A top hurricane forecast is here, and it brings bad news: Danger is already brewing
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Get ready for another active Atlantic hurricane season, with as many as 17 storms expected, experts from Colorado State University said in their initial forecast released Thursday morning.
Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast that nine will become hurricanes. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, with seven of them spinning into hurricanes, based on weather records that date from 1991 to 2020.
Last year, 18 storms formed, including devastating Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
The expected busy season is due to the presence of unusually warm water in the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form, along with the predicted absence of an El Niño, which can inhibit hurricane formation.
Long considered among the most respected of hurricane forecasts, the Colorado State research team led by pioneering meteorologist William Gray was the first organization to issue seasonal hurricane forecasts back in 1984; this is the team's 42nd forecast. Gray died in 2016.
Colorado State University's outlook is one of several major forecasts for the hurricane season that will publish this spring. AccuWeather's forecast, which came out last week, calls for 13-18 named storms, of which 7-10 will be hurricanes.
Federal forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release their forecast in late May.
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Forecasters ponder sea-surface temperature patterns
"Two of the big factors that went into this forecast are the state of Atlantic and Pacific sea-surface temperatures," Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY this week. Both have a major impact on the intensity and severity of the hurricane season.
He said that overall, while the Atlantic Ocean is "thankfully not as warm as it was last year at this time," most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is still warmer than normal. He added that the current sea-surface temperature pattern is "pretty similar to what we see in Aprils prior to active seasons."
A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane's fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic also leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.
La Niña on the way out
"And in the Pacific, we have a La Niña that is likely on its last legs," Klotzbach told USA TODAY. La Niña, a natural cooling of ocean water in part of the Pacific, tends to boost Atlantic hurricane activity, while its opposite El Niño tends to suppress Atlantic storms.
Once La Niña fades, "the odds of El Niño appear low for this summer/fall. For example, NOAA's latest forecast only has a 13% chance of El Niño for August-October."
Thus, with neither La Niña or El Niño in charge, El Niño-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions appear to be most likely during the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season. This means that ocean water isn't particularly cool or warm.
"A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic and likely ENSO-neutral conditions typically leads to an above-normal hurricane season," Klotzbach said.
Will a major hurricane make landfall in the US in 2025?
Colorado State researchers said there's a 51% chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. The average, based on records from 1880 to 2020, is 43%.
A major hurricane has wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
The chances for a landfall are greater along the Gulf Coast (33%) than they are along the East Coast (26%).
When does Atlantic hurricane season 2025 begin?
Hurricane season officially begins June 1, but storms have formed in May in several recent years. The six-month season lasts until Nov. 30.
What happened in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?
With more than 400 fatalities, 2024 was the nation's deadliest hurricane season since 2005, said National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan. It was also the third-costliest on record, after 2017 and 2005.
With a U.S. death toll of at least 241, Hurricane Helene was the continental United States' deadliest single storm since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when about 1,400 people died.
Other deadly storms in 2024 included Hurricanes Beryl and Milton, each of which killed over 40 people in the United States.
In all, 18 named tropical storms and hurricanes formed in 2024, which is above the long-term average of 14. Of those 18 storms, 11 of them strengthened into hurricanes.
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