Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and predictions

USA Today

01-04-2025

The Pittsburgh Pirates (1-4) face the Tampa Bay Rays (3-1) for the second game of a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from George M. Steinbrenner Field is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 1-0 after 6-1 win Monday.
The Pirates scored just 1 run on 4 hits and struck out 10 times Monday. They are hitting just .174 on the young season, which ranks 27th in baseball. They are leading MLB with 17 steals, though. OF Oneil Cruz has 5 of them in just 15 at-bats. The Pirates are turning to No. 3 prospect (No. 78 overall) RHP Tom Harrington. The 23-year-old will make his major league debut.
The Rays are 3-1 in their temporary home ballpark that is actually the New York Yankees' spring training field. They have scored 6 runs in consecutive games as OF Jake Mangum went 4-for-4 with 2 RBIs and 2 steals Monday. The Rays are sixth in baseball with a .292 BA and third with a 2.00 ERA.
Pirates at Rays projected starters
RHP Tom Harrington vs. RHP Shane Baz
Harrington makes his major league debut. He went 5-1 with a 3.33 ERA in 8 starts at Triple-A Indianapolis last year. He had a 0.93 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 46 IP at Triple-A.
He went 2-2 with a 2.24 ERA in 12 starts (13 games) at Double-A Akron before his promotion to Triple-A
He went 14-9 with a 3.09 ERA and 261 K's in 244 2/3 minor league innings
He features a fastball (93-95 mph), curveball, sweeper, splitter and changeup and he throws a lot of strikes
Baz makes his first start of the season. He went 4-3 with a 3.06 ERA in 14 starts last year. He had a 1.06 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 79 1/3 IP.
Was 1-0 with a 9.64 ERA in 9 1/3 IP during spring training; had 5 BB and 4 K while allowing a .342 batting average
He has not faced Pittsburgh in his career
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Pirates at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:16 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML) : Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
: Pirates +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Rays -175 (bet $175 to win $100) Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Pirates +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+125)
: Pirates +1.5 (-150) | Rays -1.5 (+125) Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -102 | U: -118)
Pirates at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 5, Pirates 2
This is a rough matchup for Harrington in his debut. The Rays are sixth (.292) in BA and seventh (.361) in OBP. They don't hit for a lot of power, but they don't have to – especially against a strike-thrower without wipeout stuff.
I love the Rays here, but I really don't want to pay the -175.
Instead, you could SGP RAYS + RAYS OVER 3.5 TOTAL RUNS (-115) at a much better price. I'm also going with the run line, though, so take your pick here.
The Rays are top-5 in baseball in ERA (2.00, third), WHIP (0.81, second), K/9 (10.25, fourth) and homers allowed (1, first). The Pirates can run, but they're having trouble getting on base, and as the old adage goes: You can't steal first base.
Take the RAYS -1.5 (+125) if you opted against the previous SGP option.
It's expected to be clear, 81 degrees and feature a light, 6-mph breeze headed out to right. The Pirates are 2-3 O/U thus far, and the Rays are 1-3 O/U.
If this forecasts as I expect it to, the UNDER 9 (-118) is safe here.
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