Oil Prices Spike As Trump's Shortened Deadline
Turkiye might also be excluded given its attempt to expand its influence eastward at Russia's expense, as could minor US trade partners like the Central Asian Republics as long as they curtail trade with Russia.
The question on everyone's mind is whether he'll tariff China and India, if they don't cut off or at least curtail their resource-centric imports from Russia, that is. They're Russia's top trading partners, which collectively form the RIC core of BRICS, yet they trade more with the US (with whom they're in ongoing trade negotiations) than with Russia. China and India are also some of the world's largest economies so the US' imposition of 100% tariffs could destabilize the global economy and raise prices for Americans.
Trump just clinched a lopsided trade deal with the EU that turned it into the US' largest-ever vassal state, which might embolden him to tariff China and/or India despite their ongoing trade talks if they defy him should he believe that this new arrangement can help reduce the blowback to the US. He's therefore calculating that China and/or India will at least curtail energy imports from Russia, whether voluntarily or under tariff duress, thus hitting its coffers and making Putin more pliable to concessions with time.
For his part, Putin is calculating that Russia can still achieve its goals in full – controlling the entirety of the disputed regions, demilitarizing Ukraine, denazifying it, and then restoring its constitutional neutrality – even if China and/or India curtail trade with it, though he's not sure they will. Each is under tremendous pressure from the US in their own way so he might expect them to defy it. If both do so, then they might patch up their problems, thus turning RIC into a force to be reckoned with by the US.
Trump's and Putin's calculations have the prisoner's dilemma in common. Trump's tariff threats and the other arms-related pillars of his new three-pronged policy towards Ukraine are correspondingly intended to coerce economic-political concessions from China and India and geopolitical-security ones from Russia. He expects at least one of BRICS' Asian anchors to even only partially comply, thus enabling him to exacerbate the Sino-Indo rivalry for the US' hegemonic benefit and then put more pressure on Russia.
None of them wants to be the last to reach a deal with the US, Trump believes, and accordingly have much less negotiating flexibility than ever. Putin conversely believes that China and India are more concerned about the consequences of the other becoming Russia's top partner if their country complies with the US but their rival doesn't (as explained here) than with the consequences of Trump's threatened tariffs. He's also confident that the US can't stop Russia from achieving its goals in any case.
Trump's shortened deadline for Putin will therefore soon reveal which of them miscalculated. The whole reason why everything has gotten to the point where the US might further escalate its involvement in this conflict is due to Trump being manipulated into mission creep by Lindsey Graham and others as elaborated in the preceding hyperlinked analyses. Early June's assessment that 'The Russian-Ukrainian Talks Are At An Impasse That Only The US Or Brute Force Can Break' has just been vindicated.
Also read: Thailand, Cambodia Agree To Ceasefire Following Trump's Diplomatic Pressure
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Gulf Insider
14 hours ago
- Gulf Insider
Trump Calls India, Russia "Dead Economies" Tariff Standoff
President Trump first announced his tariff 'Liberation Day' in April, and the measures are now set to take effect tomorrow. While countries like Europe, Japan, and South Korea have capitulated to the Trump administration's mounting pressure and signed trade deals, others, such as India, remain holdouts. In response, Trump lashed out on Truth Social media early Thursday morning, labeling India a 'dead economy' and claiming the U.S. does 'very little business' with the country. 'I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care,' Trump wrote on his social media platform. He continued, 'We have done very little business with India, their Tariffs are too high, among the highest in the World,' adding, 'Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let's keep it that way, and tell Medvedev, the failed former President of Russia, who thinks he's still President, to watch his words. He's entering very dangerous territory!' On Wednesday morning, Trump fired off another Truth Social post about India, indicating New Delhi faces 25% tariff plus penalties starting on Friday. He criticized India's close ties to Moscow during the Ukraine war, describing them as 'not good,' and emphasized that the U.S. has done relatively little business with India. It remains unclear whether U.S. and Indian trade negotiators can reach a deal before the deadline. However, Trump's comments on Truth Social suggest the talks are not going well. A statement from the Indian government yesterday pointed out that a trade deal with the U.S. must be 'mutually beneficial' and protect its farmers and small businesses. According to analysts at Mumbai-headquartered Axis Bank, 25% tariffs on Indian goods would have a $10 billion impact on exporters. Société Générale analyst Kunal Kundu said the tariffs could 'dampen domestic sentiment' and 'expectation of maintaining a relative tariff advantage over competitors in labour-intensive exports has been undermined.' He noted that 'disadvantage is not excessively severe.' 'Trump's causing a lot of trouble for Modi,' said Derek Grossman, a former U.S. intelligence official who is now a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, who Bloomberg quoted. 'A lot of damage has been done today, more than at any time I can remember,' Grossman added. 'I'm not saying that the relationship is going to collapse or anything like that. It'll persist, but I feel like India will be far more circumspect in dealing with America from this point forward.' So much for all those signs of progress in April when Vice President JD Vance visited India. Vance at the time called a US-India relationship a 'win-win partnership' and sought stronger ties with New Delhi in energy and defense trade. Important to note: India and Russia are part of the BRICS system, challenging the US status quo. Also read: Declassified Documents Confirm Hillary Clinton Plan To Smear Trump, Use FBI
Gulf Insider
14 hours ago
- Gulf Insider
RFK Jr. Drops Stunning New Vaccine Announcement
HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. just took aim at a system that has failed Americans for nearly 40 years, the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP). This program was created under the 1986 National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act, which shielded vaccine manufacturers from lawsuits over injury claims. Before becoming HHS Secretary, Kennedy exposed how vaccine manufacturers were being hammered with lawsuits due to injuries. One of the largest manufacturers at the time, Wyeth (now part of Pfizer), reportedly told President Reagan: give us legal protection or we'll stop making vaccines. Reagan's response? Why not just make safer vaccines? Wyeth's answer: Vaccines are 'unavoidably unsafe.' That phrase— ' unavoidably unsafe ' —would later appear in a Supreme Court decision and reflects the legal premise that some vaccine injuries are inevitable. 'And so, anybody who tells you vaccines are safe and effective, the industry itself got immunity from liability by convincing the President and Congress that vaccines are unavoidably unsafe,' Kennedy previously stated. Before becoming HHS Secretary, Kennedy exposed how vaccine manufacturers were being hammered with lawsuits due to of the largest manufacturers at the time, Wyeth (now part of Pfizer), reportedly told President Reagan: give us legal protection or we'll stop making… — The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) July 28, 2025 Senator Edward Kennedy, a key sponsor of the law, wrote at the time: 'When … children are the victims of an appropriate and rational national policy, a compassionate government will assist them in their hour of need.' That compassionate government never showed up. Over 39 years, the VICP has awarded just $5.4 billion to 12,000 victims. That comes out to about '1.2 awards per million doses administered.' In a brand-new statement on X, Secretary Kennedy said he intends to FIX the broken system. He explained that the court was meant to resolve claims 'quickly and fairly,' with 'doubts about causation resolved in favor of the victim.' But that hasn't happened. 'The structure itself hobbles claimants,' Kennedy wrote. 'The defendant is HHS, not the vaccine makers; and claimants are therefore facing the monumental power and bottomless pockets of the U.S. government represented by the Department of Justice.' He explained how Special Masters, who decide the cases, often come from government or political backgrounds and typically show a strong pro-government bias. 'There is no discovery, and the rules of evidence do not apply,' Kennedy lamented. He added that petitioners' attorneys report retaliation, fee suppression, and even denied access to the Vaccine Safety Datalink, a taxpayer-funded CDC database containing the best data on vaccine injuries. Worse, expert witnesses for injured children have reported intimidation and threats to their careers, including the loss of NIH funding if they testify. But Kennedy says that era is over. 'The VICP is broken, and I intend to fix it,' he wrote on X. 'I will not allow the VICP to continue to ignore its mandate and fail its mission of quickly and fairly compensating vaccine-injured individuals.' Kennedy added that he is working closely with AG Pam Bondi and HHS staff to restore the court's original mission and pledges to 'steer the Vaccine Court back to its original Congressional intent.' Also read: Survey Reveals 'Seismic Shift' As More Parents Reject Vaccine Schedule
Gulf Insider
14 hours ago
- Gulf Insider
Declassified Documents Confirm Hillary Clinton Plan
On Thursday, newly declassified documents reveal that not only did the CIA believe a Russian intelligence assessment that the 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign planned to smear Donald Trump by linking him to the Kremlin, it's clear that the FBI helped the Clinton campaign orchestrate the Russia hoax to distract from its investigation into her emails. To review: Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard earlier this month declassified several documents – including a 2020 House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) report and other intelligence communications revealing that the Obama administration 'manufactured and politicized intelligence' to create a false narrative that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump defeat Hillary Clinton. – including a 2020 House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence (HPSCI) report and other intelligence communications revealing that that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump defeat Hillary Clinton. Gabbard's releases highlight the inclusion of the Steele dossier – an unverified report funded by the Clinton campaign alleging ties between Trump and Russia – in the 2017 ICA as an annex. The hoax dossier was used to bolster the Russian interference narrative, despite CIA objections and its discredited status. The HPSCI report states that Brennan insisted on referencing the dossier, even though senior CIA officers warned it was flawed , with Brennan allegedly saying, 'doesn't it ring true? The HPSCI report states that , with Brennan allegedly saying, 'doesn't it ring true? Gabbard has called these actions a 'treasonous conspiracy' led by Obama, Brennan, Clapper, James Comey, Susan Rice, and others, aimed at undermining Trump's presidency. She has referred the documents to the Justice Department and FBI for investigation into potential criminal implications. And now we have the Durham annex… which includes a 2016 memorandum alleging that Russian intelligence knew of a Clinton campaign plan to tie Trump to Russian hackers. This memo claims the plan was designed to 'distract the [American] public from the Clinton email server scandal.' Gabbard's HPSCI report similarly references Russian intelligence claiming Clinton's campaign discussed linking Putin to Trump. Clinton's Approval of Smear Campaign : Pages 4 and 5 of the annex, highlighted in X posts, contain a 2016 memorandum alleging that Clinton personally approved a plan on July 26, 2016, to frame Trump with Russian hacking claims. The memo suggests this was to distract from her email scandal, with coordination involving DNC leadership and outside groups. : Pages 4 and 5 of the annex, highlighted in X posts, contain a 2016 memorandum alleging that Clinton personally approved a plan on July 26, 2016, to frame Trump with Russian hacking claims. The memo suggests this was to distract from her email scandal, with coordination involving DNC leadership and outside groups. Russian Intelligence Awareness : The annex confirms that Russian intelligence was aware of this plan, which aligns with Gabbard's claim that the FBI and CIA had access to this information but pursued the Trump-Russia narrative anyway. : The annex confirms that Russian intelligence was aware of this plan, which aligns with Gabbard's claim that the FBI and CIA had access to this information but pursued the Trump-Russia narrative anyway. No New Criminal Charges: Despite these allegations, Durham's broader investigation (2019–2023) found no evidence of a criminal conspiracy among Obama officials to fabricate intelligence. He criticized the FBI's handling of the Steele dossier and Crossfire Hurricane but did not charge Brennan, Clapper, or others named by Gabbard. As ZH regular TechnoFog notes; To briefly summarize, the Classified Appendix provided further information about the matters covered in parts of Durham's report – specifically, those relating to Hillary Clinton's plan to link Trump and Russia; the threat of foreign influence by a foreign government; and the Carter Page FISA application renewals. But the most material information covers the Clinton Plan, and provides further details on how that plan started, efforts by Clinton and her team to influence officials within the Obama Administration, and how the Clinton Campaign would use Crowdstrike to further their theory that the Russians hacked and leaked information from the Democratic National Convention (DNC) and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). The Smoking Gun(s)… 🚨SMOKING GUN: The declassified Durham Annex confirms Hillary Clinton personally approved the plan to frame Trump with Russian hacking US election claims — to 'distract from her missing emails' and 'demonize Trump.''Later, the FBI will put more oil on the fire.' — Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) July 31, 2025 And as Michael Shellenberger notes, the CIA believed Russian memos mentioning a Clinton plan to smear Trump as a Russian asset: 'The CIA prepared a written assessment of the authenticity and veracity of the above-mentioned intelligence. The CIA stated that it did not assess that the above [redacted] memoranda or [redacted] hacked U.S. communications, to be the product of Russian fabrications.' The newly declassified appendix to the Durham report is game-changing. It showed that the CIA believed Russian intelligence memos, which analyzed hacked emails and alleged a Clinton Plan to vilify Trump by linking him to Russia, were credible. "The CIA prepared a written… — Michael Shellenberger (@shellenberger) July 31, 2025 What's more, other memos reveal that the plan was to have Crowdstrike and 'ThreatConnect' spin narratives to the media in the absence of actual evidence of Trump-Russia collusion. Regarding proving-up the DNC/DCCC hack and leak – "In absence of direct evidence, Crowdstrike and ThreatConnect will supply the media" with will feed the info to the FBI and then the info "would then be disseminated through leading US publications." — Techno Fog (@Techno_Fog) July 31, 2025 Stay tuned, things are getting spicier… Also read: Trump Could Pull Up To 30% Of US Troops Currently In Europe
