France faces another tough wheat export year despite better crop
Sparse overseas demand could lead France to stock hefty amounts of wheat or offload more crop in livestock feed markets. Either outcome could keep prices below production costs, a trend that has fueled farmer protests in the past year.
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday projected French soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2025/26 at a relatively modest 7.5 million metric tons, contributing to a forecast 21-year high for end-of-season stocks.
Sales to Algeria and China, among France's biggest wheat buyers in recent years, stalled last season due to a diplomatic fallout between Paris and Algiers and a general drop in Chinese imports amid hefty domestic supply.
A smaller than normal 2024 French crop meant steady demand from Morocco and West Africa, plus sporadic sales to Egypt and Thailand, absorbed last season's surplus. But that may no longer be enough.
'The harsh reality is that France has a huge challenge to reach a 7.5 million ton export program,' Rory Deverell, owner of Black Silo Commodity Consulting, said.
A price rise in Russia amid tight availability in the world's biggest wheat supplier may offer only brief respite, with Russian and other Black Sea region producers expected to sweep up near-term demand, as shown by this week's 1 million ton purchase by Algeria.
'Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria are likely to dominate wheat exports in coming months,' a German trader said. 'The west EU faces the threat of being only a niche wheat exporter.'
Like France, Germany and Poland may struggle too, with overall EU exports again set to be bolstered by Black Sea neighbors Romania and Bulgaria.
A rally in the euro against the dollar this year, a repercussion of US President Donald Trump's policies, represents another export headwind.
Lower-priced feed markets may provide opportunities for western European wheat, especially if the harvest struggles to meet milling specifications, with traders reporting talk of some low protein levels plus the risk that this week's rain might damage the quality of unharvested wheat.
That could mean exports to distant destinations in southeast Asia, or shipments within the EU, with the return of EU quotas on Ukrainian wheat reducing competition for feed wheat inside the bloc.
But traders say a bumper harvest in Spain will also curb demand from the traditionally major EU buyer, while wheat will face feed competition from maize as well. FranceAgriMer anticipates stable French intra-EU exports versus last season.
'It is hard to see where west EU wheat could be sold,' another German trader said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Arab News
14 hours ago
- Arab News
Trump arrives in Scotland for golf and bilateral talks as EU trade deal nears
EDINBURGH/LONDON: US President Donald Trump, dogged by questions about his ties to disgraced financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, arrived in Scotland on Friday for some golf and bilateral talks that could yield a trade deal with the European Union. Trump told reporters upon his arrival that he will visit his two golf properties in Scotland and meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whom he called a 'highly respected woman.' As hundreds of onlookers cheered his arrival, Trump repeated his earlier comment about a 50-50 chance of securing a deal with the EU, adding it would be his administration's biggest trade agreement thus far, if it came together. However, he said there were still 'sticking points' with Brussels on 'maybe 20 different things.' Trump said his meeting with Starmer would be more of a celebration of the trade deal already reached than continued work on it, adding, 'It's a great deal for both.' Before he left Washington, Trump said his administration was working hard on a possible trade deal with the EU, and Brussels was keen to make a deal. Von der Leyen said later she would meet Trump in Scotland on Sunday. EU diplomats say a deal could result in a 15 percent tariff on EU goods, mirroring a framework accord with Japan reached this week and half of the 30 percent Trump is threatening to impose by August 1. Trump has sought to reorder the global economy after imposing a 10 percent tariff on nearly all trading partners in April and threatening sharply higher rates for many countries to kick in a week from now. Trump says the moves will reduce the US trade deficit and bring in extra revenue, but economists warn the new trade policies could drive up inflation. Trump, facing the biggest domestic political crisis of his second term, expressed frustration about ongoing questions about his administration's handling of investigative files related to Epstein's criminal charges and his 2019 death in prison. 'You make it a very big thing over something that's not a big thing,' Trump told reporters in Scotland, urging them to focus on other prominent Americans with ties to Epstein, including former President Bill Clinton. 'Talk about Clinton. Talk about the former president of Harvard. Talk about all of his friends. Talk about the hedge fund guys that were with him all the time. Don't talk about Trump,' he said. 'What you should be talking about is the fact that we have the greatest six months in the history of a presidency.' The Epstein issue has caused a rare breach with some of Trump's most loyal Make America Great Again supporters, and majorities of Americans and Trump's Republicans say they believe the government is hiding details on the case, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. White House officials are hoping the controversy dies down while Trump is abroad, two people familiar with the matter said. Trump will stay at his Turnberry property on Scotland's west coast this weekend, before traveling on Monday to a golf property in Aberdeen, where he will open a second 18-hole course named in honor of his mother, Mary Anne MacLeod. MacLeod was born and raised on a Scottish island before emigrating to the US As he left the White House, Trump said he looked forward to meeting both Starmer and Scottish leader John Swinney, who had publicly backed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election. The trip gives Trump and Starmer a chance to deepen their already warm ties, with key issues on the agenda to include ending Russia's war in Ukraine, British and US sources said. The deteriorating situation in Gaza is also likely to come up. Starmer on Thursday said he would hold an emergency call with France and Germany over what he called the 'unspeakable and indefensible' suffering and starvation being reported there, and called on Israel to allow aid to enter the Palestinian enclave. Gaza health authorities say more than 100 people have died from starvation, most in recent weeks. Human rights groups have said mass starvation is spreading even as tons of food and other supplies sit untouched just outside the territory. Since being elected last year, Starmer has prioritized good relations with Trump, stressing the importance of Britain's defense and security alliance with the US, while working to clinch the first tariff-reduction deal with the US in May. The framework agreement reaffirmed quotas and tariff rates on British automobiles and eliminated tariffs on the UK's aerospace sector, but left steel tariffs in place. Starmer is expected to press for lower steel tariffs, but sources close to the matter said it was unclear if any breakthrough was possible during Trump's visit. Trump has described Scotland as a 'very special place' and made a similar trip there in 2016 during his earlier run for the presidency, but he will not necessarily get a warm welcome. About 70 percent of Scots have an unfavorable opinion of Trump, while 18 percent have a favorable opinion, an Ipsos poll in March found. Scottish police are girding for protests on Saturday in both Aberdeen and in Edinburgh, the country's capital. Trump will return to Britain from September 17-19 for a state visit hosted by King Charles. It will make Trump the first world leader in modern times to undertake two state visits to Britain. The late Queen Elizabeth hosted him at Buckingham Palace for a three-day state visit in June 2019.
Arab News
a day ago
- Arab News
Gold falls on firmer US dollar and rising trade optimism
BENGALURU: Gold prices fell on Friday, pressured by a recovery in the US dollar and optimism over progress in trade talks between the US and the EU. Spot gold was down 0.5 percent at $3,350.08 per ounce, as of 11:20 a.m. Saudi time. US gold futures fell 0.6 percent to $3,351.70. The US dollar index rebounded from more than a two-week low, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers, while benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields rose. A resurgence in risk appetite driven by optimism over potential tariff negotiations, and better-than-expected jobless claims reinforcing the view that the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates, is pressuring gold, said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades. 'There is an element of uncertainty that still lingers ... with a strong support around $3,300, I see the potential for gold prices to rise should new episodes of volatility be triggered,' he said. The European Commission said on Thursday a negotiated trade solution with the US is within reach — while EU members voted to approve counter-tariffs on €93 billion euros ($109 billion) of US goods in case the talks collapse. Data showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell to a three-month low last week, pointing to stable labor market conditions. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump pressed Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates in a tense visit to the US central bank on Thursday, less than a week before the next rate-setting meeting where policymakers are expected to hold interest rates steady. Markets are pricing in a potential rate cut in September. Gold typically performs well during periods of uncertainty and in low-interest-rate environments. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.5 percent to $38.90 per ounce, but was on track for a weekly gain, up about 1.9 percent so far. Platinum lost 0.6 percent to $1,400.02 and palladium slipped 0.7 percent to $1,219.20.
Arab News
a day ago
- Arab News
As political protests stir, Pakistan PM reassures EU on human rights linked to GSP+
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday held a meeting with outgoing European Union (EU) Ambassador Riina Kionka and discussed with her the EU's Generalized Scheme of Preference Plus (GSP+) framework and "domestic political developments," Sharif's office said. The scheme grants beneficiary countries' exports duty-free access to the European market in exchange for voluntarily agreeing to implement 27 international core conventions, including those on human and civil rights. Sharif's office did not elaborate on which political developments they discussed, but the development comes after the announcement of an anti-government protest movement by jailed former premier Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. The PTI recently announced the protest drive to secure the release of Khan, who has been in jail for nearly two years on a slew of charges. The party has staged several protests in recent years demanding an audit of Feb. 2024 general election along with Khan's release, saying the polls had been rigged. Pakistani authorities deny the allegations and accuse the PTI of attempting to disrupt its efforts to achieve sustainable economic growth. The EU last year raised also concerns over the sentencing of PTI activists by Pakistani military courts over attacks on government and military installations in May 2023, noting that Islamabad had agreed to effectively implement 27 core conventions, including the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), to continue benefitting from the GSP+ scheme. "The Prime Minister underscored the significance of EU as one of Pakistan's largest trading partners and reaffirmed the Government's commitment to the GSP Plus scheme, which had proved to be mutually beneficial for both sides," Sharif's office said. The EU is one of Pakistan's most important trading partners, accounting for 12.4% of Pakistan's total trade in 2024, while Pakistan was the EU's 48th largest trading partner in goods, accounting for 0.2% of EU trade, according to official EU data. Bilateral trade in goods between the EU and Pakistan represented €12 billion in 2024 (with a deficit for the EU of €4.6 billion). During the meeting, Ambassador Kionka thanked PM Sharif for the support she had received during her stay in Pakistan. "The EU was committed to strengthening its cooperation with Pakistan," she was quoted as saying. PM Sharif conveyed his good wishes for EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and said that he looked forward to meeting her at a convenient opportunity in the coming days.
