Every Big Ten team's best and worst-case scenario for 2025
Illinois
Nov 30, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini running back Aidan Laughery (21) runs for a touchdown against Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images
Best case scenario: 11-1
Worst case scenario: 6-6
The Fighting Illini have a wide range of possible outcomes in 2024, with several toss-ups throughout the year. Ohio State is seemingly the only guaranteed loss, while Western Illinois, Western Michigan and Purdue should be easy wins. Playing at Duke, at Indiana, vs. USC, at Washington and at Wisconsin will likely all be close games, and dropping a stinker against Rutgers, Maryland or Northwestern isn't out of the picture. If all goes well, Illinois will be in College Football Playoff contention, but several tricky road games could derail things.
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Indiana
Indiana's Mike Katic (56) and the Hoosiers hoist the bucket after the Indiana versus Purdue football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024.
Best-case scenario: 10-2
Worst-case scenario: 7-5
The Hoosiers open with one of the softest nonconference slates in the country, hosting Old Dominion, Kennesaw State and Indiana State, which should result in easy victories. After that, things get trickier with matchups against Illinois, Iowa, Oregon, Penn State and Wisconsin on the docket. Two or more losses against that group seems extremely likely, especially considering Indiana will be on the road against the Hawkeyes, Ducks and Nittany Lions, three of the toughest environments around.
Iowa
Dec 4, 2021; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Detailed view of Iowa Hawkeyes helmet on the sidelines in the Big Ten Conference championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Best-case scenario: 9-3
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Hawkeyes have won eight or more games every season since 2015, but that streak is at risk in 2025. The annual CyHawk rivalry game could prove tougher than usual with Iowa State coming off a Big 12 conference championship appearance. Additionally, Iowa will be an underdog in conference games against Penn State, Oregon and USC, and games against Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska could be tricky. With one of Iowa's toughest schedules in recent history, achieving eight wins again would be a successful season.
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Maryland
Oct 19, 2024; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley during the second half Southern California Trojans at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 7-5
Worst-case scenario: 4-8
The Terrapins are in danger of the wheels falling off after a disappointing 4-8 season a year ago. The nonconference slate features three supposed cupcake games, but NIU could give Maryland a run for its money. In Big Ten play, the Terrapins received a relatively easy draw, with Michigan and Illinois as the two toughest opponents. Wisconsin, Washington, Nebraska and Indiana could be tricky, depending on how their rosters mesh, and Maryland isn't clearly above teams like UCLA and Michigan State. Finding wins in conference play will be tricky for the Terrapins in 2025.
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Michigan State
Aug 30, 2024; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans running back Nate Carter (5) follows blocker Michigan State Spartans offensive lineman Kristian Phillips (71) during the game against the Florida Atlantic Owls at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-USA TODAY Sports
Best-case scenario: 7-5
Worst-case scenario: 4-8
The Spartans should have free wins over Western Michigan and Youngstown State and will be favored over Boston College in nonconference play. Playing Michigan and Penn State pencils in two losses, and most of the toss-ups (Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, Iowa) are on the road. The Spartans should go undefeated through nonconference play and pick off a couple Big Ten opponents, but the conference slate is tough.
Michigan
Dec 31, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive lineman Ike Iwunnah (92) celebrates a sack with Michigan Wolverines linebacker Ernest Hausmann (15) against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 11-1
Worst-case scenario: 8-4
In addition to their annual rivalry against Ohio State, the Wolverines travel to USC and Oklahoma, but the rest of the schedule seems manageable for them. Michigan is riding momentum after beating the Buckeyes and Alabama in back-to-back games to close out last season, and should get a significant improvement in quarterback play from either 5-star Bryce Underwood or veteran transfer Mikey Keene. The Wolverines should compete for a playoff appearance and possibly a conference championship.
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Minnesota
Jan 3, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers running back Darius Taylor (1) scores a touchdown against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the second quarter at the Duke's Mayo Bowl at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 10-2
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Golden Gophers should go 3-0 in nonconference play, with a trip to Cal as the toughest test. Conference games against Rutgers, Purdue and Northwestern should be comfortable wins, giving Minnesota bowl eligibility, but there are also some likely losses, including at Ohio State and at Oregon.
Nebraska
Dec 28, 2024; Bronx, NY, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers running back Emmett Johnson (21) celebrates with teammates after a touchdown during the second half against the Boston College Eagles at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 8-4
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Cornhuskers have a relatively easy nonconference slate, but playing Michigan, USC, Penn State and Iowa make for uphill battles. Maryland, Northwestern and UCLA should provide easy wins in conference play, giving Nebraska bowl eligibility for the second consecutive season if it takes care of business.
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Northwestern
Nov 30, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats wide receiver A.J. Henning (8) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the second half at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 6-6
Worst-case scenario: 3-9
A nonconference road trip to Tulane won't be easy for a team of Northwestern's caliber, though Western Michigan and UL Monroe are all but guaranteed victories. Hosting UCLA and Purdue gives the Wildcats a good shot of beating some of the conference's bottom-dwellers, but wins outside of that will be hard to come by. The schedule-makers did Northwestern no favors by including Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, USC and Illinois, which will all be heavy favorites over the Wildcats.
Ohio State
Ohio State Buckeyes celebrate their 34-23 win over Notre Dame Fighting Irish to win the College Football Playoff National Championship at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on January 20, 2025.
Best-case scenario: 12-0
Worst-case scenario: 9-3
Fresh off a national championship, the Buckeyes have a chance to be the best team in the country once again, but their schedule features some elite opponents. A nonconference matchup with Texas and Big Ten games against Penn State and Michigan make for three major hurdles, and road trips to Washington, Wisconsin and Illinois could be trap games. Still, it's hard to see Ohio State dropping more than three contests.
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Oregon
The Oregon Ducks mascot walks the sideline during the College Football Playoff quarterfinal against the Ohio State Buckeyes at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on Jan. 1, 2025. Ohio State won 41-21.
Best-case scenario: 12-0
Worst-case scenario: 9-3
Nonconference games against Oregon State and Oklahoma State are interesting but should result in multiple-score victories for the Ducks. Oregon can't play itself and also avoids Ohio State and Michigan, so the only major tests should come at Penn State and at USC. Traveling to Iowa could be tricky, and dropping a rivalry game against Washington isn't out of the picture, so it's possible the Ducks regress to 9-3.
Penn State
Jan 9, 2025; Miami, FL, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) celebrates a touch down in the second half against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 12-0
Worst-case scenario: 9-3
The Nittany Lions benefit from an extremely weak nonconference schedule but have tough games at Ohio State and vs. Oregon, which should be close contest. Penn State may also be tested at Iowa or vs. Indiana, but the Nittany Lions have historically handled business when favored.
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Purdue
Purdue Boilermakers running back Devin Mockobee (45) celebrates with Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card (1) and Purdue Boilermakers offensive lineman Jalen Grant (75) after scoring Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024, during the NCAA football game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Northwestern Wildcats won 26-20.
Best-case scenario: 5-7
Worst-case scenario: 2-10
The Boilermakers should be able to pick up wins against Ball State and Southern Illinois but likely won't take down Notre Dame. In conference play, Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Illinois look to be losses, while games against Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington and Indiana won't be easy either. Purdue's best chance for a Big Ten win will come at Northwestern or vs. Rutgers, but neither are a given.
Rutgers
Dec 26, 2024; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights wide receiver Ian Strong (9) against the Kansas State Wildcats during the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 6-6
Worst-case scenario: 3-9
The Scarlet Knights benefit from a soft nonconference schedule and games against Purdue and Maryland, but the rest of the schedule is a murderer's row featuring most of the top teams in the conference. Picking up conference wins will be difficult, and reaching bowl eligibility will likely require an upset or two.
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UCLA
Oct 5, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; UCLA Bruins quarterback Jaylin Davies (6) gestures at the line of scrimmage during the second quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 6-6
Worst-case scenario: 3-9
The Bruins have a tough nonconference draw with Utah, UNLV and New Mexico State, plus Penn State, Ohio State and USC in conference play. Games against Northwestern and Maryland should lead to conference wins, but the rest will be tough.
USC
Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Best-case scenario: 10-2
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Trojans have a tough nonconference battle against Notre Dame but should also rack up two easy victories against Missouri State and Georgia Southern. In Big Ten action, USC takes on Oregon, Michigan, Illinois and Iowa, which should prove difficult, but playing UCLA, Northwestern and Purdue balances it out with some supposedly easy wins.
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Washington
Oct 5, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies running back Jonah Coleman (1) celebrates after rushing for a touchdown against the Michigan Wolverines during the fourth quarter at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 9-3
Worst-case scenario: 6-6
The Huskies should pick up a trio of easy nonconference victories, plus wins over Maryland, Rutgers and Purdue. Playing Ohio State and Oregon will be tough, but those games come at home. The toughest road trips are at Michigan and Wisconsin, which are tough but winnable. Washington should have no trouble reaching bowl eligibility, but there are several expected losses against top conference foes.
Wisconsin
Nov 29, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers running back Tawee Walker (3) during the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
Best-case scenario: 7-5
Worst-case scenario: 3-9
The Badgers have two cupcakes to open the season followed by a trip to Alabama, meaning a likely 2-1 start. Wisconsin has a brutal stretch in conference play featuring games at Michigan, vs. Iowa, vs. Ohio State, at Oregon, vs. Washington, at Indiana, vs. Illinois and at Minnesota, in which the Badgers may be underdogs in every game.
This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: Best and worst-case scenarios for every Big Ten team in 2025
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Draft strategy: Since quarterbacks typically don't start getting selected until the end of Round 2, Hurts should be on most draft boards in Round 4. Upside: No team gets more utilization out of its best player than the Bengals, which is how Burrow led all QBs in pass FPPG, short-pass FPPG, red zone targets and inside-the-10 targets in 2024. He insisted that Cincinnati's frugal ownership pony up the cash to keep Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, so Burrow still has the best 1-2 wide receiver combination in the NFL. The Bengals had to pass as often as they did last year in large part because their defense was beyond atrocious, and it may not be much better this season, so Burrow may once again have to try to win plenty of shootouts. Burrow consistently adds a reasonable number of fantasy points on the ground. Advertisement Downside: HC Zac Taylor knows that shootouts are 50/50 propositions, at best, even when a team has the caliber of offense Cincinnati has. That's why Taylor hired DC Al Golden, whose primary goal will be to limit the number of high-scoring games the Bengals have this year. That dovetails nicely with a midrange fireworks points total and a schedule with only two red-rated fireworks matchups in Weeks 1-12. Burrow has dealt with myriad injuries in his college and pro careers, so he has a low rushing production ceiling and had only three carries inside the 5-yard line last year. Overall: Cincinnati had to lean on Burrow quite heavily last year, and he responded with a lights-out performance, yet it only resulted in a No. 3 ranking in QB points. The Bengals' defensive changes should result in a marginal reduction in production, which moves Burrow just outside of the top three at his position. Draft strategy: The fantasy community knows a great passer who doesn't run the ball will usually rate behind superb dual-threat quarterbacks, so Burrow will be generally (and properly) valued as a third-round pick in most draft rooms. While I have him behind Hurts, his ADP on FantasyPros puts him ahead of Hurts, which is why I have Burrow going in Round 3, while I suggest taking Hurts in Round 4. Upside: Winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award is impressive, but don't forget that Daniels was also one of the NFL MVP front-runners for a good portion of last season. He scored as many rushing FPPG as Josh Allen despite having half as many rushing touchdowns. Daniels should have better passing numbers this season with the addition of Deebo Samuel and what may be the most improved offensive line personnel in the league. Daniels had nearly as many goal-line carries (10) as team leader Brian Robinson (11). Those resulted in only four scores, which could increase this year. Daniels and the Washington coaching staff are working hard to increase Daniels' playbook capabilities beyond his rookie season limitations. Downside: Daniels wasn't very productive on long passes last year. He ranked 21st in vertical FPPG and 20th in stretch-vertical FPPG. Samuel was 46th in stretch-vertical PPR PPG and 71st in vertical PPR PPG last year. He must improve in both departments to help Daniels reach new FPPG heights on those distant aerials. There is little quality receiving depth behind Samuel and Terry McLaurin. If Samuel doesn't pan out and McLaurin misses any time due to injury, Daniels' pass production could be hamstrung by what would be one of the worst pass-catching groups, and all of the schedule elements appear unfavorable. Overall: Daniels scored 355.8 points last year. It was the 34th time a quarterback has reached that point total. Only three quarterbacks have tallied back-to-back seasons of that nature. Unfortunately for Daniels, those three are Josh Allen (2020-24), Jalen Hurts (2022-23) and Patrick Mahomes (2020-22). Add in Joe Burrow (372.8 points last year), and at least four other quarterbacks can reach or top that point total. That's why, even though this year's projection has Daniels posting a campaign equal to 2024, he's only my QB5 in fantasy. Draft strategy: Daniels won't make it past the third round in nearly all drafts. Upside: Mahomes started slow last season, but turned things around in Week 8 with an 18.18-point performance. That was the beginning of a stretch that ended with Mahomes ranking eighth in QB FPPG from Weeks 8-17 and finishing less than 3 points away from a top-six showing. With Hollywood Brown (coming back from injury), Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice (who played in only four games last year and will likely face a suspension due to his involvement in a 2024 vehicle accident), the Chiefs have the talent to upgrade their subpar vertical passing production significantly. Kansas City has shored up its offensive line to emphasize downfield passing. Mahomes is extraordinarily durable, having missed only two games in seven seasons. There are five green-rated fireworks matchups in Weeks 1-9. Advertisement Downside: The Chiefs' downfield passing attack needs more than a nominal upgrade, given the dismal long pass numbers this offense posted. Mahomes ranked 27th in vertical FPPG and 28th in stretch-vertical FPPG in 2024 — the second consecutive season Mahomes posted horrible numbers on downfield throws. Andy Reid worked just as hard to fix the problem then as now. Travis Kelce's regression isn't helping, nor is the consistent lack of quality pass blocking at offensive tackle. Rice is all but certain to be suspended for two to six games. Mahomes has one of the most difficult schedules from pass rush and pass coverage perspectives. Overall: Mahomes may no longer contend for the top overall fantasy QB spot, but he still has a well-defined path to be a top-six fantasy quarterback. Draft strategy: Fantasy managers who want upper-tier production without paying the draft premium for one of the top five quarterbacks should look to draft Mahomes in Round 5. Upside: Goff proves that a fantasy quarterback doesn't need a huge pass volume to produce strong fantasy numbers. He was third in pass FPPG, second in short-pass FPPG and in the top 10 in vertical and stretch-vertical FPPG — which led to a career high No. 6 ranking in QB points. This year, he could have an even higher ceiling. New OC John Morton may be more aggressive with the vertical passing game than Ben Johnson. Morton has indicated he will send as many long passes as possible to Jameson Williams, who Morton said is in line for a breakout season. Goff has missed only six games in the past eight seasons. The combined total of matchup and fireworks points is the highest at his position. Downside: Will Morton be a play-calling downgrade from Johnson? Any decline here could have a notable impact, given the relatively low pass volume. Goff has thrown 12+ interceptions in five of the past seven seasons. He adds almost nothing via the ground, with only four quarterbacks having a lower rush FPPG mark in 2024. The Lions saw the downside of shootouts late last year, so HC Dan Campbell may decide to be judicious in passing aggressiveness to prevent them. Center Frank Ragnow's retirement and the low pass rush points could be a hindrance. Overall: Goff was a mid-tier QB1 last year, without Williams's potential full breakout season. Factor in the general green light of a schedule, and Goff should have another mid-tier QB1 point total. Draft strategy: Goff could generate one of the best returns on investment at quarterback. He'll be available as a Round 7-8 pick and should generate at least fifth-round value. Advertisement Upside: Williams displayed his dual-threat skills on many occasions last year. He rushed for just short of 500 yards, which played into his ranking tied for eighth among QBs in games of 22+ points. Surprisingly, he did not record a rushing touchdown, so the yards led to a middling No. 14 ranking in rush FPPG, which Williams should easily be able to top this season. The Bears' offense ought to be much better with HC Ben Johnson calling plays. Chicago made multiple investments to upgrade their abysmal offensive line and added rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland to the passing game. Being in the NFC North leads to a high fireworks points total. Downside: The head coach change means another adjustment to a new system. The Lions were third in rush attempts and 16th in pass attempts last season. That's Johnson's run/pass ratio goal, so this won't be a pass-centric offense. There were times when Williams seemed to play it safe last year, which led to his throwing only six picks, thus preventing an issue where he forced passes into coverage like in college, but it is also why Williams had seven games with fewer than 10 points in 2024. If he is more aggressive on throws this year, it could result in more picks. Overall: The combination of the coaching change and personnel upgrades should give Williams at least as many big games as last year and reduce the number of single-digit scores. These paths to additional points project Williams to move into the middle of the QB1 tier. Draft strategy: Williams is the perfect prospect for fantasy managers looking for a relatively low-cost quarterback with the potential for 300+ points. That value proposition justifies a pick in Round 7, yet you may be able to draft Williams as late as Round 9. Upside: Mayfield proved that his 2023 QB1 performance was no fluke. He ranked fourth in overall FPPG, fourth in pass FPPG, third in short-pass FPPG and ninth in vertical pass FPPG. Tampa Bay returns every offensive starter from last year, and it added another aerial weapon in Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. Mayfield didn't skip a beat despite a change in offensive coordinators last season, so the move to new OC Josh Grizzard (the Buccaneers' pass game coordinator in 2024) should be smooth. Mayfield isn't an impact rusher, but he was one of only 12 quarterbacks to average 3+ FPPG on the ground. The pass rush schedule is a cakewalk. There are eight green-rated matchups all year, including four straight in Weeks 14-17, and only one red-rated matchup. Downside: Tampa Bay's offense will likely be an All-Pro short to start the season. Left tackle Tristan Wirfs had late offseason knee surgery and is slated to begin the year on the PUP list. Mayfield and Lamar Jackson were the only quarterbacks with two streaks of four or more games with 20+ points. Since Jackson has done that five times in his career, and these were Mayfield's only ones, the Bucs' QB is a regression candidate. The 373-rush yard total he posted last year was more than double his previous single-season high, suggesting a drop-off is coming. Overall: There is a lot to like here, but that's not enough to dissipate the cloud of regression uncertainty. Even so, Mayfield should have a high floor that keeps him near the middle of the QB1 tier. Advertisement Draft strategy: Mayfield will be a popular pick in Rounds 4-5 but should be selected in Rounds 7-8. Upside: Murray has a strong track record of solid or better production in many areas. Last year, he was sixth in rush FPPG, 13th in short-pass FPPG, and 12th in overall FPPG. The addition of Marvin Harrison led to a notable improvement in Murray's vertical FPPG. Murray was ninth in pass attempts inside the 10-yard line, which indicates OC Drew Petzing trusts Murray to throw in that area of the field. Harrison and Trey McBride give Murray one of the league's top WR/TE combinations. Murray is now two years removed from knee surgery and may get back to his former top-flight rushing form. He also has one of the most favorable matchup points totals at his position. Downside: The vertical pass improvement with Harrison's addition was relative. Murray went from dead last in vertical FPPG in 2022 and 2023 to 26th in 2024. Murray also had the fifth-lowest stretch-vertical FPPG mark. Last year was only the third time in six NFL seasons Murray played in every game. Arizona has a new offensive line coach in his first year as an NFL coach at any level, and the Cardinals have two new offensive line starters. Murray's rush production includes almost no goal-line carries (only one in 2024). The Cardinals may not want to risk injury with those types of rushes. Arizona has seven red-rated vertical pass defense matchups in an eight-game span from Weeks 3-11. The Cardinals have a very favorable rush defense schedule that could put a low ceiling on the team's pass attempts. Overall: Murray has been a QB1 on four occasions but ranked higher than eighth in only one of those campaigns (third in 2020). There is enough to suggest that Murray has QB1 value in 2025, but he also has the same limited ceiling as his historical trends indicate. Add it up and he's a low-end QB1. Draft strategy: Murray's value level is well known, so he'll move off draft boards sometime in Rounds 7-9. Upside: It took a few weeks for the world to see what Sean Payton saw in Nix, but by the end of the year, it was clear that Nix is a franchise quarterback. Fantasy managers also saw this, with Nix finishing between seventh and ninth in overall, pass, rush and short-pass FPPG. Nix was superb in the red zone, placing tied for fifth in touchdown passes despite ranking 11th in red zone pass attempts. Denver returns all five starting offensive linemen, a group that ranked second in pass pressure rate allowed last year. The improvements to the ground game should augment the Broncos' passing prowess. Payton will get very creative with Evan Engram's usage in this offense, thus providing Nix with a potential matchup advantage on many occasions. Downside: The receiving corps outside of Courtland Sutton and Engram is unproven. Relying too heavily on those two could be a big issue if Engram has another injury-shortened season. Denver's rushing attack is a work in progress. Most of Nix's rushing production occurred on scramble plays, so defenses that spy him can limit his rushing yardage total, which is partially why Nix rushed for fewer than 10 yards on seven occasions last year. The three matchup categories don't offer much in terms of upside potential. Advertisement Overall: Nix has proven he is capable of QB1 production. The issue is that the competition at the QB position is incredibly fierce, and Nix has downside elements that hurt his relative value. Rate him as a reliable low-end QB1. Draft strategy: He's a seventh- or eighth-round value who will go earlier than that in many drafts. Upside: Purdy didn't quite live up to the excellence of the 2023 season, where he led the league in eight standard or advanced metric categories, but he still achieved some success. He was a top 11 quarterback in total FPPG, rush FPPG and vertical FPPG. To do that in a season where the 49ers' offense dealt with major injuries is a testament to Purdy's talents. Getting Christian McCaffrey back at full strength (as early reports indicate) is a massive upgrade for this offense. The re-signing of George Kittle keeps the 49ers' pass-catching talent at a very high level. The matchup points total is unmatched. Downside: The past two years make it clear that Purdy will be hard-pressed to obtain 500 pass attempts in this offense. The same players injured last year have durability concerns that could lead to missed time this year (Brandon Aiyuk could start the season on the PUP list). The offensive line depth is lacking, so any injury could hamper this group. Purdy is one of the most interception-prone quarterbacks in the NFL. Outside of Aiyuk, the wide receivers are talented yet inconsistent. There is only one green-rated fireworks matchup all season long. Overall: When everything went well for Purdy in 2023, he ended up with a No. 6 ranking. When things didn't go so well for the 49ers in 2024, Purdy ranked 13th. This year's ranking splits the difference and places him at the border of the QB1/QB2 level. Draft strategy: The tail end of QB1s come off draft boards in Round 8. Upside: Love was one of only four QBs in the top six in vertical and stretch-vertical FPPG last year. He did this despite suffering through injuries to his knee and groin, which speaks well to his grit. The Packers' long passing could be even better this year with the addition of first-round speedster Matthew Golden. Green Bay already had the deepest roster of WR/TE talent before drafting Golden and third-round wideout Savion Williams. A healthy Love should vastly improve upon last year's dismal No. 27 ranking in QB run FPPG and a No. 16 ranking in short-pass FPPG. The vaulted matchup and fireworks points totals augur for the Packers to have many high-scoring games this year. Advertisement Downside: The free-agent signing of 325-pound Aaron Banks and drafting of 335-pound Anthony Belton show the Packers are building an offensive line to avoid those high-scoring games. A greater emphasis on power rushing could reduce Love's short-yardage passing chances, making improving upon a No. 18 ranking for passes inside the 10 more difficult. Green Bay may scale back Love's rushing ambitions to preserve his health. He's thrown 22 interceptions the past two seasons. There are five red-rated pass rush matchups on the 2025 schedule. Overall: These elements don't suggest Love will return to his No. 5 ranking from the 2023 season. However, they indicate a likely improvement over last year's No. 17 rankings in both FPPG and overall QB points, earning Love a low-end QB1 rating. Draft strategy: The fantasy community is viewing Love through a 2024 prism and thus predicting another mid-tier QB2 showing, which doesn't match his low-end QB1 ranking here, so Love can be an excellent value pick in Rounds 9-10. Upside: Prescott has a track record of fantasy scoring success, having finished in the top 10 in QB scoring in three of the past six seasons. He's only one season removed from arguably the best passing campaign of his career. The combination of CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Jake Ferguson gives the Cowboys one of the best starting WR/TE trios in the business. The improvements in the running game should help take some coverage pressure away. HC Brian Schottenheimer indicates the Dallas offense will have a lot more motion, shifts and play-action plays, all of which can help Prescott's per-play production. Downside: Schottenheimer's dad was a run-first coach. Schottenheimer's mentor (Pete Carroll) was a run-first coach. Schottenheimer's OC (Klayton Adams) has a run-centric background. Combine that with Jerry Jones noting that Schottenheimer bit his lip regarding the Cowboys' pass-centric approach under Mike McCarthy and Dallas revamping its entire RB corps, and it overwhelmingly suggests this will be a ground-based offense. Prescott had mediocre FPPG totals in overall passing, short passing and the run game last year. Prescott has missed 26 games due to injury over the past five years, and the schedule is largely unfavorable. Overall: The Dallas management and coaching staff are wise to use a run-first approach to maximize Prescott's production while limiting his wear and tear. That's great for the team, but not fantasy managers. It drops Prescott to the high end of the QB2 tier. Draft strategy: Prescott is a prime candidate to be drafted above his projected fantasy value. He should be selected in Rounds 9-10, but will be selected earlier quite often. Advertisement Upside: Fields is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in fantasy football. Consider that his 8.9 rush FPPG mark would have ranked second at QB had he posted enough games to be listed as a qualifier. The Jets will be one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL this year. RPOs will be a big part of that, so Fields could end up with a lot of carries this year. There is even talk that New York will use Fields on the tush push play, which could result in a spike in rushing touchdowns. Garrett Wilson and rookie Mason Taylor will provide maximum production on as many as half of Fields' pass attempts. Only one quarterback has a higher matchup points total. Downside: He couldn't keep the Pittsburgh starting job because his passing prowess is unacceptable. Fields would have ranked 29th in short-pass FPPG, 30th in vertical FPPG and 34th in stretch-vertical FPPG had he played enough games to qualify. It's not as if Pittsburgh had terrible downfield targets, because Russell Wilson ranked in the top four in vertical and stretch-vertical FPPG after replacing Fields. The Jets' new offensive coordinator, Tanner Engstrand, is in his first year as an NFL OC. New York's offensive line can run block, but it leaves something to be desired in pass blocking. The receiving corps behind Wilson and Taylor is mediocre or worse. Overall: When a quarterback can post nearly 9 fantasy points per game on the ground, he doesn't need much passing production to be a QB1. Fields' aerial talents don't quite get him to that level, but he's just a step or so behind it. Draft strategy: The QB1 class and top of the QB2 class won't be cleared off draft boards until at least Round 9. Consider taking Fields at any point after that. Upside: Michigan has had its share of quality quarterbacks (including Tom Brady) over the years. Keep that in mind when noting McCarthy is the Wolverines' career leader in interception rate, completion percentage, pass efficiency and TD-to-INT ratio. HC Kevin O'Connell knows how to build game plans to get the most out of his quarterback's talents. The Vikings may have the most improved offensive line in the league. Few, if any, teams have a receiving trio the equal of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. McCarthy showcased some planned rush and scramble ability at Michigan, both of which will be needed in Minnesota. No team has a better fireworks point total, with nearly half of the season comprising green-rated matchups. Downside: He's essentially a rookie starter. The upgraded offensive line could be used for run blocking, considering that Minnesota now has the makings of a platoon backfield with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. O'Connell may also decide to rely on the run to help avoid what could be a considerable amount of scoreboard shootouts versus those high-octane offenses. Considering the entire interior was revamped, the offensive line could take some time to gel. Addison could end up missing time due to a possible suspension. Overall: A Minnesota quarterback has finished in the top nine in QB points in two of the past three seasons (Sam Darnold ranked ninth in 2024; Kirk Cousins ranked eighth in 2022). Since those were veterans and McCarthy is a first-year starter, this projection doesn't quite generate QB1 value, but McCarthy is just outside that tier. Advertisement Draft strategy: McCarthy could be one of the best QB value picks. He's apt to post borderline QB1 value for what should be a Round 10-11 draft pick. Upside: He didn't get on the field much until Week 6 last year, but after that, Maye showed why he was the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Maye ranked 13th in FPPG in Weeks 6-17 and was only 27 points away from a top-10 finish in that time frame, and he did it with a lousy offense. New England tried to make improvements this offseason. The Patriots added rookies TreVeyon Henderson and Kyle Williams, veteran receivers Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins, and a ton of offensive line talent (including a great left tackle in rookie Will Campbell). Last year's numbers show Maye can rush for over 500 yards in a full season. Josh McDaniels returning as OC is an upgrade, and the schedule is generally helpful. Downside: Maye had some of the worst fantasy passing numbers in 2024. He ranked 27th in short-pass FPPG, 32nd in vertical FPPG and 23rd in stretch-vertical FPPG. Diggs is coming off an injury and has already had a notable off-field issue. Williams is a rookie, and Hollins has caught more than 31 passes only once in seven NFL seasons. The offensive line could be in flux early on, given the personnel overhaul. HC Mike Vrabel's Tennessee teams finished higher than 30th in pass attempts once — and even then, it was 25th. This team could go the run-heavy route with Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson. Overall: Maye's fantasy value will tend to go as his rushing value goes. Vrabel and McDaniels will get full utilization of that skill set. Add that to what should be improved passing numbers (even if 'improved' is a relative term in this case), and Maye gets a mid-tier QB2 ranking. Draft strategy: He will be one of the many mid-tier QB2s taken in Rounds 10-11. Upside: Jim Harbaugh is a run-first coach, but even he wants to throw the ball more than the Chargers did last year. That's why Los Angeles drafted Tre Harris and Oronde Gadsden. The vertical game doesn't need much improvement, given that Herbert ranked second in stretch-vertical FPPG and fifth in vertical FPPG. There is developmental receiving upside on the roster with Ladd McConkey, who was good as a rookie and can be better this year, and Quentin Johnston. This offensive system helped Herbert set career lows in interceptions and interception rate. Herbert has tallied 200+ rush yards and 2+ rush touchdowns in all but one of his five NFL seasons. Downside: Harbaugh may want to call more pass plays, but he will never operate a pass-heavy offense. Even with the additions of Harris and Gadsden, this receiving corps needs a lot of improvement to get to par. The offensive line was mediocre last season and could be a work in progress this year. There are only two green-rated fireworks matchups all season, and the campaign begins with three red-rated pass rush matchups in Weeks 1-5. Advertisement Overall: A Harbaugh offense will never get a quarterback to post substantial fantasy numbers on quantity alone. Quality is required, and this offense doesn't have enough of it, so Herbert rates as a mid-tier QB2. Draft strategy: Herbert is in the ninth-to-tenth-round range this year. Upside: The Jaguars' new coaching staff is looking for a reset for Lawrence. They've got a lot to work with. Before last year, Lawrence had missed only one game in his NFL career. He's posted top-12 vertical and stretch-vertical numbers before and was just outside of those ranges in last year's debacle of a season. This offense won't use him on many planned rushes, but Lawrence is still a productive scrambler and doesn't shy away from goal-line work. Few teams can match the pass-catching talents of Brian Thomas and rookie Travis Hunter. The offensive line additions could turn a weakness into a strength (or at least no longer a weakness). Downside: Adjusting to a new offensive system requires time. Depending on how the preseason plays out, the offensive line will likely have at least two new starters and could have more changes. Hunter and Thomas have one combined NFL season between them. New OC Grant Udinski is only 29 years old and has never been a full-time OC. Lawrence has dealt with injuries for two straight years, which could be a big issue behind a revolving door offensive line. There is only one green-rated fireworks matchup all year, and the season ends with five red-rated vertical coverage matchups in Weeks 12-17. Overall: The Jaguars are going all out to build a strong offense around Lawrence. That's a long-term plus, but fantasy managers can't count on that upgrade occurring in the short term, leading to a mid-tier QB2 ranking for Lawrence. Draft strategy: There won't be much clamoring to select Lawrence, so he should be available as late as Rounds 10-11. Upside: The 24.98-point total Penix posted in Week 18 shows there is a high ceiling here if things go well. Penix was the most prolific passer in college football in his 2023 campaign at Washington, leading the nation in passing yards and passing yards per game. Penix also scored seven rushing touchdowns in two years as the Huskies quarterback, so he has a path to marginal rush production. The Falcons have above-average talent at WR/TE and return four offensive line starters, which could lead to an aerial boon since stopping Bijan Robinson will be the primary goal of most defensive coordinators. The passing matchup points total is near the league's top, giving Penix ample favorable matchup opportunities. Advertisement Downside: Kirk Cousins had these top-flight pass-catching talents last year, and he ranked 27th in stretch-vertical FPPG and 23rd in short-pass FPPG. Robinson was second in rushes inside the 10-yard line last season and is on track to mimic that trend in 2025, so Penix isn't likely to get many goal-line passing opportunities. Penix did next to nothing on the ground outside of the rushing touchdowns in college. This offense will take a similar hands-off rushing approach. Cousins is still on the roster, so he could be a relief pitcher if Penix struggles. Atlanta has the highest rush defense matchup points total, a factor that could reduce the Falcons' passing volume. Overall: He can be a high-volume passer, but this is a Bijan Robinson-centric offense. Combine that with this being Penix's first full year as a starter and the limited rush volume, and Penix is a midrange QB2. Draft strategy: Penix is rated higher here than at most outlets and is a potentially good ROI pick in Rounds 12-13. Upside: Few fantasy quarterbacks were more productive in the passing game last year. Tagovailoa ranked sixth in overall FPPG and fourth in short-pass FPPG. He has tallied strong vertical and stretch-vertical numbers in the past, making a turnaround from last year's horrible downfield passing pace (30th in vertical FPPG) possible. There may not be a more talented wide receiver combination than Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. New Miami tight end Darren Waller provides even more downfield receiving skills. HC Mike McDaniel is one of the most innovative play callers around. The high pass rush points could help Tagovailoa stretch the field vertically, as will the very high matchup points total. Downside: McDaniel switched this offense from a vertical scheme to a horizontal one because he wanted to keep Tagovailoa healthy — a major emphasis given the breadth and severity of Tua's many head injuries over the years. The Miami offensive line has as many question marks this year as last, so short passing may again be the modus operandi. The injury issue has another downside: eliminating almost all of Tagovailoa's rush value (30th in rush FPPG in 2024). Tagovailoa is one of the most fumble-prone quarterbacks. This team could fire McDaniel during the season if things go south. Overall: Unless or until Tagovailoa returns to being the great vertical passer he's been in past seasons, his fantasy value simply cannot go much higher than mid-tier QB2. Draft strategy: He'll generally move off draft boards in Rounds 11-12. Advertisement Upside: Stroud led the league in stretch-vertical FPPG in his 2023 rookie season and was third in vertical FPPG that year. Getting back to that level will be the goal for new OC Nick Caley. Stroud won't lack for a receiving corps to do this. Nico Collins was fourth in vertical PPR PPG in 2024, and Dane Brugler's 'The Beast' NFL Draft Guide indicates second-round pick Jayden Higgins' game is 'similar to what Nico Collins put on tape at Michigan.' Houston also added Christian Kirk to upgrade at slot wide receiver. Stroud will never be a great rusher, but he is capable of much more than his 1.14 rush FPPG from last season. Downside: Houston is basically starting from scratch at offensive line. There are only two returning starters in that group, and one of those players is changing positions. The Texans also have an offensive line coach whose NFL experience is limited to being a co- or assistant offensive line coach. Add that to the OC change, and this offense could take some time to get in sync. Higgins is a work in progress. Stroud didn't regress last year; he collapsed. He had the fourth-lowest stretch-vertical FPPG and was 25th in vertical FPPG. The schedule is an impediment. Overall: If the Texans were as good at the offensive line as they are at receiver, it would be easy to grant Stroud a QB1 grade. With that group in flux (or even worse), Stroud has to be rated as a low-end QB2. Draft strategy: The quality depth at the quarterback position means fantasy managers don't have to reach here. It's why Stroud should not be taken any earlier than Round 11. Upside: If the move from Cooper Kupp to Davante Adams provides the expected upgrade, the Rams' passing attack will greatly improve, maybe even enough to shift Stafford back into the top 10 in passing FPPG, a must for his fantasy starter viability. Los Angeles had quality pass-blocking numbers last year and will bring back four starters and a former starter. Sean McVay will get the most out of Puka Nacua and Adams, but he will also dial up creative plays to vertical threat Tutu Atwell and a talented tight end tandem of Tyler Higbee and rookie Terrance Ferguson. Stafford has an incredible ability to fight through injury, and the pass rush matchup points total is a notable plus. Downside: Stafford is 37 years old and has taken more than his share of hits. That wear and tear will eventually overcome his moxie to keep playing. Adams may not be much of an upgrade over Kupp. If the passing game doesn't upgrade notably, Stafford may end up with the same No. 18 ranking in pass FPPG that he had last year. That's a huge problem since he essentially adds zero on the ground. Stafford has rushed for fewer than 75 yards in six of the past seven seasons and has scored one rushing touchdown since 2016. If those pass and rush trends repeat in 2025, it could lead to another No. 27 ranking in QB FPPG for Stafford, and the matchup points total is about as low as it can get. Overall: His upside path can get to mid-tier QB2 status, but that is so reliant on the passing game that it puts Stafford at a disadvantage compared to other QB2 candidates, which is one of the main reasons Stafford ends up near the bottom of this tier. Advertisement Draft strategy: The turn from QB2 to QB3 usually hits around Rounds 11-12. Upside: Young was on a tear in the final third of the 2024 season, ranking ninth in QB FPPG in Weeks 12-18. He had three games with 23+ points during that span and five games with 16.5+ points. A big part of the late-season production surge occurred on the ground, with Young scoring five rushing touchdowns in those seven games. That ground prowess led to a No. 7 ranking in rush FPPG and echoed his Alabama rushing numbers. Getting Tetairoa McMillan, the highest-rated WR prospect in the 2025 draft, could provide an immediate pass upgrade. The offensive line returns all five starters, boding well for quality pass blocking when combined with the favorable pass rush points total. Downside: Young is one of the smallest quarterbacks in the NFL, listed at 5-foot-10 and 204 pounds. Last year was the second consecutive season that Young had dismal passing numbers. He ranked 33rd in short-pass FPPG, 26th in stretch-vertical FPPG and 22nd in vertical FPPG. McMillan is a rookie, Xavier Legette looks like a bust, and Adam Thielen is old. Combine that with Carolina not possessing a quality tight end, and the Panthers' receiving corps could be mediocre or worse. There are only three green-rated fireworks matchups on the schedule. Overall: It's tough to bank on a third of a season, but Young has done enough to warrant inclusion at the bottom of the QB2 tier. Draft strategy: The end of the QB2 tier usually leaves draft boards in Rounds 11-12. Upside: One area that stood out for Rodgers last year was his stretch-vertical numbers. He ranked ninth in stretch-vertical FPPG and had as many touchdowns at that level as Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield. With the Steelers adding DK Metcalf to the receiving mix, Rodgers should be able to replicate that downfield success. Rodgers was also ninth in short-pass FPPG, showing he still has mastery of percentage passes. The combination of Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth may give Rodgers the best tight end group he's ever played with. Pittsburgh has a superb offensive line. The fireworks points total is advantageous, featuring six green-rated matchups in Weeks 7-16. Downside: The stretch-vertical production did not prevent Rodgers from tallying a No. 23 ranking in vertical FPPG, a weakness that led to Rodgers finishing outside of the top 10 in pass FPPG for the second consecutive season that he played in (No. 11 in 2024, No. 15 in 2022). His rushing production has dwindled to next to nothing. Rodgers has now posted a double-digit interception mark for consecutive seasons for the first time in his career. He's 42 and could hit the age wall at any time. This run-centric offense may give Rodgers a low pass attempts ceiling. Three red-rated fireworks matchups and a bye are in Weeks 1-6. Advertisement Overall: Rodgers tallied a high-end QB2 season last year due to New York focusing its offense on his passing skills. Mike Tomlin won't rely on his new QB for various reasons, dropping Rodgers' fantasy value to the border of the QB2/QB3 tier. Draft strategy: Do not draft outside of 2QB/SuperFlex leagues. (Photo of Joe Burrow: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
Indianapolis Star
33 minutes ago
- Indianapolis Star
Who are Indiana football breakout players for 2025? A 'freak,' a transfer and a bunch on defense
LAS VEGAS — Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti told reporters at Big Ten media days the program has a 'lot of nice pieces' in place going into the 2025 season. The Hoosiers brought back multiple All-Americans on defense (Aiden Fisher and Mikail Kamara along with one of the Big Ten's best corners (D'Angelo Ponds). On offense, they returned one of the country's most productive receivers (Elijah Sarratt) and three starting offensive linemen (Carter Smith, Bray Lynch and Drew Evans). That list doesn't include any of the standout transfers Cignetti added — 3,000-yard passer Fernando Mendoza is garnering a ton of preseason buzz — who have a chance to help the program build on the historic success last season. Those are names most fans know, but there's plenty of potential breakout candidates on the roster beyond those known veterans. At Big Ten media days, three of IU's top returners — Kamara, Fisher and Sarratt — identified players on their side of the ball with the biggest breakout potential: Indiana football linebacker Rolijah Hardy is a 'freak' Fisher's answer is the same as it was at the end of last season when he anticipated a bright future for fellow linebacker Rolijah Hardy, one of the only true freshman on the team last year to have a prominent role outside of special teams. Hardy remains attached at the hip to Fisher as he eyes replacing Jailin Walker in the starting lineup for the Hoosiers. 'He's developing really well, mentally, his mindset has shifted from being that young guy to leading the room, which is really good going forward,' Fisher said. 'I think the game has slowed down for him." The part of his game that didn't need any work was his elite physical tools. 'He's a freak,' Fisher said. 'He can run, he can jump, he can lift. Everything you want from a linebacker, he can do physically.' Hardy was a multi-sport athlete at Lakeland (Florida) High School who earned All-State honors in basketball. Fisher can attest that Hardy hasn't lost a step on the hardwood. 'Bro is pretty good,' Fisher said, with a laugh. 'We did a three-on-three last year, and he stole the show." Indiana football receiver Makai Jackson ready to flip the switch Makai Jackson didn't get to show what he was capable of during spring camp thanks to a lingering hamstring, but his teammate said it's only a matter of time before he makes his presence felt in Bloomington. 'I know what he can do,' Sarratt said. 'I've seen it with my eyes. He's looked great in the summer, and his body been keeping up." Jackson earned third-team All-Sun Belt honors in 2024 with 46 catches for 745 yards (16.2 yards per catch) and five touchdowns. He closed out the season with back-to-back 100-yard performances against James Madison and Georgia Southern. He landed at Appalachian State after spending playing alongside Sarratt as a freshman for St. Frances (Pennsylvania). He's a big play threat — he had 12 catches of 20 yards or more through the air (tied for sixth in the FBS) for 419 yards last season — capable of playing at outside receiver and in the slot. "He's a gamer, once he get in that game or the ball gets in his hands, the switch flips,' Sarratt said. Indiana football defensive end Mikail Kamara surrounded by impact players Kamara cheated a little bit, but he rattled off a long list of breakout candidates on the defensive line that included both underclassmen and veteran transfers. 'I feel like anyone on our defensive line could do it,' Kamara said. He started by hyping up sophomore Mario Landino, a former 3-star signee out of Emmaus High School in Pennsylvania. He got his feet wet last year — he had six tackles, one forced fumble, seven quarterback pressures while playing 140 snaps as a true freshman. 'I'm expecting huge strides from him,' Kamara said. 'He put on about 20 pounds, he's still twitchy and still looks really good.' Indiana has a wide-open competition at the defensive end spot opposite Kamara with Landino competing for playing time with fellow sophomore Daniel Ndukwe and spring transfers Kellan Wyatt and Stephen Daley. Wyatt and Daley hit the ground running while taking part in IU's summer workouts. "They have acclimated really well,' Kamara said. 'I know once we get to camp I'll show them a little bit more specifics as far as the scheme and how they can manipulate what we got going on. Just raw talent? Stephen is a freak, he's athletic, just crazy. Kellan is sharp up top, he can really move well, he's quick and fast. I'm excited to have a good three-man rotation." Kamara is also excited about IU's new duo at defensive tackle, Hosea Wheeler and Tyrique Tucker, who are looking to replace James Carpenter and CJ West. Tucker backed up Carpenter going back to their days at James Madison while Wheeler was a dominant run stuffer last season for Western Kentucky. 'Tyrique, he played a lot of games last year, I expect a lot out of him,' Kamara said. 'Hosea transferred in from WKU, and works his butt off. I just feel it could be a different guy on any given day (making plays).'
