Invest 93L could strengthen into tropical depression. See spaghetti models, Florida impact
Forecasters have been watching the system — now designated as Invest 93L — for several days. As you slept, chances for development continued to tick up and now stand at 40% over the next 48 hours.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected over portions of Florida, which could bring localized flash flooding through mid-week.
Later in the week, heavy rainfall could shift into the north-central Gulf Coast.
Historically, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives Aug. 15. The last two named storms of the season — Barry and Chantal — developed earlier than normal.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m. July 15:
Satellite and radar data indicate the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low pressure located just offshore of the east coast of Florida remains disorganized.
This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and then reach the northeastern Gulf by Wednesday, July 16.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf.Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week.
Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast during the middle to latter portions of this week.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 40 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Short for investigation, the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter: L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
Get ready for some heavy rain and localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through mid-week, even if a tropical system doesn't develop, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"Heavy downpours are expected to continue across much of the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday night. Thunderstorms, infused with tropical moisture, could produce more than 4 inches of rain," said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Those at the Florida beaches will also experience rough surf and strong rip currents into Wednesday.
➤ How to set up emergency cellphone notifications for flash flood warnings and safety tips
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
"A more organized tropical system would bring a larger swath of heavy rain and a more widespread flooding risk," DaSilva added.
AccuWeather forecasters Tuesday, July 15, were predicting a tropical depression will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana Thursday morning, July 17.
"The farther south that the tropical rainstorm is able to travel over Florida, the longer it will have over the Gulf to strengthen before landfall," DaSilva said. It's not out the question that, in this scenario, the tropical system would have enough time to become a tropical storm.
National Weather Service offices around Florida warned on X it was still too early to determine specifics about the track, strength or impacts from Invest 93L and advised residents to monitor forecasts for the latest updates.
Pensacola, western Panhandle: Heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns by mid to late week with a high risk of rip currents expected by Thursday. Local impacts will depend on whether this system stays near the coast or out over the Gulf.
Tallahassee, central Panhandle: Rain chances ramp up Wednesday and Thursday regardless of development
Jacksonville, North/Northeast Florida: Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
Daytona Beach to Stuart, East/Central Florida: Low pressure off of the Florida East Coast will move onshore later this morning/early afternoon and track west across the peninsula. Precipitation along the coast this morning will spread inland with heavy rain. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Wednesday expected, with locally higher amounts of 4-plus inches in spots that receive heavy rainfall multiple days in a row.
West Palm Beach to Naples, South/Southwest Florida: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region again today as the tropical disturbance begins to cross the Florida Peninsula. An isolated severe storm or two will be possible. An isolated severe storm is possible, along with strong wind gusts.
Fort Myers to Sarasota, West/Southwest Florida: More showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region today, but mainly during this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall with flooding in urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas possible, along with gusty winds up to 50 mph
An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Here's when this year's named storms have developed, compared to historical averages:
Tropical Storm Andrea: formed June 24. Average start date: June 20
Tropical Storm Barry: formed June 29. Average start date: July 17
Tropical Storm Chantal: formed July 5. Average start date: Aug. 3.
Next up, Dexter: Average state date: Aug. 15, with the average first hurricane forming Aug. 11.
Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them:
Andrea (June 24)
Barry (June 29)
Chantal (July 5)
Dexter: DEHK-ster
Erin: AIR-rin
Fernand: fair-NAHN
Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL
Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh
Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah
Jerry: JEHR-ee
Karen: KAIR-ren
Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh
Melissa: meh-LIH-suh
Nestor: NES-tor
Olga: OAL-guh
Pablo: PAHB-lo
Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh
Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en
Tanya: TAHN-yuh
Van: van
Wendy: WEN-dee
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Tropical cyclone is the generic term used by the National Weather Service, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center for any tropical system, even if it's in the tropical Atlantic basin.
To be more precise, a tropical cyclone is a "rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and has closed, low-level circulation," NOAA sadi.
Once maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, what it is called is determined by where it originated:
: for storms in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.
: for storms in the Northwest Pacific.
: for storms in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
This story has been updated to include new information.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane center tracks Invest 93L: Spaghetti models; Florida forecast
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Axios
4 hours ago
- Axios
Rain forecast improves for New Orleans: "You got lucky"
The forecast has improved for New Orleans, with less rain expected from the tropical system in the Gulf, the National Weather Service says. Why it matters: It's good news for a region with flood-prone streets and neighborhoods. The big picture: As of 2pm Thursday, most rain bands from Invest 93L have stayed along Louisiana's coast, with only a few showers reaching the city. "You got lucky," said NWS meteorologist Mike Efferson. Pierre Part, a town about 1.5 hours west of the city, had nearly 11 inches of rain as of 2pm Thursday, he said. New Orleans East and the West Bank had hot spots with more than 4 inches of rain, he said, but most places in the city had less than 2 inches as of Thursday afternoon. Between the lines: No street flooding was reported as of Thursday afternoon in New Orleans or Jefferson Parish, according to parish officials and Streetwise. Gov. Jeff Landry canceled his public update Thursday, citing the improved forecast. Zoom in: New Orleans is now only supposed to get about 1.5 to 2 inches through Saturday. The totals for worst-case scenario have also dropped to 4-6 inches from the previous forecast of 8-10 inches, NWS said Thursday. All of Southeast Louisiana remains under a flood watch until 1am Saturday. Zoom out: Invest 93L was moving inland over Southeast Louisiana as of 1pm Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said. What's next: Government buildings in New Orleans are expected to reopen Friday. Jefferson Parish's buildings remained open all week.
Yahoo
5 hours ago
- Yahoo
Severe weather in tropical storm's wake triggers North Carolina state of emergency
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — North Carolina can seek federal funding to help its overloaded response efforts to Tropical Storm Chantal, which killed at least six people and left damage from flooding in its wake, as Gov. Josh Stein announced a state of emergency Thursday. A one-two punch from Chantal followed by severe weather in the state's center has 'overwhelmed the response and recovery efforts of local governments,' according to Stein's executive order. Some rivers reached record-breaking levels from the storm, including the Eno River in Durham, one of several cities where some residents lost access to safe drinking water because of damage to the water system. In some places, the storm dumped as much as 9 to 12 inches of rain, according to the governor's office. Chantal hit at the end of the July Fourth weekend, and several days of severe weather plowed through as people were still picking up the pieces from damage caused by the tropical storm's remnants. The emergency declaration, which took effect Wednesday, jumpstarts the process for North Carolina to seek federal recovery assistance if needed. It covers 13 counties in the state's center, some of which are home to populous cities like Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill. Local law enforcement agencies have confirmed at least six deaths from the storm. Businesses were wrecked and many residents were displaced from their homes after emergency responders rescued them from flooding. A 58-year-old woman called 911 on her way to work after her SUV got caught in floodwaters, but the call disconnected and she was later found dead a little ways from her unoccupied vehicle, according to the Orange County Sheriff's Office. Rescuers searched for days in Chatham County only to find two missing canoers had died, the county sheriff's office said, while another woman died when floodwaters swept her vehicle off the road, the State Highway Patrol said. Two people died in Alamance County, including a missing 71-year-old man found dead inside his vehicle covered in flowing water, the sheriff's office said. The Graham County Police Department said a missing 23-year-old woman was found dead inside a submerged vehicle. Many people were also rescued during the storm. In one neighborhood north of Durham, the city's fire department said it did more than 80 water rescues amid the flooding. The fire department in Chapel Hill rescued more than 50 people while teaming up with neighboring agencies, mostly near apartments, officials said. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Yahoo
Invest 93L remains disorganized as it prepares to move west across Louisiana
The tropical disturbance, Invest 93L, meteorologists have been tracking across Florida and the Gulf over the past week has now set its sights on southern Louisiana, but will continue to bring rain and the threat of localized flooding to the Florida Panhandle through Saturday. Pensacola saw just above 1.5 inches of rain Wednesday evening as the storm made its way across the Gulf parallel to the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest data from the Pensacola International Airport. The National Weather Service received no storm reports from the area. Invest 93L became disorganized while crossing the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday, as portions were spread as far north as Tallahassee and deeper south, toward the Gulf's warmer waters, AccuWeather reported. Chances that the disturbance will form a tropical depression were lowered to 30% on Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm's poorly defined center was reported just east of New Orleans on Thursday morning. Most of the associated thunderstorms were over the Gulf or right along the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. Pensacola will continue to see rain and storm activity through Saturday due to the storm's size, but the brunt of its impact is behind us. Where is Invest 93L headed next? The tropical rainstorm is locked onto southern Louisiana, where weak steering breezes will guide it westward on Thursday, according to AccuWeather. Further development is unlikely, but there's still a brief window where the storm could see a bit more organization as it moves onshore. It will be capable of producing heavy rains that could trigger flash flooding regardless of how it organizes, however. AccuWeather says that the storm could be driven either more westward or northward, allowing for downpours that could reach close to Houston or more toward the Mississippi Delta and lower valley region. On Friday, the storm is expected to drift northward, where it will expand over the lower and middle portions of the Mississippi Valley. Where is Invest 93L now? Invest 93L is spread out over the northern Gulf, just east of New Orleans, Louisiana, and south of Mississippi. What is the chance Invest 93L strengthens? Low, according to the National Hurricane Center. Some development could occur before the system moves westward over Louisiana later Thursday or Thursday night, but the chances that it strengthens into a tropical depression are 30%. What are the potential impacts from Invest 93L? Showers and thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will continue to impact the western Florida Panhandle through Saturday, but don't expect as much rain as Wednesday. Louisiana and the Mississippi Valley will see heavy rainfall that could trigger localized flash flooding through Friday. How far those showers reach will depend on Invest 93L's path as it moves onshore Thursday. Invest 93L spaghetti models and path Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. Florida weather radar for July 17, 2025 This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Pensacola to see rain, storm activity from Invest 93L through Saturday Solve the daily Crossword
