Tropics awakening? Hurricane forecasters say a storm is brewing in the Pacific.
In the eastern Pacific Ocean near Central America, meteorologists say the atmosphere is becoming more favorable for tropical development.
"An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico," the National Hurricane Center said in a tropical weather outlook on May 23.
"Conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of next week," the hurricane center said.
The center gives the system a 70% chance of development.
"Signs continue to point toward some slow tropical development off the Pacific coast of Central America and south of the southwestern coast of Mexico prior to the end of the month," AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.
"At this time, we believe a tropical feature may organize sometime from May 26 to May 30, especially the latter part of that period," he said.
If it becomes a named system, it would be called Alvin – the first named tropical cyclone anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere this year.
As a refresher, a tropical depression becomes a named storm when its sustained wind speed reaches 39 mph.
The average date for the first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific season is June 10, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"If a storm forms soon, it would be well ahead of the historical pace – and much earlier than last year's first storm. In 2024, Aletta didn't form until July 4, marking the latest start to an eastern Pacific hurricane season in the satellite era," said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
More: The Atlantic is primed to start spewing hurricanes, NOAA forecast says
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in a seasonal hurricane forecast released May 22, said that a below-average eastern Pacific hurricane season is most likely. An average season sees 15 named storms.
Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico and remnant moisture from the storms can affect the U.S. Southwest.
The eastern Pacific hurricane season could still bring notable indirect impacts to the southwestern United States, AccuWeather said.
Folks in California might remember the impact from Hilary in 2023: "While a repeat of the tactics of Hurricane Hilary from August 2023 is not anticipated, a heavy amount of tropical moisture could be pumped into the Southwest in addition to what is likely to be an active (drenching) North American monsoon season for New Mexico and Arizona," AccuWeather meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecasters say Tropical Storm Alvin may form in Pacific
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
44 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Chantal forms, forecast to reach Carolinas by Sunday
July 5 (UPI) -- Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the Atlantic on Saturday morning and is projected to reach South Carolina's coast on Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said. South and North Carolina are already encountering dangerous rip and surf conditions during the Fourth of July holiday weekend Chantal, the third named storm of the season, will be the first system to impact the United States this Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1. Landfall is predicted between Charleston and Myrtle Beach in South Carolina at 8 a.m. Sunday and will become a depression upon going inland in North Carolina on Sunday night, NHV said. "As tropical cyclones go, this storm will be relatively minor and short-lived," Frank Strait, severe weather liaison with the South Carolina State Climate Office, told the Island Packet. In the 2 p.m. EDT update, Chantal had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was traveling northward at 3 mph. In the 11 a.m. update, the winds were 40 mph. The storm became a tropical depression Friday night off the coasts of Northeast Florida and Georgia. Chantal was about 105 miles south-southeast of Charleston, S.C., and about 185 miles south-southwest of Wilmington, N.C. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the South Santee River, S.C., to Surf City, N.C. A tropical storm watch goes from Edisto Beach to South Santee River. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles east of the center. "Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin soon," NHC forecasters said. "The main steering features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region." Some strengthening is expected before Chantal reaches the coast, NHC said. A turn to the northeast is forecast by Sunday night, NHC said. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across South Carolina's coast Sunday morning. Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall in the Carolinas through Monday with 2 to 4 inches and local amounts of 6 inches. NHC said these rains could cause flash flooding "The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline," NHC said. Storm surge is forecast at 1-3 feet from South Santee River to Surf City and 1-2 feet from Edisto Beach to South Santee River. Also, isolated tornadoes are possible Saturday night into Sunday along South Carolina's eastern coast and much of North Carolina, NHC said. "This was a classic example of homegrown development, by which a tropical storm formed close to the southeast Atlantic coast and in an area where it is typical for July," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. In Wilmington, N.C., red flags were up at the beach. "The rip current advisory is going to be high for today and potentially tomorrow as well. If you see red flags, under no circumstances should you get into the water," Sam Proffitt, the Ocean Rescue Director at Wrightsville Beach, told WRAL-TV. "Although it might look calm out there and we don't have 8-foot swells coming in, rip currents can occur at any time, anywhere along the beach." There were 192 rip current drownings reported from 2000 to 2024 in North and South Carolina. "For most swimmers, the only thing that they notice is that they are unable to make it back to shore. They start swimming into shore and they notice that they are moving backwards, and that's typically where the panicking process starts, and the whole drowning process then begins," Proffitt said. Officials are also warning beachgoers about possible lightning in the area. In the Charleston area, WCIV-TV meteorologist Sonya Stevens said there is high surf and high rip current risk Saturday and water activities are discouraged, including boating. Andrea and Barry, the first two named systems of the Atlantic hurricane season, have dissipated.
Washington Post
an hour ago
- Washington Post
Tropical Storm Chantal forecast to bring heavy rain to the Carolinas
MIAMI — Tropical Storm Chantal formed off the southeast U.S. coast and was forecast to bring heavy rains to parts of the Carolinas on Saturday. Tropical storm warnings were issued for portions of the two states, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. At 5 p.m. EDT, the storm's center was located about 95 miles (150 kilometers) southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, and 165 miles (270 kilometers) south-southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina. Its maximum sustained winds were clocked at 45 mph (75 kph), and it was moving north at 7 mph (11 kph). The storm's center was expected to move across the coast of South Carolina late Saturday or early Sunday, with some some additional strengthening forecast before landfall. Heavy rain was forecast for the coastal plain of the Carolinas through Monday — total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches (5 to 10 centimeters), with local amounts up to 6 inches — threatening flash flooding.
2 hours ago
A look at some of the deadliest floods in the U.S. in the last 25 years
Flooding has caused an average of more than 125 deaths per year in the United States over the past few decades, according to the National Weather Service, and flash floods are the nation's top storm-related killer. Here's a look at some of the most deadly flooding nationwide in the past 25 years. Authorities are still assessing the deadly effects of heavy rains that caused devastating flash floods in Texas Hill Country, leaving at least 27 people dead and many others missing as frantic parents sought word about their daughters unaccounted for at a girls' camp near the Guadalupe River. Searchers used helicopters, boats and drones to look for victims and to rescue stranded people in trees and from camps isolated by washed-out roads. Hurricane Helene struck Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee and Virginia in September 2024. The storm caused about 250 deaths, according to the National Weather Service. Many of those who died in Helene fell victim to massive inland flooding, rather than high winds. Helene was the deadliest hurricane to hit the mainland U.S. since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The storm decimated remote towns throughout the Appalachians and left millions without power, cellular service and supplies. In North Carolina alone, Helene was responsible for 108 deaths, according to the state's Department of Health and Human Services. Raging floodwaters in eastern Kentucky in late July of 2022 led to 45 deaths, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys said Saturday. The floods destroyed homes and businesses and caused significant damage to schools, roads, bridges and water systems. The disaster robbed thousands of families of all their possessions. Twenty people were killed when creeks near the small Middle Tennessee town of Waverly overflowed after more than more than 17 inches (43 centimeters) of rain fell in the area in less than 24 hours in August 2021. Homes were washed off their foundations, cars were wrecked and businesses were demolished. The dead included twin babies who were swept from their father's arms. Hurricane Harvey barreled into Texas in August 2017 as a powerful Category 4 storm. Harvey hovered for days as it trudged inland, dumping several feet of rain on many Gulf Coast communities and the Houston area. Harvey killed at least 68 people, according to a National Hurricane Center report. All but three of the Harvey deaths were directly attributed to freshwater flooding, which damaged more than 300,000 structures and caused an estimated $125 billion in damage. A rainstorm that initially seemed like no big deal turned into a catastrophe in West Virginia, trapping dozens of people during the night and eventually leaving 23 people dead around the state. Superstorm Sandy was a a late fall freak combination of a hurricane and other storms that struck New York and surrounding areas in October 2012. Sandy killed 147 people, 72 in the eastern U.S., according to the National Hurricane Center. More than 110 deaths were attributed to drowning, Roys said. Heavy rainfall in several states, plus a larger-than-normal slow melt, led rivers in the Mississippi River Basin to swell and flood in 2011. Flash floods associated with these storms caused 24 deaths across Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana and Tennessee in April and May, according to the National Weather Service. Hurricane Ike struck the Southeast Texas Gulf Coast in September 2008, creating a storm surge as high as 20 feet (6 meters) in the island city of Galveston. Ike then poured more than 4 feet (1.2 meters) of rain on Houston, destroying thousands of cars and leaving hundreds of thousands of families with flood-damaged homes. In all, Ike was responsible for more than 100 deaths, many caused by flooding. Hurricane Katrina is the deadliest flood event in the U.S. in the past 25 years. The storm crashed into the Gulf Coast and caused devastating flooding when levees failed in New Orleans, where people had to be rescued by boat and helicopter from rooftops. The costliest storm in U.S. history, Katrina caused nearly 1,400 deaths and an estimated $200 billion in damages. Tropical Storm Allison caused 41 deaths, mostly attributed to flooding caused by 40 inches (101 centimeters) of rain that fell in Texas and Louisiana, Roys said. Allison remained a threat for days as its remnants lingered after making landfall in June 2001, causing major flooding in Houston.
