Gold price outlook: Fed policy, July 9 tariff deadline and data cues may swing yellow metal; analysts see long-term bullish case
'Traders are expected to stay cautious ahead of any major policy cues or geopolitical developments, with these factors likely to influence the near-term trajectory of gold prices,' analysts told PTI.
The 90-day suspension of Trump-era tariffs on imports from several countries, including India, ends on July 9. If not extended, the suspension's expiry could revive a 26 per cent additional duty on Indian goods entering the US, a move that could rattle markets.
Central bank policy, trade signals in spotlight
According to Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG, Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, the immediate market focus will be on any rate cut commentary from the US Federal Reserve, outcomes from US trade negotiations, and fresh macroeconomic data from key economies — all of which could weigh heavily on gold in the short term, the agency reported.
Investors are also eyeing the minutes of the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting due this week, which may provide more clarity on the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts.
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On the MCX, gold futures for August delivery rose by Rs 1,563, or 1.61 per cent, last week.
Dollar strength may cap gains, but volatility expected
In the global market, gold is currently trading around $3,345 per ounce. However, solid US macroeconomic data has tempered expectations of a July interest rate cut, said N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities Desk and CRM at Ventura.
'Despite some corrective rallies, the short-term outlook favours consolidation and corrective upward movements, followed by a likely continuation of the broader downward trend,' Ramaswamy noted.
At the same time, he said that growing fiscal deficit concerns in the US and the potential return of Trump tariffs could drive fresh volatility and revive safe-haven demand for the yellow metal.
Dollar weakness, ETF inflows and central bank buying support bullish case
Prathamesh Mallya, DVP, Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies at Angel One, said a weakening US dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions have been key drivers of gold prices in both 2024 and 2025.
'Dollar weakness has been a key part of gold prices rising in 2024 as well as in 2025.
This trend will continue for the rest of the year,' said Mallya.
According to Mer, central banks added a net 20 tonnes of gold to global reserves in May, reinforcing the precious metal's appeal as a long-term hedge. He also highlighted strong inflows from retail and institutional investors via ETFs as supportive of a bullish outlook.
In the first half of 2025, gold has outperformed all major asset classes, clocking gains of nearly 25 per cent, Mer added.
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