Good neighbours - Egypt - Al-Ahram Weekly

Al-Ahram Weekly

a day ago

Addressing the 51st session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), on 21 June, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had warned of the danger of the conflict between Israel and Iran. 'Our region cannot afford more war and instability,' he said. Instead of choosing to live side-by-side in peace with a sovereign and independent state within the 1967 borders, Israel has unfortunately chosen to engulf the entire region in war. 'It is obvious that these aggressive acts, which violate international law, serve the strategic destabilisation policy that Israel is pursuing in the region… Those who assume they can establish their security by drowning the region in fire, conflict, chaos and tears are dreaming. Israel cannot ensure its security by threatening the security of its neighbours.'
The Turkish president simultaneously stressed Iran's right to defend itself. 'The measures Iran has been taking in the face of Israel's state terror are totally natural, legitimate and legal… We have no doubt that the Iranian people, with their thousands of years of history, their resilience against challenges, and their strong statecraft, will overcome these difficult days.'
Ankara condemned the unprovoked Israeli war on Iran from the outset, describing it as a 'blatant provocation' in violation of international law. 'The international community must put an end to Israel's banditry, which threatens global and regional stability,' Erdoğan tweeted on X on 13 June.
Although the Turkish Defence Ministry denied reports that Israeli warplanes violated Turkish airspace on the first day of the war, it nevertheless issued a stern warning against any encroachments. Turkey had ramped up its air defence systems and was prepared for all possible scenarios, Turkish Defence Ministry officials said.
Ankara had offered to mediate between Tehran and Washington, in the hope that the latter will pressure Israel to cease its aggression. Tel Aviv rejected a Turkish diplomatic intervention, ostensibly because Ankara took a stance in support of Tehran. In fact, President Erdoğan went further, expressing his long-standing aversion to the Israeli leadership. 'Netanyahu has long since surpassed the tyrant Hitler in the crime of genocide,' he said in a Justice and Development Party (AKP) group meeting last week.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar lashed out against Erdoğan in response. 'Erdoğan, who holds the record for suppressing freedoms and citizens' rights, as well as for oppressing the opposition in his own country, dares to preach to others,' he fumed on X.
Earlier that day, in a conversation with the Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, on events in the Middle East, Erdoğan described Netanyahu as 'the greatest threat to the region's security.'
Rhetoric aside, Turkey was keen to de-escalate the conflict for fear of the devastating repercussions a protracted wider conflict would have on Turkish national interests. Turkey has an approximately 530 km long border with Iran and it is aware that Israel-US designs to instigate regime change or, worse, long-term civil strife and instability in Iran would spill over into Turkey, as was the case with Syria. Iran, like Iraq and Syria, has large, predominantly Kurdish regions located in the north, adjacent to both Iraq and Turkey. Ankara feared a breakdown in the central Iranian state would open up opportunities for Iranian Kurdish nationalist movements to push for independence or at least autonomy, as the Kurdish regions in Iraq and northeastern Syria have done. This in turn might have inspired transnational aspirations among Turkey's large Kurdish community in southeastern Anatolia.
Turkey also feared another refugee crisis. Upheaval in Iran could have driven thousands of Iranians to attempt to cross into Turkey, a prospect heightened by Netanyahu's call to Iranians – echoed by Trump – to evacuate Tehran. Already there have been unconfirmed reports of hundreds of Iranians trying to enter Turkey through the Kapıköy-Razi and the Gürbulak-Bazargan crossings. Other reports indicate a surge in the demand for the Turkish lira. Another wave of refugees could be politically explosive for the Erdoğan government, given the deep sensitivities surrounding Syrian refugees, a hot button issue that has been associated with declining popularity ratings of both the AKP and Erdoğan.
Israeli-US engineered anarchy in Iran would also impact Iranian natural gas exports to Turkey. Iran is one of Turkey's most important energy suppliers, meeting about 17.1 per cent of Turkey's energy needs. Under a long-term supply agreement set to expire in July 2026, Iran pumps an average of 9.6 billion cubic metres of gas a year into Turkey. However, the Israeli strike against the South Pars gas field and other Iranian petroleum infrastructure has led to Turkish concerns over its energy security. Such fears were aggravated by the possibility that Iran could block the strategic Strait of Hormuz, wreaking havoc in global energy supply chains and causing worldwide energy costs and skyrocketing inflation.
The Turkish economy would additionally suffer a drop in tourism. Over 463,800 Iranian tourists visited Turkey in January and February 2025, according to the Turkish Ministry of Culture and Tourism, unseating Russians as the country's top visitors in those months. A prolonged conflict and its potential impacts on international stability and the global economy could severely impact tourism to Turkey, in general, a vital source of national revenue.
Alluding to the secret pact between the British and French colonial powers during World War I to divvy up the Middle East, Erdoğan told the OIC Foreign Ministers Council, 'Turkey will never allow the establishment of a new Sykes–Picot order whose borders will be drawn with blood in our region.'
* A version of this article appears in print in the 26 June, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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