GOP eyes redistricting in Ohio and Texas as it looks to bolster slim majority

The Hill

20 hours ago

Republicans are eyeing potential redistricting opportunities in Ohio and Texas as they seek extra cushion to protect their thin majority in the House next year.
In Ohio, redistricting laws mandate a redraw ahead of 2026 because the last map passed without bipartisan support. And in Texas, redistricting could be added to an upcoming special session agenda as the White House reportedly pushes the Lone Star State to consider redrawing to protect the party's numbers.
Defending a narrow 220-212 majority, Republicans are bracing for a competitive election cycle as they look to defy traditional headwinds typically associated with the president's party in midterm years.
'I think the Speaker and party leadership look at even a handful of districts as really important, particularly if the natural trend — given the president's popularity at this point and given historic midterm conditions — means that the Republican Party starts out assuming they're going to lose a couple districts right off the bat,' said Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University who founded the database 'All About Redistricting.'
'Ohio is going to have to redraw, one way or the other. Texas is mulling whether to redraw. And there are a lot of competing pressures.'
Each state redraws its maps once a decade, after the U.S. Census. But in Ohio, the lines used for the last four years are up for a redraw under a wonky state law that effectively sped up the expiration date because they didn't earn bipartisan support.
Should Republicans decide to make the maps more competitive, Ohio Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur and Emilia Sykes, who represent Ohio's 9th and 13th Congressional Districts respectively, would likely be impacted.
President Trump won Kaptur's district, which includes Toledo, by close to 7 points, while Sykes's seat, which includes Akron, was essentially tied by Trump and former Vice President Harris in 2024, according to The Downballot. Both are already competitive for Democrats, though both Kaptur and Sykes have been strong candidates despite the political terrain.
'It's no surprise that special interests in Washington and Columbus want to ignore the voters and rig the game,' Sykes campaign spokesman Justin Barasky said in a statement.
Kaptur campaign political director David Zavac projected confidence over the congresswoman's election next year, while also pointing out that the state will have seen three different maps this decade alone.
'The Congresswoman looks forward to a spirited campaign next year,' Zavac said in a statement, 'but will let the GOP focus on what will surely be another messy primary ahead once they finish their illegal gerrymandering process to try and rig the maps further in their favor.'
The Ohio Constitution lays out detailed rules for drawing House districts , meaning that only certain counties and cities can be divided, some of that based on population stipulations.
Ahead of the required 2025 redistricting, Democrats had sought to pass an amendment to the state Constitution last year that would have reformed the redistricting process in the state, giving the party a better chance of making seats more competitive between the parties.
But voters rejected the ballot measure amid confusion over the amendment language; the Ohio Ballot Board approved language that said the amendment would 'repeal constitutional protections against gerrymandering' when its supporters said the initiative stated it would do the opposite.
While the redistricting process offers Republicans a unique opportunity to reconfigure better maps for its House members, it's not without its own perils.
'I do think the best pressure that could force them to do some things that are more reasonable would be Republicans in nearby districts saying, 'Don't carve up our districts, we like our [districts], we don't want them to change,'' said former state Democratic Party Chair David Pepper.
In Texas, where there are no specific timing rules for re-making maps, state lawmakers are reportedly under pressure from the White House and national Republicans to consider making mid-decade changes that could help shore up GOP numbers.
The state legislature just gaveled out their latest regular session, with the next not slated until 2027. But amid the chatter about redistricting, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) called a special session to kick off July 21.
Though redistricting isn't among the governor's official 'initial agenda' items, there's still time for the matter to be added to the docket or included in a future special session.
'The Republicans in Congress are looking at a very, very narrow majority, and they're looking for every opportunity around the country to increase that majority with things like redistricting [and] the election. They're gonna use every tool at their disposal to do that,' said Texas Republican strategist Brendan Steinhauser.
'Texas is a very red state, so if they can pick up two seats or three seats, then they might give it a try. And even if it makes a seat in a very deep red state a little more competitive, so be it. I think that's some of the thinking,' he said.
One Republican strategist who requested anonymity to speak candidly told The Hill that the party will be on 'offense' regardless of how either state's map shakes out ahead of 2026.
A second GOP strategist pointed out that there's more Democrats – 13 – that won in Trump districts, while there's only three Republicans hailing from districts won by former Vice President Harris in 2024 overall.
'The numbers are in our favor,' the GOP strategist said. 'It's a game of inches right now.'
If Republicans do decide to redraw lines in Texas, it could blunt challenges to the maps that Texas drew after the 2020 census, including an ongoing trial in El Paso in which voter advocates allege that the maps discriminate against some Black and Latino voters.
The 2021 maps were already seen as shoring up Republican power in the Lone Star State, but proponents of redistricting reportedly think the GOP's 25-12 congressional edge could expand by several seats.
The situation has given some lawmakers a sense of deja vu. Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) was among the more than 50 state lawmakers who fled Texas for Oklahoma to deny Republicans a quorum in 2003 as the GOP revisited drawing the state's congressional lines. Texas Republicans, however, were ultimately successful at redrawing favorable lines for their party.
'It's just a total partisan power grab that's gonna completely mess with representation in Texas,' Castro, who was a freshman during the 2003 walkout, told The Hill last month. 'And I hope that cooler minds will prevail, and they'll do redistricting when they're supposed to, which is after the end of the decade.'
Another layer of uncertainty is how the courts could weigh in on potential redistricting challenges. Both Texas and Ohio have conservative majorities on the state Supreme Courts, but legal challenges over redistricting from other states have been brought up to the U.S. Supreme Court. While the high court, too, has a conservative majority, it notably struck down Alabama's maps in 2023, saying they likely violated the Voting Rights Act.
But while shifting voters from solidly red districts to bluer ones could make Democratic-held seats more competitive, it could similarly blunt the edge of some now-safe GOP seats. The House Democrats' campaign suggested in a statement that the predicament is a lose-lose situation for Republicans.
'House Republicans are running scared because they know they will lose the House majority next November, and their only solutions are corrupt attempts to suppress battleground voters' voices,' Madison Andrus, a spokeswoman for the House Democrats' campaign arm, said in a statement.
'Any changes they try to make to existing maps may endanger existing Republican-held seats,' she continued, 'and in an environment where the public is wildly unhappy with the Republican agenda of broken promises, they should be careful what they wish for.'
Ahead of the midterms, though, that might be a risk some are willing to take to put more districts in play for Republicans.
'Republican redistricting was key to flipping the House in 2022, preserving the majority in 2024, and can help defend it again in 2026,' said Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust.