National Hurricane Center monitoring system that could develop into season's first storm
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low-pressure system about 450 miles east of Bermuda show the potential for becoming a short-lived tropical depression, the hurricane center said at 8 p.m. ET on June 22.
Satellite images showed it has some signs of organization, which could briefly become a tropical depression over the next day or so, according to the center's forecast by Philippe Papin, a hurricane specialist.
The forecast gives the system a 40% chance of becoming a depression over the next 48 hours. But by June 24, the system is expected to encounter less favorable conditions that would end its chances of becoming anything more than a depression.
The system's forecast to continue moving northeastward at 5 to 10 mph over the open Central Atlantic and poses no threat to land.
Long-range seasonal outlooks for the Atlantic hurricane season that started on June 1 call for a busier-than-normal season with more than a dozen named storms.
Elsewhere, the long-range outlook from the Climate Prediction Center doesn't indicate any other storm development over the Atlantic hurricane basin, including the Caribbean, before July 8.
The Eastern Pacific, which already has seen five named storms since its season began on May 15, remains active. The hurricane center gives a system a couple of hundred miles offshore of Central America a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression later in the week of June 22, according to Papin's update.
Even before it develops into anything further, the system is forecast to produce heavy rainfall over portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, then into El Salvador and Guatemala over the next few days.
The most recent storm, Hurricane Erick, struck the southern coast of Mexico with 125 mph sustained winds, a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and monstrous waves. Reuters reported the storm left a trail of damage, including sunken boats and flooding.
Regardless of how many storms threaten in the Atlantic this summer, the hurricane center advises that it only takes one to ruin someone's year. The center's director, Michael Brennan, encourages people who live in hurricane-prone areas to be prepared in advance.
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@usatoday.com or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
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