Qualys, Inc. (QLYS): A Bull Case Theory

Yahoo

07-05-2025

We came across a bullish thesis on Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) on Substack by Na's Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls' thesis on QLYS. Qualys, Inc. (QLYS)'s share was trading at $126.82 as of May 5th. QLYS's trailing and forward P/E were 27.27 and 21.74 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) is a profitable, cloud-native cybersecurity company specializing in IT, security, and compliance solutions, with a foundation in vulnerability management (VM). Operating under a SaaS model, Qualys derives its recurring revenue from annual subscriptions tied to its integrated Qualys Enterprise TruRisk Platform. Over the past five years, the company has sustained high gross margins, consistent profitability, and robust free cash flow generation—hallmarks of a mature SaaS business. Despite these strengths, Qualys has experienced a noticeable slowdown in top-line growth, with a five-year revenue CAGR of 12.1% from 2019 to 2024, decelerating to 9.6% in 2024. This slowdown reflects saturation in the core VM market, rising competition, and the difficulty of sustaining high growth at scale. Nevertheless, the company has maintained GAAP operating margins consistently above 20% for much of this period and averaged FCF margins above 35% over the last three years, highlighting its ability to convert revenue into shareholder value, primarily through aggressive share repurchases.
While Qualys remains a leader in the VM space, competitive threats from specialized players like Tenable and Rapid7, alongside platform giants such as CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks, are eroding its market edge. To combat this, Qualys is investing in broadening its platform with offerings like TotalCloud CNAPP for cloud security and endpoint detection and response (EDR) solutions. These newer initiatives are strategically sound but still require significant traction to materially impact the company's growth profile. The challenge lies in convincing enterprises to adopt these newer modules in a crowded and rapidly evolving cybersecurity landscape dominated by larger, more diversified vendors. The TruRisk platform's integrated approach offers a potential differentiator, but success will depend on execution and product-market fit in these newer segments.
A DCF valuation that assumes growth stabilizes in the mid-single digits, while margins remain elevated, suggests an intrinsic value range of $115 to $145 per share. With shares trading around $126.75 as of late April 2025, Qualys appears fairly valued. The core investment case rests on its status as a stable, cash-generative business within cybersecurity—a sector that remains mission-critical even as growth moderates. While unlikely to deliver outsized returns from current levels, Qualys offers a compelling profile for investors seeking quality, profitability, and disciplined capital returns. Upside potential exists if newer product areas exceed expectations or strategic M&A reshapes the growth narrative. Conversely, failure to execute in these expansion areas or sustained market share loss could pressure valuation over time.