Asian shares rise with upbeat data from US
The SET recorded its best week of the year, finishing above 1,200 points, fuelled by hopes that Thailand would get a better tariff deal from the US and a new central bank governor will ease monetary policy.
The Thai index moved in a range of 1,121.64 and 1,210.01 points this week, before closing on Friday at 1,206.58, up 7.6% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 50.39 billion baht.
Institutional investors were net buyers of 5.09 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 3.75 billion and brokerage firms at 183.40 million. Retail investors were net sellers of 9.02 billion baht.
NEWSMAKERS: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto hailed a "new era" of trade relations with the United States, after President Donald Trump said he had slashed the country's tariff rate from 32% to 19%. Jakarta has agreed to erase all duties on US imports and buy $19 billion worth of American products including 50 Boeing jets.
Trump is threatening 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico if no new trade agreements can be reached by Aug 1. He said the EU had missed previous opportunities when the US offered to reduce tariffs to 10%. He also hinted at announcing tariff rates on pharmaceutical products in late July.
The EU is preparing to retaliate against US tariffs with $84 billion worth of measures covering industrial and agricultural products including aircraft, automobiles and Bourbon whiskey.
Trump said he is not planning to fire Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, but he kept the door open to the possibility as he renewed his criticism of the central bank chief for not lowering interest rates.
US inflation climbed more than expected to 2.7% in June, from 2.4% in May, signalling that tariffs are hitting prices. New York Fed president John Williams estimates tariffs will add 1% to inflation between now and the middle of 2026.
China's economy exceeded expectations in the second quarter with GDP expanding 5.2% from a year earlier. However, investors are bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall and consumer confidence remains low.
China's exports in June grew more than expected by 5.8%, driven by accelerated shipments before US tariff measures take effect on Aug 1. Exports to Thailand and Vietnam showed the highest growth.
Canada's Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc has abandoned its $45.8-billion bid to buy Seven & i Holdings, saying the Japanese 7-Eleven operator had refused "meaningful engagement". Shares of the Japanese retailer plunged 9.6% on the news.
Japan's exports fell for a second month, edging down 0.5% in June from a year earlier, dragged down by sharp falls in the value of car and steel shipments.
A record 21.5 million tourists visited Japan in the first six months of the year, a 21% increase year-on-year, official figures showed.
China's cabinet has pledged to regulate what it called "irrational" competition in the country's EV industry, vowing to strengthen cost investigation and price monitoring.
The Chinese automaker Geely will acquire all shares in the EV maker Zeekr that it does not already own for $2.4 billion, the companies said on Tuesday.
Tesla opened its first showroom in India on Tuesday, marking its entry into the world's most populous country, as the EV maker seeks new customers amid sagging sales in the US and Europe.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) expects sales growth of about 30% in US dollar terms this year, after net profit for the three months to June soared 60.7% from a year ago to $13.6 billion.
Nvidia Corp plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip in China after securing Washington's assurances that such shipments would get approved.
Malaysia has issued rules controlling exports of high-performance AI chips originating from the US to third countries.
The Vietnamese government says it is targeting GDP growth of between 8.3% and 8.5% this year.
Thailand expects the US to reduce a threatened tariff from 36% to a level in line with regional neighbours after seeing a "very substantial improvement" in talks on Thursday, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said. The offer is said to include a reduction to zero of Thai tariffs on 90% of US goods.
The cabinet on Tuesday is expected to make a final decision on the new Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor, as the finance minister did not submit his recommendation in time for last Tuesday's meeting.
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra suggested the country create a golden visa scheme for wealthy foreigners to become long-term residents and called on Airports of Thailand to hike passenger service fees to boost the sluggish economy.
The Securities and Exchange Commission and the BoT are planning a trial programme that will allow foreigners to exchange cryptocurrencies for baht to spend in Thailand, aiming to stimulate tourism.
Foreign arrivals to Thailand from Jan 1 to July 13 were down 5.6% from the same period last year, to 17.75 million, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports said. The Bank of Thailand has cut its arrivals forecast this year to 35 million from 37.5 million.
The Industrial Sentiment Index (ICI) fell for a fourth straight month in June, hitting a 9-month low of 87.7, due to worries over US tariffs, the Federation of Thai Industries said.
The Thai Retailers Association said its Retailer Confidence Index in June fell to a 42-month low amid fragile consumer purchasing power and delayed business investment.
COMING UP: On Monday, the Bank of Canada releases a business outlook survey. On Tuesday, Fed chairman Jerome Powell speaks, and on Wednesday the US announces existing home sales. On Thursday, the European Central Bank announces a rate decision and the US updates manufacturing data and new home sales. On Friday, the US reports durable goods orders and Russia announces a rate decision.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities expects the Bank of Thailand will cut interest rates once or twice more by year-end to mitigate the negative impact of US tariffs. It recommends rate-sensitive stocks and high-dividend plays, such as TIDLOR, MTC, SAWAD, KKP, TISCO and SPALI. Defensive stocks, such as hospital operators BDMS, BH and BCH are also a good option.
Looking at Thai-US trade talks, the best-case scenario is a tariff rate of 18–20%. This could lower input costs and benefit companies such as CPALL, HMPRO and COM7 (domestic consumption and retail), as well as DELTA and HANA, KCE (exporters reliant on imported materials). In the worst case, a 36% tariff could reduce Thai GDP by as much as 6%, with SMEs especially hard hit.
InnovestX Securities highlights ongoing political uncertainties, especially pending Constitutional Court rulings, as a source of market volatility. With the SET having risen significantly, short-term profit-taking is possible. Its picks are GULF at a target price of 70 baht, BCH at 20 baht and PTT at 41 baht.
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