Trump 2.0's China playbook ruffles partners. Outreach to Pakistan, cold-shoulder to Taiwan during China talks raise concerns

Time of India

3 hours ago

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Is there a shift in Trump's China policy? While it's too early to make that call, there are worrying indications that point to a more accommodating Trump trade posture on China even if it means reversing his own security decisions. For India, the Quad and most of the Indo-Pacific, that's worrying as it's accompanied by no exception for allies or partners on the tariff front.To begin with, he is cold-shouldering Taiwan while warming up to China's all-weather friend Pakistan. In June, Trump hosted Pakistan Army Chief Gen Asim Munir in Washington, but in the same month, his administration apparently cancelled a planned defence dialogue with Taiwan as trade talks with China were on. Just recently, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te called off a trip to South America because US did not allow him a stopover, though Taiwan sought to cover for the embarrassment by citing other pressing engagements as reasons.The most glaring, one on which there is considerable discomfort within his own camp, is removing restrictions on Nvidia to resume selling of H20 chips to China for AI development. Trump had imposed these restrictions in April following China's surprise advancement with DeepSeek. It emerged that the H20 chips, which were customised for China and meant to be slightly less advanced than the high-end H100 Nvidia chips for AI, were in effect not that inferior.On July 28, a bunch of former security officials, including Matt Pottinger, former Deputy NSA in Trump 1.0, wrote to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick urging him to reconsider the decision. The letter stated that H20 was a "potent accelerator" of China's AI capabilities and was "not an outdated chip". It warned that H20 outperforms the H100 in "inference tasks" and should not be exported.The other worry highlighted in the letter was that H20 will never be restricted to just the civilian domain and will support China's military purposes under its "military-civil fusion strategy". But it appears the call was made during a meeting between Trump and Nvidia at an expensive Mar-a-Lago dinner.Even China has found this US backing-off difficult to digest. Its Cyberspace Administration summoned Nvidia officials with questions on whether the H20s have a backdoor that enables unauthorized access and surveillance. The US company has denied it, though Beijing is likely to carry out its own probe.For all the tough talk on China, these are significant concessions from Trump, some through individual deals and others due to the political pressures arising from squeezing Chinese supply chains, especially on rare earths and magnets, without credible alternatives.These actions, however, sit oddly with his MAGA politics and Trump's core support base. And so, indications are that they are going ahead with their own play in the US Congress. Amid all the cautiousness in White House on China, a bipartisan bill called the Uyghur Genocide Accountability and Sanctions Act of 2025 was moved recently in the US Congress.Interestingly, the legislation was moved by the Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, who chairs the Congressional-Executive Commission on China and co-sponsored by Republican Representative John Moolenaar, who heads the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party. Several Democratic Congressmen have supported the legislation, which seeks to expand existing sanctions, imposes visa bans and restricts U.S. government contracts linked to forced labour.In many ways, the limits of Trump's transactional approach have hit the Chinese wall. Given China's dominance in trade and supply chains, the plan was always to adopt a coordinated strategy with allies and partners to develop alternatives. Because for now, China literally holds the chips.Instead, the Trump Administration has ended up in a bargaining match with Beijing, which might get some purchase in the short term, but has put its main partners in building and executing the long-term counter China strategy in question - namely Taiwan and the Quad.