Storm tracker: System could bring heavy rain to Florida, Gulf Coast in coming days
Hurricane center forecasters said the trough is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms across portions of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters.
"The system is expected to move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday," the hurricane center said July 14, noting that environmental conditions appear "favorable enough to support some gradual development" of the system.
"Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week," hurricane forecasters said.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and will last through the end of November.
Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October.
Atlantic storm tracker
This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
How do hurricanes form?
Hurricanes are born in the tropics, above warm water. Clusters of thunderstorms can develop over the ocean when water temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, the clusters swirl into a storm known as a tropical wave or tropical depression.
A tropical depression becomes a named tropical storm once its sustained wind speeds reaches 39 miles per hour. When its winds reach 74 mph, the storm officially becomes a hurricane.
Prepare now for hurricanes
Delaying potentially life-saving preparations could mean waiting until it's too late. "Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period," NOAA recommends.
Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at Gdhauari@gannett.com.
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an hour ago
- Yahoo
Bryan Norcross: Disturbance continues to drench Florida, could develop in Gulf
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Invest 93L could strengthen into tropical depression. See spaghetti models, Florida impact
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Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 15: Satellite and radar data indicate the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida remains disorganized. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday, July 16. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week. Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent. Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent. Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm. Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane. Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90. Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models. Get ready for some heavy rain and localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week, even if a tropical system doesn't develop, according to the National Hurricane Center. "Heavy downpours are expected to continue across much of the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday night. Thunderstorms, infused with tropical moisture, could produce more than 4 inches of rain," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. Those at the Florida beaches will also experience rough surf and strong rip currents into Wednesday. ➤ How to set up emergency cellphone notifications for flash flood warnings and safety tips ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast "A more organized tropical system would bring a larger swath of heavy rain and a more widespread flooding risk," DaSilva added. AccuWeather forecasters Tuesday, July 15, were predicting a tropical depression will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana Thursday morning, July 17. "The farther south that the tropical rainstorm is able to travel over Florida, the longer it will have over the Gulf to strengthen before landfall," DaSilva said. It's not out the question that, in this scenario, the tropical system would have enough time to become a tropical storm. National Weather Service offices around Florida warned on X it was still too early to determine specifics about the track, strength or impacts from Invest 93L and advised residents to monitor forecasts for the latest updates. Pensacola, western Panhandle: Heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns by mid to late week with a high risk of rip currents expected by Thursday. Local impacts will depend on whether this system stays near the coast or out over the Gulf. Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Rain chances ramp up Wednesday and Thursday regardless of development Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week. Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Low pressure off of the Florida East Coast will move onshore later this morning/early afternoon and track west across the peninsula. Precipitation along the coast this morning will spread inland with heavy rain. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday expected, with locally higher amounts of 4-plus inches in spots that receive heavy rainfall multiple days in a row. West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region again today as the tropical disturbance begins to cross the Florida Peninsula. An isolated severe storm or two will be possible. An isolated severe storm is possible, along with strong wind gusts. Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: More showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region today, but mainly during this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall with flooding in urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas possible, along with gusty winds up to 50 mph An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages: Tropical Storm Andrea: formed June 24. Average start date: June 20 Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17 Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3. Next up, Dexter: Average state date: Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11. Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Andrea (June 24) Barry (June 29) Chantal (July 5) Dexter: DEHK-ster Erin: AIR-rin Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include: Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin. To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi. Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated: : for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. : for storms in the Northwest Pacific. : for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean. We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This story has been updated to include new information. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane center tracks Invest 93L: Spaghetti models; Florida forecast
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an hour ago
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Tropical Storm Dexter: Live Tracker as Chances of Forming Quadruple
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Chances that Tropical Storm Dexter will form within the next 48 hours have quadrupled since a forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) on Monday. As the storm takes shape, Florida can expect heavy rainfall. Even if the storm doesn't form, the heavy rain will move across the Sunshine State and into the Gulf, where it will impact coastal states later this week. As of Tuesday around noon Eastern time, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek the storm was moving inland and bringing "really, really heavy rain." Why It Matters The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1. The last storm to form was Tropical Storm Chantal earlier this month. NHC meteorologists are currently monitoring a low-pressure system east of Florida that has a 40 percent chance of becoming tropical within the next 48 hours. Should it form, the storm will be named Dexter. The development comes as meteorologists predicted an above-average hurricane season this year for the Atlantic. A map from the NHC shows there is a 40 percent chance Tropical Storm Dexter will form within 48 hours. A map from the NHC shows there is a 40 percent chance Tropical Storm Dexter will form within 48 hours. National Hurricane Center What To Know On Monday, the NHC said there was a 10 percent chance the storm would form within the next two days. By that afternoon, the chance had increased to 20 percent. By Tuesday morning, the chances increased again to 40 percent. The NHC cautioned that even if it doesn't form, Florida can expect some impact, such as heavy rain and flash floods. Weather Radar Animated weather maps from showed a cluster of storms in Florida near the state's Atlantic coast. As of Tuesday afternoon, the storms have not yet organized into a tropical system. DaSilva told Newsweek he doubts the storm will strengthen while it moves over land. Wind Despite the lack of organization, some strong winds are still expected with the storms. Sustained winds of around 25 mph were recorded in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of Florida. Winds were gusting around 36 mph. A tropical storm has sustained winds between 39 and 73 mph. A tropical storm becomes a Category 1 hurricane once sustained winds hit 74 mph. Rain Meteorologists warned that the biggest impact from the storm will be heavy rain. Over the next three days, forecasts that Central Florida could receive around 2 inches of rain. The highest rainfall amounts will be coastal Louisiana, which could receive up to 4 inches. What People Are Saying The NHC, in a forecast: "This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf." AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, in an AccuWeather report: "Heavy downpours are expected to continue across much of the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday night. Thunderstorms, infused with tropical moisture, could produce more than 4 inches of rain." What Happens Next Heavy rain is expected to cause flash flooding in Florida through mid-week, the NHC forecast said. Then, flash flooding and heavy rain will hit the Gulf Coast later this week.
