What next for EU-Poland ties after Nawrocki's election win? – DW – 06/03/2025
Right-wing conservative Karol Nawrocki has won the race for the Polish presidency. During the election campaign, Nawrocki touted his affinity with US President Donald Trump and pledged a "Poland first" approach. He opposes Ukraine's accession to NATO and is perceived as an EU skeptic. Polish voters elected Nawrocki with the slimmest of margins on Monday morning, prompting reactions across all of Europe.
Many heads of state and government congratulated the future Polish president. Among those belonging to the right-wing political spectrum were Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The latter enthused about a "fantastic victory" and strengthening the work of the Visegrad Group, a political alliance consisting of Poland, Hungary, The Czech Republic and Slovakia. Other heads of state and government, including Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda, emphasized common values. French President Emmanuel Macron called on Poland to champion a Europe that's "strong, independent, competitive" and "respects the rule of law."
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen sent congratulations as well. On X, she wrote: "I'm confident that the EU will continue its very good cooperation with Poland. We are all stronger together in our community of peace, democracy, and values."
Nawrocki ideologically close to PiS party
Nawrocki is officially non-partisan, but entered the campaign for presidency as a candidate backed by the right-wing conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party that ruled Poland between 2015 and 2023. During its term of office, the party reformed the Polish judicial system, sparking an ongoing dispute with Brussels over accusations of dismantling the rule of law. This eventually led to a so-called Article 7 procedure. The European Union's Article 7 allows for the suspension of member state rights if that state seriously and repeatedly violates the EU core values.
Despite new government, Poland remains polarized
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
The procedure was closed last year when the country announced it would implement the required changes. As a result, billions of euros were disbursed to Poland, funds that had previously been frozen by the EU due to concerns about the rule of law. Many Polish government proposals were vetoed by sitting President Andrzej Duda, who also has PiS leanings. Observers expect this obstructive stance to continue under the new president. The EU Commission declined to speculate on possible repercussions. In its daily press briefing, it emphasized its confidence in Poland's further implementation of reforms and its support for the country's efforts.
Are new tensions with the EU over the rule of law imminent?
Daniel Freund, a member of the European Parliament, fears that Poland's political deadlock will continue. He calls on the EU commission to correct its "mistake" — prematurely releasing frozen EU funds — and to continue putting pressure on Poland.
Piotr Buras, Warsaw bureau head of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW that the EU Commission would have to take into consideration what actually happened in Poland. For example, the government under Donald Tusk had seen to it that illegal laws are no longer applied, thus removing the grounds for Article 7 proceedings. Buras believes that a renewed clash with the EU over the rule of law is out of the question with the Tusk government in power.
Nawrocki is expected to obstruct the agenda of Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk (pictured above) Image: Frederic GARRIDO-RAMIREZ/European Union
How will the ballot impact Poland's EU policy?
According to Buras, the newly elected president does not have the chance to exert direct influence on Poland's EU policy, because according to the Polish constitution this is solely down to the government, the political scientist said.
As commander-in-chief of the armed forces, the president of Poland appoints the government, signs international treaties, and has the power to veto laws. This is precisely how Nawrocki could interfere with the government's EU policy, said Buras. As soon as EU policy had to be implemented in national legislation, he could block it, thereby reducing the Tusk government's room for maneuver, he added. Buras expects such blockades in issues like the rule of law, abortion, migration and climate policy. He simultaneously pointed out that the Tusk government was itself far from progressive in the areas of migration and climate policy.
EU Parliament torn between joy and skepticism
Whereas Manfred Weber, chairman of the conservative European People's Party (EPP) group in the European Parliament, hoped that Nawrocki would work "constructively' with Poland's government for the country's benefit, MEP Rene Repasi believed that the Polish government was caught up in a "mess." For the social democrat, new parliamentary elections are not unlikely, because the right-wing conservative Nawrocki and the "Tusk government's progressive agenda" would get in each other's way.
However, the right-wing conservative European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which also includes Poland's PiS party, welcomed Nawrocki's election victory. Europe must remain a "community of free nations," not a "machine" that ignores "the will of the people," said the group's co-chairman, Nicola Procaccini.
Political scientist Buras, however, believes that Nawrocki's election victory was not tantamount to voting against the EU. Neither PiS nor Nawrocki had ever called for Poland's exit from the bloc. At the same time, Buras added that skepticism regarding a loss of sovereignty and interference in the country's internal affairs was widespread in Poland, and Nawrocki had taken advantage of that prevailing mood.
This article was originally written in German.
Edited by: Jess Smee
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
DW
2 hours ago
- DW
Bulgaria's arrest of liberal, pro-EU mayor sparks protests – DW – 07/26/2025
Thousands of Bulgarians have been protesting what they say is undue political influence on local justice. Many believe the EU is turning a blind eye to corruption in the Balkan country for political reasons. "My main motivation to be here in this square is my desire for justice," Berkay says. The young man was taking part in a protest held last week in Bulgaria's coastal city of Varna, against the arrest of the local mayor. "My conscience and my sense of civic duty wouldn't allow me just to stand here with my arms folded, in the face of the obvious trend towards authoritarianism in our country," he told DW. Along with other protesters, Berkay didn't want to give his full name. The protests started after the July 8 arrest of Varna's mayor Blagomir Kotsev, a member of the reformist We Continue the Change, or PP, political party. He was arrested during a raid by Bulgaria's Commission for Anti-Corruption. Kotsev was accused of running a criminal group that extorted companies that received public contracts. Two municipal council members from Kotsev's own party and a businessman from Varna were named as his accomplices in the alleged scheme. The mayor's arrest also sparked demonstrations in Bulgaria's capital, Sofia, as well as in other places, and has become a symbol for the general public's growing concern about how their current government is using the public prosecutor's office as a weapon. "Such measures represent a serious interference with democracy and undermine the credibility of the judiciary," another demonstrator, Konstantin, says when DW meets him outside Varna's city hall. "This is not an isolated incident, it's part of a larger problem in the Bulgarian justice system," he argues. The fact that Bulgaria has some serious problems with its justice system is well known. In the latest report on the state of law in the country the European Commission — the body responsible for the day-to-day running of the European Union — notes that there have been barely any improvements. In fact, the EU report was issued on the same day as Varna's mayor was arrested. "Bulgarian democracy is in danger and all those who care about it must abandon their political party affiliations and oppose attempts to impose autocracy and authoritarianism in the country," Bulgarian political scientist Daniel Smilov, also a specialist in comparative constitutional law, writes. "These terms may sound vague and exaggerated but unfortunately they accurately describe what is happening: Key institutions have been hijacked and power and violence have been used to advance the interests of particular political interests." For a long time, Varna's political scene was dominated by the conservative, right-wing party, GERB, short for Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria. It is also the party of the country's current prime minister Rosen Zhelyazko, as well as long-time Bulgarian leader Boyko Borissov, who previously served three terms as prime minister. Borissov and his allies were regularly accused of corruption and there had already been major protests about this in 2020. Borissov is seen to be close to media tycoon and oligarch Delyan Peevski, who's also the leader of a political party, New Beginning. The protesters believe that even though Peevski is currently officially in opposition, he wields too much power in Bulgarian politics. In fact, Varna's mayor Kotsev first became known on the political scene during those 2020 protests before he won in municipal elections in 2023. The main accusations against Kotsev rely almost exclusively on statements by a Bulgarian businesswoman, Plamenka Dimitrova, the owner of a catering business that has often been contracted to state and public functions. Dimitrova is allegedly close to the GERB party and during Borissov's time in office, her company was awarded contracts worth millions. However the new leadership in Varna decided to work with another service provider, one which would do the job for less money. Dimitrova claims she was asked to hand over 15% of the value of the contract if she wished to keep it. Another witness in the case against Kotsev is the city's former deputy mayor, Dian Ivanov. At first Ivanov seemed to confirm Dimitrova's story but then later he withdrew his comments and said they had been "untruths" made "under pressure" from the anti-corruption commission. Despite this, Ivanov was not questioned again and his later-withdrawn statements led to the July 18 court decision to arrest Kotsev and the others. According to Kotsev's party, PP, and their political allies in Democratic Bulgaria, or DB, another pro-European party, the case against Kotsev is part of a wider campaign against opposition parties like his, that is being led by the country's prosecutor general Borislav Sarafov. He is not independent, they claim, and he serves to protect the conservative movements' political interests. At the end of last month, another PP member, the deputy mayor of Sofia Nikola Barbutov, was also arrested on very similar charges: corruption and membership of an organized crime group. Up until now, there's been very little reaction from the European Commission regarding what's happening in Bulgaria. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is a member of the conservative German party, the Christian Democratic Union, or CDU, and the CDU is a member of the same European parliament alliance as Bulgaria's GERB. Many of the demonstrators in Bulgaria argue that is why von der Leyen is staying quiet about what they see as GERB's wrongdoing. "Ursula, do you still support GERB?" is a slogan seen on many of the placards at the demonstrations in Bulgaria. "I hope the EU stops unreservedly giving money to these villains," says Philip, a protester in Sofia. "Boyko's regime is nothing without the money from Europe. Peevski's regime is nothing without the money from Europe." Back in Varna, local demonstrator Berkay predicts a long fight ahead. "I believe we must finally fight these evil models and those who embody them," he said. "One day, when we become parents, we don't want to be ashamed of the situation we're leaving to our children."
Int'l Business Times
21 hours ago
- Int'l Business Times
Trump, EU Chief To Meet Sunday In Push For Trade Deal
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen and US President Donald Trump said Friday they would meet in Scotland this weekend in a decisive push to resolve a months-long transatlantic trade standoff. In a drive to slash his country's trade deficits, Trump has vowed to hit dozens of countries with punitive tariff hikes if they do not hammer out a pact with Washington by August 1. The EU -- which is facing an across-the-board levy of 30-percent -- has been pushing hard for a deal with Trump's administration, while also planning retaliation should talks fall short. Von der Leyen first announced the meeting, writing on X: "Following a good call with POTUS, we have agreed to meet in Scotland on Sunday to discuss transatlantic trade relations, and how we can keep them strong." Arriving on UK soil late Friday, Trump confirmed he would meet the head of the European Commission, which has been negotiating with Washington on behalf of the 27-nation bloc. "I'll be meeting with the EU on Sunday, and we'll be working on a deal," he told reporters as he touched down at Prestwick Airport near Glasgow. "Ursula will be here -- a highly respected woman. So we look forward to that," Trump said. "We'll see if we make a deal," added the president -- who reiterated earlier comments saying the chance of a deal was "50-50", with sticking points remaining on "maybe 20 different things." "But we're meeting ... with the European Union. And that would be, actually, the biggest deal of them all, if we make it," he said. The high-level meeting follows months of negotiations between top EU and US trade officials, and days of signals suggesting the sides were moving towards an agreement. According to multiple European diplomats, the agreement under consideration would involve a baseline 15-percent US levy on EU goods -- the same level secured by Japan this week -- and potential carve-outs for critical sectors. Von der Leyen's spokesperson Paula Pinho said "intensive negotiations" had been taking place at technical and political level in the run up to Sunday's meeting. "Leaders will now take stock and consider the scope for a balanced outcome that provides stability and predictability for businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic," she said. Hit by multiple waves of tariffs since Trump reclaimed the White House, the EU is currently subject to a 25-percent levy on cars, 50 percent on steel and aluminium, and an across-the-board tariff of 10 percent, which Washington threatens to hike to 30 percent in a no-deal scenario. The EU wants to avoid sweeping tariffs inflicting further harm on the European economy -- already suffering from sluggish growth -- and damaging a trading relationship worth an annual 1.6 trillion euros ($1.9 trillion) in goods and services. EU member states gave the European Commission a mandate to pursue a deal to avoid hefty US tariffs, with retaliation held out as a last resort if talks fail. Seeking to keep up the pressure in the final stretch of talks, EU states on Thursday backed a package of retaliation on $109 billion (93 billion euros) of US goods including aircraft and cars -- to kick in in stages from August 7 if there is no deal. Most states prefer a deal to no deal -- even with undesirable levies of 15 percent -- but exemptions are key, with aircraft, steel, lumber, pharmaceutical products and agricultural goods under discussion, diplomats said. Concerning steel, diplomats say a compromise could allow a certain quota to enter the United States, with amounts beyond that taxed at 50 percent. Since launching its tariffs campaign, Trump's administration has so far unveiled just five agreements, including with Britain, Japan and the Philippines. While EU hopes have been rising for a deal, the approaching August 1 deadline also comes with a sense of deja-vu: earlier this month, EU officials also believed they were on the cusp of a deal, before Trump hiked his tariff threat to 30-percent. "The final decision is in the hands of President Trump," an EU diplomat stressed this week. Von der Leyen hopes to minimise the scale of Trump's threatened further tariffs on EU good exports, and perhaps win carve outs for certain industries AFP
DW
a day ago
- DW
Germany risks missing opportunities in Africa – DW – 07/25/2025
Germany wants more economic engagement in Africa. However, while other countries have long been taking action, Berlin lacks strategy and speed. Geopolitically, there is much more at stake than just raw materials. China invests, India trades, and the Gulf States build. And what does Germany do? It often just watches. As the global competition for Africa's markets and raw materials escalates, German policy continues to lack strategic clarity. There is a lot at stake: Economic opportunities, geopolitical influence, and long-term partnerships. Something needs to change, German Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil said. At a G20 meeting of finance ministers in the South African city of Durban, he emphasized that partners in the global south share an interest in stable trade relations and respect for human rights. The task was to strengthen the economic relationship between Germany and South Africa — as well as that between Europe and Africa as a whole. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video A few days earlier, the Sub-Saharan Africa Initiative of German Business (SAFRI) called for a strategic reorientation. The so-called "Africa turnaround" was long overdue, it said. How realistic is this wish for renewal? And what is standing in the way? Trade data paints a sobering picture: German exports to the region have been stagnant for more than a decade. In 2014, they were valued at €13.3 billion ($15.6 billion), 10 years later, only €14.2 billion in German exports was traded. Accounting for inflation, the growth rate is virtually zero. Africa has no lack of economic dynamism. Countries such as Tanzania, Ivory Coast or Senegal have been recording robust growth rates for years. Demand for infrastructure, consumer goods and energy is rising across the continent, also fueled by rapid population growth. A big opportunity for German exporters. The main beneficiaries of these developments are, however, elsewhere: Companies from China, India, Turkey or the Gulf states clinch the biggest contracts. China has multiplied its exports and investments in Africa over the past 20 years. German firms, by comparison, have lost market share in many sectors. "A new race for Africa is taking place due to the relative decline of the EU and the US," according to political scientist Kai Koddenbrock from Bard College in Berlin said. A key example of this is the global competition for critical raw materials. Africa has a key role here. Whether cobalt, bauxite, lithium or rare earth: many of these strategically important minerals are already being extracted from the African continent or remain untapped. They are essential for making batteries, wind turbines and electronic motors — technologies central to green and digital transformation. As global demand climbs, especially China is securing access to these resources — often supported by long-tern infrastructure projects and a clear industrial-political strategy. US President Donald Trump has also begun a charm offensive. Germany, on the other hand, risks falling behind. German industry is now sounding the alarm: China accounts for more than 60% of rare earth mining and almost 90% of refining. The recent export restrictions from Bejing have suddenly laid bare Europe's dependence. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Has the game already been lost? Christoph Kannengiesser, CEO of the German-African Business Association, doesn't think so. He sees Germany as having a favorable starting position, due to its good reputation in Africa. "Our companies are already doing very special things," Kannengiesser told DW. Instead of mining raw materials, German interests are most focused on greenfield investments, local partnerships, and the development of sustainable structures. Many German companies are well known for implementing know-how in their African locations. Germany's policies come across as unpretentious, "especially at a time when African countries are increasingly focused on self-responsibility and industry development, which could be a decisive competitive advantage," the economist said. Kannengiesser pleads for the German government to pick up the pace. A coherent Africa strategy has so far been lacking. The latest plan was finalized shortly before the election late last year, far too late to show any effect. Such a strategy needs to guide action for years, he said. Germany needs to finally have an ambitious, differentiated plan, he concluded. "A lot has happened in the past 10 years," said Tom Halgasch, founder of Das Labor. GmbH which since 2011 has operated medical laboratories in Guinea, Ivory Coast and Togo. He observes however, that Germany's neighbors such as Belgium, the Netherlands or France, often have easier access. "They see economic engagement in Africa as part of their foreign policy. If, for example, a permit is not forthcoming, the embassy will take action." In addition, there are practical hurdles such as financing, visa issues, or a lack of double taxation agreements. The entrepreneur from Potsdam wishes for Germany to integrate foreign trade, diplomacy, and development cooperation more strongly in the future. To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The biggest obstacle to more entrepreneurial engagement in Africa is the prevailing narrative, Christoph Kannengiesser said: The continent is perceived as too risky. That has direct consequences: Banks impose hefty interest rates or refuse credit if security or political stability is lacking. The government could intervene here via targeted instruments to secure and facilitate investments, especially for small and medium enterprises. Minister Plenipotentiary at the South African embassy in Berlin, Andries Oosthuizen, confirms that Germany continues to have a good reputation in Africa as a partner in technology and training. "We need investment in infrastructure, because ultimately German companies and investors are looking for stability and political security," Oosthuizen told DW. But economic engagement alone is not enough. Eventually, the fundamental question arises: How does Germany see its role in Africa? As an equal partner, an investor, or a securer of raw materials? Kai Koddenbrock from Bard College Berlin doubts promises of equal partnership. German interests revolve around stable supply chains and affordable access to resources. "I consider it unrealistic to think Germany is really interested in a strong African continent which can impose higher prices," he said. Investments are only fair if they are oriented toward the economic and political goals of African countries. That means local processing, developing countries' own industries and economic independence from European interests. "If it is really about a partnership of equals, Europe must also be prepared to accept bloc building in the Global South and to pay higher prices for processed or finished products from Africa," Koddenbrock said. "We must ask ourselves what sort of economy we want, in Germany and also globally." It is a defining moment. Germany still has the chance to become a trustworthy partner in Africa: economically, politically, and technologically. However, it will take more than announcements to achieve you're here: Every Tuesday, DW editors round up what is happening in German politics and society. You can sign up here for the weekly email newsletter, Berlin Briefing.
