D.C. storms trigger flooding rains, violent winds before dramatic skies
The storms — fueled by the heat and humidity of a sweltering summer day — barreled through the region between about 5 and 8 p.m. Unlike the storms on Tuesday — which were intense near the Chesapeake Bay but rather tame near D.C., Wednesday's packed their greatest fury in the Beltway area. Trees came down in Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria in Virginia; D.C.; and western Prince George's County in Maryland. Floodwaters also raced through parts of Alexandria and D.C.
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Yahoo
44 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Warnings gave 3 hours, 21 minutes to save lives in Texas. What happened then remains unclear.
The National Weather Service's West Gulf River Forecast Center in Forth Worth helps other offices like the Austin/San Antonio office predict floods. (Photo by Desiree Rios for The Texas Tribune). Three hours and 21 minutes. That's how much time passed from when the National Weather Service sent out its first flash flood warning for part of Kerr County to when the first flooding reports came in from low-lying water crossings. The weather service says that first warning triggered one of many automatic alerts to cell phones and weather radios, telling people in the area of the danger. But if any local officials got those warnings, and if so, whether they activated in any meaningful way in that 3 hours and 21 minutes remains a black box. County officials have not responded to requests for interviews and have not said at public press conferences what efforts they took when the flooding threat turned from possible to imminent in the middle of the night. At those press conferences, Kerrville's city manager has repeatedly said they are focused on search and rescue, rather than answer questions about their response. 'We knew there was a flash flood warning,' Gov. Greg Abbott said at a press conference on Tuesday. 'No one would know that would be a 30-foot-high tsunami-ball of water.' NWS officials said they communicated directly with local officials during the night of the floods, but did not specify when. In some cases, they said, calls went to voicemail. Kerrville's mayor said he was unaware of the flooding until around 5:30 a.m., more than four hours after that first warning, when the city manager called and woke him up. Warnings didn't go up on county Facebook pages until around the same time — when the Guadalupe River had already risen rapidly and pushed out of its banks around Hunt and was making its way toward the county seat of Kerrville. Weather experts say that — from the outside at least — weather service forecasters appear to have done most everything right as the river rose with astonishing speed, blew past its previous record level and blasted through summer camps, RV parks, homes and campgrounds. It's the kind of situation that meteorologists warn trainees about, the sort of nightmare scenario some refer to as a silent killer. A holiday weekend that brings out-of-town visitors to the area known as 'Flash Flood Alley.' The worst of the danger arrived in the dark, while people slept. The river claimed more than 90 lives in Kerr County, where many people were still missing more than four days later. The weather service on Thursday afternoon put out a flood watch, which is a specific threat designation that means the conditions are present for a flood to happen. 'That far ahead of an event like this, that's the most you can do,' said Bob Henson, a meteorologist and journalist with Yale Climate Connections. And the agency issued increasingly urgent warnings through the night, which should have given most people enough time to escape death if they received and understood them, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources. Questions remain about whether people along the river had cell service to get the push alerts, had alerts enabled on their phones, or were even awake to heed them. Had they been warned of the coming flood, many people could have walked in the rainy darkness to higher ground. 'This really does appear to be a case where had there been even a modest acknowledgement of the level of danger that was predicted by the weather service, I don't think much of the scope of loss of life would have happened,' Swain said in a public video call Monday. Emergency officials across Central Texas had reasons to pay attention to the skies well before the deadly flooding occurred and the July 4 holiday weekend got into full swing. Federal forecasters issued a flood watch for a swath of the state at 1:18 p.m. Thursday, including for Kerr County, where at least 30 children would die. Nineteen other people have been confirmed dead in other counties from the widespread floods as of late Tuesday. A flood watch is intended to indicate to local emergency officials and others that they should be on the lookout, weather experts said. Forecasts on Thursday didn't say exactly where the worst rain might fall and how much — because that's very difficult to predict so far ahead, meteorologists said. Where exactly the rain falls can make a big difference in river forecasting. 'I look at flash flood events like this very similarly to tornadoes,' said Alan Gerard, a retired NOAA meteorologist and current CEO of Balanced Weather. 'We can tell you the conditions are favorable … but we can't tell you exactly how strong the tornado is going to be and whether or not it's going to hit your house.' Kerr County is part of the Texas Hill Country, where the limestone hills lack deep layers of soil to absorb water. Rivers can rise shockingly fast. Deadly flood events have happened there repeatedly in the past. The Texas Division of Emergency Management had activated rescue teams and bumped up its readiness level Thursday to bring more help on board. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said the regional director for TDEM personally called local officials to discuss the brewing storm. A state rescue task force, military vehicles and aircraft were stationed in the region, mostly in San Antonio, TDEM Chief Nim Kidd said during a press conference Friday night. But whether Kerr County officials got a call or took any particular action after the July 3 flood watch went out is unclear. At a news conference on Friday as the death toll rose, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly said, 'We didn't know this flood was coming.' Neither Kelly, the county sheriff nor the emergency management coordinator responded to requests for interviews. Part of the problem could be alert fatigue, especially in an area known for frequent flooding. People often receive multiple flood watches that don't result in actual flooding, said Avantika Gori, an assistant professor of civil & environmental engineering at Rice University and flood risk expert. This can lead to complacency, with people thinking, 'It's just another one of those things,' she said. They may also not understand the difference between a watch and warning, Gori said. Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring, 63, who grew up in the city, recalled seeing reports Thursday night of a chance of rain around the time of the July 4 kids' bike parade the next day. A friend warned him heavy rain was possible across a large area, but he didn't feel worried. 'I went outside and looked at the clouds and thought someone is going to get rain, but it's not going to be us,' he said. He said thunder woke him around midnight, and he was glad to see some rain falling. The Hill Country was in a significant drought. More specific warnings, which indicate flooding is occurring or imminent, came later in the night as the forecast developed and data poured in. Extra people were on duty at the weather service office in New Braunfels, said Erica Cei, a weather service spokesperson. At 1:14 a.m., the National Weather Service pushed out its first flash flood warning for central Kerr County, saying that data indicated life-threatening flash flooding was occurring or would begin soon. That message automatically triggered alerts to radios and cell phones, Cei said. At that point, the river had barely started to rise. The river was still within its banks in most places, and the incongruity between the warning and what people saw on the ground could potentially have caused people not to take action, Erik Nielsen, an instructional assistant professor at Texas A&M University, said in an email. It's just one of many challenges of issuing effective warnings that are hard to overcome, he said. People like Valerie Peters, who was staying at a Kerrville RV campsite called Jellystone Park, woke to the rainfall at some point and said she didn't notice anything out of the ordinary. She said she looked at the emergency notifications, shut the sound off and she went back to bed. She had been looking forward to a weekend of painting, karaoke and cornhole tournaments with her family. Luckily, her campsite avoided serious damage. 'We could have died,' Peters said. 'We had no idea how serious this rain was.' For officials in the early morning hours, there was still time to act as the rain pounded. At 4:03 a.m., two hours and 49 minutes after their initial flood warning, federal forecasters warned that the rain had created a flash flood emergency for south-central Kerr County. Weather forecasters only use that term in what the agency says are 'exceedingly rare' cases to indicate that lives are very much at risk. 'This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!' the warning said. The Guadalupe River was rising precipitously. In the nearly three hours since the first warning went out, it had risen 14.3 feet, according to the river level gauge near Hunt, upriver from Kerrville. It would rise another 15.5 feet, according to the data, before the gauge broke. At 4:35 a.m., three hours and 21 minutes after the first warning, the weather service office started to get reports from the Kerr County sheriff's office of low-level flooding, Cei said. The river was still rising. Forecasters pushed out a second flash flood emergency alert at 5:34 a.m., now for east central Kerr County, saying that 'a large and deadly flood wave' was headed down the Guadalupe River. Again, they urged people to get to higher ground immediately. They described the threat of damage as catastrophic. That was about the time the Kerr County Sheriff's Office took to Facebook to warn 'DANGEROUS FLOODING NOW.' On its Facebook page, Kerr County also posted a warning around then that the river was flooding. Kerrville's city manager — who told reporters that he'd been jogging near the river at 3:30 a.m. and saw no signs of flooding — woke the mayor with a phone call around 5:30 a.m. and told him the downtown park where a lot of the July 4th events were planned was under water. Herring said he threw on some clothes and went downtown. He got an alert on his phone from the CodeRED system the county uses at 6 a.m., he said, indicating a flash flood alert or 'something to that effect.' Residents can enroll in the system to get alerts. He said it was the only weather alert he got that morning. Communicating these developing threats as forecasts become more clear is what meteorologists call a 'last mile' problem — and it's long plagued the field. Even as weather service forecasters are issuing warnings, they might have no idea who's listening or monitoring the situation from the other side. 'The big question marks are, who was the National Weather Service able to reach in person and who was able to monitor the automated warnings that went out through cell phones, through email blasts and so forth at 1, 2, 3, 4 a.m.,' said Henson, the meteorologist with Yale Climate Connections. 'And that just comes down to county, local, and even to individual entities like campgrounds.' At National Weather Service weather forecast offices, it falls to the warning coordination meteorologist — in this case Paul Yura, who retired from a decades-long career in April, a few years earlier than he planned — to build relationships with local community members to prepare for events such as this. The White House on Monday defended the forecasting agency in the face of questions about whether nationwide staffing cuts had impacted their work. Two of Mayor Herring's close friends — Jane Ragsdale, director of the Heart O' The Hills camp and Dick Eastland, one of the owners of Camp Mystic — died in the flooding and their deaths have hit him hard. He felt sure both would have checked the weather. 'I wish to God there had been some way to warn them,' he said. Disclosure: Facebook, Rice University and Texas A&M University have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here. This article originally appeared in The Texas Tribune at The Texas Tribune is a member-supported, nonpartisan newsroom informing and engaging Texans on state politics and policy. Learn more at
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Severe thunderstorm risk with very large hail as two instability zones develop
Following Wednesday's severe storms that unleashed golfball-sized hail across parts of the Prairies, another widespread severe weather threat is forecast for Thursday. DON'T MISS: All three Prairie provinces and northwestern Ontario are at risk, as a cold front interacts with high thunderstorm energy and elevated humidity. Key hazards include hail up to 3–4 cm in size, heavy rainfall, and wind gusts exceeding 90 km/h. Golf ball sized hail northwest of Swift Current, Saskatchewan! #skstorm — Braydon Morisseau (@BraydonMoreSo) July 10, 2025 Two areas of instability could trigger severe storms Thursday. You'll want to stay updated on the weather alerts in your area as conditions can change quickly when severe weather hits. The first zone is focused along a cold front advancing through Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. By the late afternoon, severe thunderstorms could develop along the provincial borders, extending as far north as Hudson Bay. As a cold front meets high thunderstorm energy and humidity, there is a risk for very large hail up to 3-4 cm. DON'T MISS: While Winnipeg could see humid conditions feeling like the 40s, storm potential remains uncertain due to limited storm development signals. Confidence is higher for northern Ontario into the evening. The second area spans southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Storms could initiate early in the afternoon near the Alberta-Saskatchewan border before tracking eastward towards Regina by evening. DON'T MISS: These storms may briefly intensify into supercells before transitioning into a linear system, posing risks of 2+ cm hail, heavy rainfall, and damaging winds. Storms may continue into southern Manitoba overnight. Ongoing severe weather risks will linger for Manitoba and northwestern Ontario on Friday under a stalled boundary and high instability. Stay updated on alerts and be sure to check back for the latest weather details across the Prairies. Click here to view the video
Politico
2 hours ago
- Politico
Storms come for weather agencies
Good morning and welcome to Thursday. Federal agencies that monitor and forecast storms got heaps of attention on Capitol Hill Wednesday, as Florida prepares to enter peak hurricane season next month. Questions are pouring in following deadly floods in New Mexico and Texas, where officials are still learning more about what went wrong; late-night alerts calling for evacuations appear to have gone out from the National Weather Service but not from local government officials, CBS News found. But scrutiny is already turning to staff cuts President DONALD TRUMP implemented across the federal government under DOGE, in which workers were fired, given early retirements or voluntary buyouts. The disaster preparedness questions all have implications for storm-prone Florida, whose top officials have insisted the state is ready. On Wednesday, Colorado State University updated its Atlantic storm forecast for this year to 16, projecting one less named storm than they initially said in June. Researchers estimate at least three storms would become major hurricanes with winds that exceed 111 mph, the speed of a Category 3 hurricane. During a Senate confirmation hearing on Wednesday, NEIL JACOBS — who's Trump's nominee to lead the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — pledged that the National Weather Service would be fully staffed if he were to be confirmed. National Weather Service offices are tasked with monitoring storms and sharing that information with the public, but House Democrats say their offices in Florida have 20 to 40 percent fewer staff members than they used to. Six offices are in place throughout the state, with a Mobile, Alabama, office covering some of Florida's counties in the Panhandle. On another side of the equation is disaster response, which is also facing a Trump overhaul. Republicans, including Gov. RON DESANTIS, have said they support giving states more freedom to respond to disasters as Trump has proposed unwinding FEMA. But while Florida manages the ins and outs of response, FEMA is in charge of refunding states for disaster response and preparedness. It also sends in staff to help disaster victims sign up for gift cards, hotel rooms or other temporary housing and provides some reimbursement for low-income people without property insurance to fix their homes. There are still plenty of questions about how these programs would play out under a revamp. A handful of members from Florida held a Zoom call with reporters on Wednesday to warn against cuts Trump proposed in his budget, which would shave off $2.2 billion from NOAA, including for more than a dozen weather and climate labs that help project how strong a hurricane will be. Congress doesn't typically follow a president's budget request, regardless of the administration, but Democrats wanted to underscore how important they thought the agencies were in helping alert people about threats so they could get to safety. 'With these cuts that Trump proposed,' warned Democratic Rep. DEBBIE WASSERMAN SCHULTZ, 'we would be intentionally tying our hands behind our back and blindfolding ourselves.' Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@ ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... ALLIGATOR ALCATRAZ AUDIT — Florida state and federal lawmakers have been invited to tour 'Alligator Alcatraz' after state Democratic legislators got turned away from the Everglades migrant detention facility a week ago. An email notification about the tour went out Wednesday from Florida's Division of Emergency Management, according to a copy obtained by POLITICO. Wasserman Schultz as well as Reps. MAXWELL FROST, DARREN SOTO, LOIS FRANKEL and JARED MOSKOWITZ had already planned to take an unannounced visit to the facility on Saturday, the date the DeSantis administration proposed, they confirmed in a joint statement. 'We do not need permission to conduct lawful oversight,' the group said of the invite. They agreed to attend the tour, but said they'd return again at a later date unannounced. State lawmakers who said they plan on attending include state Rep. DOTIE JOSEPH (D-North Miami) and state Sen. SHEVRIN JONES (D-Miami Gardens), who was turned away when he arrived at 'Alligator Alcatraz' on July 3. Republicans include state Sens. BLAISE INGOGLIA of Spring Hill and JAY COLLINS of Tampa, both DeSantis allies. 'Being on-site is critical to fully understand it, and in turn provide facts to our community,' said Collins, who said he fully supports the creation of the facility. — Kimberly Leonard, Bruce Ritchie, Gary Fineout Related … 'DACA recipient detained at Alligator Alcatraz, attorney says. 'We don't know why,'' by Grethel Aguila of the Miami Herald. SCOTUS WEIGHS IN ON FLORIDA IMMIGRATION LAW — The Supreme Court denied Florida's request to carry out enforcement of a law that makes it illegal for undocumented immigrants to enter Florida, reports POLITICO's Jacob Wendler. The decision doesn't determine whether Florida's law is constitutional, but instead says that it can't be enforced while its constitutionality is being challenged in court. It's the same law that got state Attorney General JAMES UTHMEIER held in civil contempt of court last month, when he told law enforcement officers that he disagreed with a judge's ruling in a way she determined made it appear as though he was telling them to flout a court order. PARTIAL BLOCK ON BALLOTS — 'A federal judge ruled in favor of groups campaigning to place amendments on next year's Florida ballot that sued to stop a new law pushed by DeSantis amid claims of election fraud. But the judge's ruling only blocked some of the law's provisions, and only for the groups involved in the suit,' reports POLITICO's Arek Sarkissian. 'The new law forbids campaign workers and volunteers who are not Florida residents or U.S. citizens from gathering the 800,000 voter-signed petitions required by the state in order to qualify for placement on the ballot. Tallahassee federal court Chief Judge Mark E. Walker wrote in an order handed down late Tuesday that the prohibitions have blocked entire classes of people from the right to free speech.' SAWFISH DIE-OFF — 'Nearly two years after one of the planet's rarest fish began washing up dead in the Lower Keys, scientists investigating the deaths say one thing seems certain: whatever caused it will likely be around for years to come,' reports WLRN's Jenny Staletovich. MAPLE MORTGAGES — Redfin data show that Canadian homebuyers in Orlando and Miami have dropped by just under one-third, as Trump instituted tariffs on the US northern neighbor and relations became more strained, reports Abigail Hasebroock of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The data follows a drop in Canadian tourism, as well. PENINSULA AND BEYOND — ''We don't plan on going anywhere': Planned Parenthood clinics in Central Florida plan to stay open despite defunding threats under Trump,' reports McKenna Schueler of Orlando Weekly. — ''It's just unfair': What end of TPS means for Nicaraguans and Hondurans in the U.S.,' by Verónica Egui Brito and Churchill Ndonwie of the Miami Herald. CAMPAIGN MODE WHAT TO WATCH TODAY — Political parties, candidates and political committees face a midnight deadline to file their quarterly fundraising and spending. JUMPING INTO THE RACE — Former Democratic Rep. STEPHANIE MURPHY, who helped write the Playbook for Democrats' victory in the House in 2018, is running for mayor of Orange County, Steven Hudak of the Orlando Sentinel was first to report. Other Democrats who've announced a run in the blue county include Orange County Clerk of Courts TIFFANY MOORE RUSSELL and Orange County Commissioner MAYRA URIBE. Murphy told the Sentinel: 'One of the important reasons to have strong leadership at the local level is because of what is happening at the federal and state level. I think you need leaders who have demonstrated the ability to work with anybody who's willing to work with them.' 'In her mayoral announcement,' writes Nicole Marcus of POLITICO, 'Murphy cited raising her kids in Orange County, saying she had 'skin in the game.' Much of her announcement video centered around policies for working families, like safer communities and stronger schools.' TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP TODAY — Judge AILEEN CANNON is holding a hearing in her chambers with RYAN ROUTH — who's charged with attempting to assassinate Trump at his golf course in West Palm Beach — over whether he can fire his defense attorneys, KRISTY MILITELLO and RENEE MICHELLE SIHVOLA. Court documents detailing the meeting don't say whether Routh got new representation. On that topic: The Department of Justice charged two people with selling Routh the gun he planned to use. Via Jacob Rosen of CBS News: 'Two defendants — Tina Brown Cooper and Ronnie Jay Oxendine — have pleaded guilty to gun-related charges in federal court, after being indicted in March and arrested in April. Cooper pleaded guilty to firearm trafficking on Monday, and Oxendine pleaded guilty last month to possessing an unregistered firearm after police found a short-barreled shotgun in his storage building.' BYGONES — White House chief of staff SUSIE WILES insisted during a podcast interview this week that disagreements she had with DeSantis are in the past. The comments come roughly a week after Trump called the governor his 'friend' and said they'd moved beyond their bitter 2024 presidential primary rivalry. 'I think he's governing Florida — which is my home state — he's a good governor, and whatever personal differences he had or whatever deficiencies he thought I had are long past my thinking about them,' Wiles, who helped DeSantis win the governor's race in 2018, told New York Post columnist Miranda Devine on Pod Force One. HOUSTON, WE HAVE A LAYOFF — More than 2,000 senior NASA employees are set to leave under a push to reduce staff, show documents obtained by POLITICO's Sam Skove. Broader context: 'The departures follow a proposed White House budget for 2026 that would slash NASA's funding by 25 percent and cut over 5,000 staff. The cuts, if enacted by Congress, would force the agency to operate with the smallest budget and staff since the early 1960s.' Trump also announced Wednesday that Transportation Secretary SEAN DUFFY would become interim NASA administrator. GETTING READY — Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, DEREK BARRS, in an ethics agreement released this week pledged to resign from positions at infrastructure firm HNTB Corporation, a Florida school board and the Sunshine State's highway patrol (where he's been on inactive status as reserve chief), if he's confirmed by the Senate. In the year after doing so, Barrs said he would avoid 'personally and substantially' participating in any matters in which these entities are a party or represent a party, unless he first gets government authorization. (This timeline might be slightly different when it comes to the school board, depending on when Barrs receives his last payment.) — Sam Ogozalek DATELINE D.C. TODAY — Reps. MAXWELL FROST and DARREN SOTO are holding a press conference with community organizers in Orlando today to bash cuts in Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill.' — 'Top Democrats demand apology from Florida Republican Randy Fine over attack on Ilhan Omar,' reports POLITICO's Nicholas Wu. He did not apologize. 'The Hamas Caucus is upset. Boo hoo. I guess they weren't listening when I said the Hebrew Hammer was coming,' Fine wrote on X. — 'Greg Steube backs DeSantis' push to end property taxes,' reports A.G. Gancarski of Florida Politics. ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN LITTRELL TO SUNBATHERS: QUIT PLAYING GAMES — 'Brian Littrell of the Backstreet Boys has brought a lawsuit against a Florida county, claiming authorities have refused to help control trespassers from sunbathing on his private beachfront property,' writes Inga Parkel of the Independent. 'In the suit filed last month and seen by the Daily Mail, the 50-year-old singer makes several claims against the Walton County Sheriff's Office, including that they denied 'numerous requests' to protect the Littrell family from trespassers.' BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Brian Mast … former Rep. Ron Klein ... Miami-Dade County Commissioner and former state Sen. René García … former state Rep. Gary Aubuchon.
