US and EU reach trade deal after Trump meets EU chief
The US and EU have just reached a trade deal, after talks between President Trump and the EU president Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland. Correspondent Nick Harper spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.
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Otago Daily Times
2 hours ago
- Otago Daily Times
Positive outlook for beef, sheepmeat
More mileage in record beef prices and near-record sheepmeat returns is on the cards with further highs in the marketplace likely next year. A bright global meat and livestock outlook was given by Global Agritrends founding partner Brett Stuart and analyst Simon Quilty in a virtual presentation at the Red Meat Sector Conference in Christchurch. Global beef prices were at record levels in June with global sheepmeat demand prices rising 68% since a November low in 2023, but still off 2021's record returns. Global Agritrends forecasts lamb at $10 a kilogram in August could rise to $10.50/kg in mid-2026. Mr Quilty said the record beef price index at 139.4 in June was at sustainable levels. "We are at the start of this journey, not at the end." He said the sheepmeat sector was a similar story, within a "millisecond" of record prices. Both sectors could expect to reach new high prices next year with sheepmeat first to peak followed by beef, he said. New Zealand was at this stage facing an extra 10% tariff for beef entering the United States from President Donald Trump's tariff policies, zero tariffs into China and 21.6% into Japan, 13.3% into Korea and zero tariffs in Taiwan, Indonesia and other markets. For sheepmeat the only market with tariffs was North America. Mr Stuart said they had been following Mr Trump's policies closely since his election to advise clients disrupted daily in their trade. "There's probably never been a more extraordinary time in the global beef and sheep industry," Mr Stuart said. He said exporters were probably best to panic slowly as Mr Trump's tariff "bark" had been much worse than the bite. "Let's see how this plays out. Early in 2025 we had a lot of Canadians that were terrified as they export six million pigs to America and over a million cattle to America every year. They were terrified what tariffs would do to disrupt their industry and ultimately they never received tariffs." He said Mr Trump had been largely unwilling to "lay the wood" to people. This was seen by his offering extensions, a tariff pause and continuing to push deadlines out in response to opposition in his home country. The bulk of key agricultural markets in Canada, Mexico, Japan and Korea are tariff free. This could change on the August 1 deadline and while world leaders wonder if there will be another pause Mr Trump has said there will be no more extensions. China's ban on US beef remains since March and Canada's retaliation tariff on US pork continued. Mr Stuart said trade tariff talk had been very quiet for Australia and New Zealand and perhaps the best strategy was to avoid Mr Trump's gaze. Brazil was the No 1 supplier of 175 million pounds of beef to the US in May, but was facing Mr Trump's proposed 50% tariff on all of its imports on top of a 26.4% tariff on its beef. "There's also the potential for retaliation against US agriculture ... so agricultural becomes a real key pawn in the global trade war." As Mr Trump's tariff agenda moves forward to an August 1 deadline, Global Agritrends' identified risks include Mexico potentially retaliating against US pork, dairy, poultry and beef. Other retaliation against US exports was possible from Canada, while Japan and Korea are considered unlikely to respond as they could not survive tariffs of about 30% proposed by Mr Trump. Potential wins for the US include the possibility of Japan trimming a tariff at 23% currently for US beef, and Australia's decades-long restrictions on US pork and beef being lifted, while new access agreements have been made with Philippines, Vietnam, United Kingdom and others. "Thus far I would have to say Trump does not have a lot of success to show. He's made a lot of noise and a lot of threats." China's ban on US and Canada beef had left only Australia as a major source of grain-fed beef as it scrambled for grain-fed beef supply. As a result China had become the largest beef importer by a wide margin, up 25% this year. Mr Quilty said the concern for Australia and New Zealand was Brazil would fill this supply as it could step up production quickly. Global Agritrends still sees higher prices for New Zealand could result, with Brazil unlikely to fill our other markets. The risk of China putting in a global import quota instead of country by country at the end of a safeguard investigation in December alleging imported beef harmed their domestic beef prices had yet to pan out. That would be to the detriment of Australia and New Zealand he said. The 2025-26 year was likely to bring the tightest beef supplies and record prices as restocking begins in key nations, with prices moderating in 2027-28.
Otago Daily Times
2 hours ago
- Otago Daily Times
Tariff ‘jungle' growing back: expert
A trade expert warns the tariff "jungle" is growing back as nations grapple with United States President Donald Trump's fast approaching tariff deadline. Many US trade partners face hefty tariff increases in the fallout, including close allies such as Japan and Korea. Mr Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs have New Zealand exporters watching how it will play out for them, their trading partners and the wider marketplace on the August 1 deadline. Another concern is his trade policy might encourage more nations to step up protectionism. Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade's trade and economic deputy secretary Vangelis Vitalis told meat professionals at the Red Meat Sector Conference in Christchurch the uncertainty was a real challenge for exporters looking to trade with the US. He said nobody really knew what was happening in day-to-day international policy. Research showed trade uncertainty was worth the equivalent of at least a 10% to 12% tariff, he said, "The jungle is definitely growing back. We do face a really challenging and turbulent external environment and it's not just the US, although that's a major factor at the moment for uncertainty. "The challenges are real. All of the big players are thinking whether these [free trade agreement] rules work for them any more and we place a premium on these rules." A baseline tariff applies to almost every nation, including New Zealand, of 10%, with auto parts at a 25% tariff and aluminium 50%. The 10% tariff is on top of existing tariffs such as about 16% or 18% New Zealand exporters already face sending frozen vegetables to the US. "Over the last two to three weeks the president has been announcing additional tariffs. He's extended the pause to August 1 and so we know a whole series of tariffs may be imposed at that time, although we also know the president does tend to extend those delays as well so, again, lots of uncertainty." He said the known certainties were the US was striking some deals, including with Vietnam eliminating all of its tariffs in exchange for a 20% tariff. Some countries not concluding deals had the threat of additional tariffs being placed on them, including 25% on Japan and Korea, while and Brazil was being hit with a 50% tariff on the deadline. Mr Vitalis said the concern for all nations facing a 10% tariff was this might increase to 15%-20%. That would really concern New Zealand wine, red meat and other exporters, he said. A lot of official engagement was being carried out in Washington to talk to counterparts and listen closely to build a picture of Mr Trump's trade direction. "Again we don't actually know what he's going to do, but he's certainly suggesting there are going to be further increases out there." Mr Vitalis said ministerial leaders and officials were taking a structured, calm and thorough approach to the coming challenges. New Zealand wanted to protect its interest in the US as it was our second-most important export destination and the tension between it and China was being followed closely, he said. The option he favoured for the global trade turbulence was to negotiate new free trade agreements and expand existing agreements as explaining the logic of global economic damage from tariffs was not working. Another focus of New Zealand's strategy was pushing back against non-tariff barriers, worth an estimated $22.6b in the Asia-Pacific region alone, and protectionism, he said. Dairy giant Fonterra was modelling trade implications from tariff hikes and the dynamics between the US and China. Fonterra trade strategy manager Justine Aroll said the uncertain trading marketplace was the new normal for the co-op exporting to 100 markets globally. One of the silver linings was agricultural exporters were familiar with a protectionist and challenging trade environment and had built up resilience in their businesses, she said. "Like other New Zealand exporters, our product is facing the additional 10% tariff into the US and for us we are finding our way through that." A concern was the disruption to the global dairy market, the reaction of other countries and the implication of US deals with other countries, she said. Special agricultural trade envoy Hamish Marr said uncertainty was the new certainty. "We have been living in a world of globalisation for many years and now it seemed we are not in globalisation — we are in regionalisation." Countries were more focused on food security and New Zealand's strong reputation would mean it was well positioned to navigate through the uncertain times, he said. New Zealand International Business Forum executive director Felicity Roxburgh said governments around the world were shifting from economics to security for supply chains and critical materials, including red meat.
RNZ News
15 hours ago
- RNZ News
Singles are falling out of love with dating apps
life and society 16 minutes ago Singles are falling out of love with online dating apps, meaning a return to real world introductions, and for some younger daters that's a totally new experience. Match group, the US tech company that owns Tinder, Hinge and OK Cupid saw a 5% drop in paid users in the first quarter of this year. Relationship expert Jess Carbino, who was the sociologist for the dating apps Tinder and Bumble said Gen Z is using apps less. She spoke to Lisa Owen.
