The 1600: Manufacturing Consent
Did everyone have a nice and relaxing weekend? Sure is nice to unplug for a couple days. Now to take a big sip of coffee as I check the news...
I think it'll be helpful to organize our thoughts this morning into two buckets: what have we learned from Saturday's strikes on Iran and what are the various ways things could escalate, or not.
The topline lesson, I think, is something we kinda already knew: Donald Trump calls the shots, and American policy is whatever he wants it to be at any given moment, often based on whoever advised him last. That's how you get to a place where a commander-in-chief who ran on an explicitly anti-war message is now calling to MIGA (Make Iran Great Again).
When you hear people like JD Vance, Pete Hegseth and Marco Rubio say that an American bombing run over Iran is not about regime change—and then the president immediately contradicts them—it just shows that none of these guys have any real say in anything. Their job is to go on TV and defend the boss. Watching Vance in particular, a guy whose claim to fame is writing a bestselling book about the importance of nation-building at home versus overseas, try on these different justifications for a new war is really something. Here was the VP on NBC yesterday:
"I empathize with Americans who are exhausted after 25 years of foreign entanglements in the Middle East. I understand the concern, but the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents."
Not exactly reassuring! (Another lesson: Vance's coronation in 2028 is far from a done deal. Don't underestimate how his heel turn on Iran could hurt him with elements of the MAGA base, at least the "no new wars" wing of it. He is now complicit in the very thing he said he was opposed to doing).
The big question, though, is what comes next. Iran will retaliate in some way. The good news is the mullahs have been seriously degraded militarily, thanks to Israel, and are looking pretty isolated out there. Neither Russia nor China, theoretically their big allies, appear interested in helping them out. That doesn't mean Tehran won't launch strikes against the 40K American troops in the region or, as NBC is reporting, consider activating sleeper cells within the US. I'll try not to think about that as I go to my job in the friggin' WORLD TRADE CENTER this week. Ever notice how the Americans most at risk of terrorism never get a say in the wars that end up birthing said terror? I digress.
There's this concept in media theory known as "manufacturing consent," which I believe was coined by Noam Chomsky. The idea is that the government and mass media, together, create these conditions to manipulate the public into "consenting" to whatever policy idea the governing elite want at any given moment. You see it everywhere, but it's remarkable the speed at which it happens now. It took Bush & Co. more than a year to manufacture consent for the war in Iraq. Today, it doesn't even take a month.
Think about just the last couple of weeks. First we were talking about the US supporting Israel air defenses. Then it was, "OK maybe we'll join but only to drop this one bomb on this one facility." That turned into six bunker-busters, plus two other targets. Now we're at the stage of the president openly floating the idea of a boots-on-the-ground war to take out the regime. And the MAGA faithful are following it hook, line and sinker, because the only thing that actually matters in that movement is fealty to its leader. A YouGov poll from a week ago had just 23% of Republicans in favor of joining the conflict with Iran. That number jumped to 68%, per the same poll, after Saturday. That's some classic consent manufacturing right there.
Look, maybe I am wrong. Maybe this weekend was one-and-done and we really did put the Iranians' nuke program back a decade. Maybe they won't be able to reconstitute and race for a bomb, knowing it's the only way they survive now. Maybe they are so weak that they won't even be able to mount an effective conventional response. Maybe one day democracy really will bloom like wildflowers across the vast deserts of the Middle East, just as the neocons envisioned. But the die is cast now, and Donald Trump owns whatever happens next, good or bad.
The Rundown
The international community ignored Iran's major underground nuclear facility of Fordow for years, Israeli President Isaac Herzog told Newsweek in an exclusive interview following U.S. strikes against three nuclear sites in central Iran. Referencing the former president's words more than a decade-and-a-half ago, Herzog said Barack Obama "exposed" the existence of Fordow, "but then the world let it happen." Read more.
Also happening:
Putin breaks his silence: Vladimir Putin has called the U.S. strikes on Iran an "unprovoked aggression" in his first comments on the military action ordered by President Donald Trump. The Russian president said Moscow was making efforts to help Tehran, as he sat down for talks on Monday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Read more .
Vladimir Putin has called the U.S. strikes on Iran an "unprovoked aggression" in his first comments on the military action ordered by President Donald Trump. The Russian president said Moscow was making efforts to help Tehran, as he sat down for talks on Monday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. . Trump touts "obliteration" of Iran sites: President Donald Trump said "monumental damage" was done to Iran's nuclear sites citing satellite imagery after Tehran disputed whether the strikes on the facilities had dealt a knockout blow to the Islamic Republic's atomic program. Read more.
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