Sunday.
Arni Sribhen: You can't talk about an INDYCAR SERIES race at Mid-Ohio and not begin a list of favorites to win with Scott Dixon. But I'm going to focus on another Kiwi who runs well at Mid-Ohio – Team Penske's Scott McLaughlin. Scotty Mac has history at Mid-Ohio. He's the only driver not named Alex Palou to finish in the top five in each of the last three seasons at Mid-Ohio and he knows how to win at there, notching a victory in 2022. Chevrolet's still looking for win No. 1 for one of its drivers this season and winning in Honda's backyard with the Team Penske driver and the 'Thirsty 3s' would be an ideal place to get it done.
Paul Kelly: It's Will Power's time to end the Palou-Kirkwood duopoly and put Team Penske back into victory lane for the first time since Scott McLaughlin won last Sept. 1 at Milwaukee, as crazy as that sounds. Power has successful recent history at Mid-Ohio, and I think recognizing that recent success is more important due to the changes in the NTT INDYCAR SERIES car since 2019, namely the addition of the aeroscreen and the hybrid. Power won in 2020 with the aeroscreen and finished third in 2022 and 2023. Plus, Power has been the best of the three Team Penske drivers in this disappointing season, with more top-five and top-10 finishes than teammates McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden. There's also the well-known matter that Power is in a contract year, and who knows what his future with the team is at this point? But delivering the first winner's trophy to Roger Penske this season might not hurt Willy P's chances at an extension if a decision hasn't been made already.
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