Club World Cup semifinal power rankings: Battle for the trophy intensifies

New York Times

2 days ago

Over the past few weeks, the first-ever 32-team Club World Cup has whittled itself down to a tidy quartet. This isn't a midsummer UEFA Champions League either, with Fluminense giving a non-European challenger against a few of the modern era's usual suspects: Chelsea, Real Madrid and PSG. Are they in position to give Gianni Infantino an unexpected champion to justify this expensive experiment?
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As we near the business end of this opulent summer spectacle, let's make one final projection of which remaining side is most likely to win the first expanded Club World Cup. Unlike our pre-tournament rankings that focused on the historical might of each team, this latest edition of Club World Cup power rankings is designed to live very much in the present. Simply: now that the competition is down to the final four teams, who's in the best form, and who has the best chance to win the trophy?
Bear in mind that the stage at which each club exited the tournament determines its tier of the rankings. While you may have left the Round of 16 feeling less confident in Inter Miami's showing than Atlético Madrid, the La Liga side's elimination in a tough group capped its highest-possible ranking at 17th. Likewise, even a strong tournament from Bayern Munich until that chaotic and gruesome conclusion against Paris Saint-Germain means it must slot in beneath your perceived weakest semifinalist.
In this series finale, we'll look at the performances which have led each team to the doorstep of a lucrative tournament final. We'll also highlight one notable player — either a new addition who rapidly acclimated, a mainstay who carried his team through tough matchups or a rising prospect who may have set themselves up for more involvement in the league thanks to a standout display or two.
First things first: let's determine the pecking order for the eliminated quarterfinalists (movement from the previous installment indicated in parentheses) before slotting each semifinalist accordingly.
8. Borussia Dortmund (down 1)
7. Al Hilal (down 1)
6. Palmeiras (down 2)
5. Bayern Munich (down 4)
Match 49: June 28, 12pm ET
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Match 50: June 28, 4pm ET
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Match 53: June 30, 3pm ET
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte
Match 54: June 30, 9pm ET
Camping World Stadium, Orlando
Match 51: June 29, 12pm ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Match 52: June 29, 4pm ET
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match 55: July 1, 3pm ET
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match 56: July 1, 9pm ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Match 58: July 4, 9pm ET
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Match 57: July 4, 3pm ET
Camping World Stadium, Orlando
Match 59: July 5, 12pm ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Match 60: July 5, 4pm ET
MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
Match 61: July 8, 3pm ET
MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
Match 62: July 9, 3pm ET
MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
Match 63: July 13, 3pm ET
MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
4. Fluminense (up 4)
Throughout a headline-stealing group stage that saw each of the field's Brazilian clubs rack up statement results against European rivals, Fluminense was perhaps the least heralded of the quartet. Some of this was circumstantial given their draw: a relatively weak group saw Fluminense beat Ulsan HD 4-2 and notch scoreless draws against Borussia Dortmund and Mamelodi Sundowns. None of the results were nearly as eye-catching as, say, a win over PSG or Chelsea, but they finished second in Group F and fell into what became the thinner half of the bracket. A team can only beat the opposition in front of them, and so on.
None of this is to call Fluminense's status as the final non-UEFA team in contention a fluke — far from it. The knockout bracket has seen the 2023 Copa Libertadores champion thwart Inter Milan before outlasting Al Hilal fresh from the Saudi side's takedown of Manchester City. Ageless goalkeeper Fabio has already logged five more appearances as he nears football immortality, and it isn't just stat-padding either. His 2.21 goals prevented (when comparing conceded goals to post-shot expected goals, or 'xGOT', faced) is the second-highest rate of the four remaining goalkeepers and fifth-best in the entire tournament. When weighted for shot volume faced, his goal prevention rate of 73.8 percent is third-best in the 32-team field, trailing only Thibaut Courtois and Gianluigi Donnarumma.
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Otherwise, it has largely been a success-by-committee approach. Defensive midfielder Hércules leads the team with two goals, with six others having scored once apiece to propel their team through the tournament. Jhon Arias has been the industrious one of the bunch, leading his team in shots (13) and chances created (17) despite having just one goal and one assist to date. Perhaps a date with Chelsea and its at-times overwhelmed defense can help him turn his effort into greater end product. In defense, no team has done better to limit their opponents' shooting threat with a field-best 0.072 xG per shot faced.
Either way, Fluminense has done what every team from beyond Europe hoped to achieve: be the furthest-advancing 'Rest of World' team. Their big-game presence has also been welcome from FIFA's perspective, ensuring the type of matchup variety that is frankly mandatory to sustain interest in a new tournament like this.
3. Chelsea (up 2)
In the aftermath of Chelsea's blown lead against Flamengo, which saw Nicolas Jackson sent off, the nature of the meltdown felt like an omen that Enzo Maresca's side couldn't be considered a tournament favorite. The mental lapses that cost Chelsea results in the Premier League had followed the Blues stateside, it seemed, and while Chelsea couldn't be discounted entirely, the field's more consistent or opportunistic sides would eventually see it out. And yet, the club weathered that mid-group defeat to get back on track in time for knockout dates with Benfica and Palmeiras.
First, the concerns. Only one player in this tournament has attempted more shots than Cole Palmer (16), yet the England international has just one goal to show for those efforts. Palmer seems to be forcing it at times, maintaining a very poor 0.06 xG per shot rate that suggests his teammates are struggling to get him looks in more dangerous situations.
The plus side is that Chelsea has found a better variety of outlets from which to create chances, with Pedro Neto leading the way (10 chances created in five games) ahead of Palmer, Enzo Fernandes and Marc Cucarella. The defense has also improved its ability to slow opponents in the final third, with only five teams conceding fewer shots per game than Chelsea's 7.6 clip.
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They've also come to embrace the art of the short corner, with far more than double the next team's usage of the approach. With two teammates joining the corner kick taker in close proximity, Chelsea dares opponents to sacrifice its defensive presence in the box and instead commit numbers to preventing a cross. It's a safe approach that offers a variety of successful outcomes, whether it's creating the usual lobbed chance from such routines or regaining a possessive sequence from a scenario that seldom sees the ball stay in a taking team's custody for long.
Overall, it's been an impressive summer as Chelsea heads into its second season under Maresca. The 2021 Club World Cup champion has set itself up well to potentially return to the final in this expanded format.
2. Real Madrid (up 1)
After a difficult 2024-25, this tournament seemed like a prime opportunity for Real Madrid to implement Xabi Alonso's vision with (to scale) lesser expectations to win hardware. Of course, 'rebuilding' is hardly part of the club's DNA, and even a Madrid team visibly learning on the fly is in its usual place among the contenders.
While Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen were instant insertions upon arriving from Liverpool and Bournemouth, respectively, the real lesson from these first five games has been the apparent first-team readiness of Gonzalo García. The 21-year-old was seen as a stopgap for this tournament as Madrid surveyed possible backups for Kylian Mbappé. However, García has rewarded his new manager's trust with some timely scoring in the group and quarterfinal alike, tying himself with Angel Di Maria and Marcos Leonardo with four goals. With both Benfica and Al Hilal eliminated, one more goal could be enough to give this tournament an unpredictable first Golden Boot winner.
The old guard is doing its part, too. Federico Valverde is still a class above in midfield and has been a hit on this side of the Atlantic, generating loud support from Uruguayans and Madrid fans alike. Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham are joint-team leaders with eight chances created apiece, while Courtois is a worthy front-runner for goalkeeper of the tournament.
The first five games have shown evidence of the hard work ahead for Alonso. His team plays almost too cleanly, with just 2.9 percent of their turnovers ending in fouls. It's the joint-lowest rate in the field, level with amateur side Auckland City, and one that may open Madrid up to too many counter attacks with which it can contend. As it stands, only two quarterfinalists allowed more shots per game than Madrid's 13.4. The end of their quarterfinal was far from comfortable, with Huijsen now set to miss the final and two conceded goals in extra time. As such, Madrid projects as the underdog in the stronger semifinal matchup.
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Nonetheless, it's another major tournament with Madrid among the final four sides — a semblance of normalcy in such an unknown sort of competition.
1. Paris Saint-Germain
Coming into this summer, everyone in the field knew that PSG can attack. That's always been their stronger phase of play, at least since they began operating like a super club, hoping to pad a scoreline enough to overcome defensive shortcomings and some leaky goals in spite of often strong goalkeeping.
This summer, Luis Enrique's side has followed up its Champions League breakthrough by leaning even more into refining its improving defense. Through five games, PSG has arguably been the field's best defensive side. Only one team has conceded fewer shots per game (7.4), while only two teams allow a stingier xG per shot faced (0.076). The press has kept opponents from sustaining possession for long (a passes allowed per defensive action taken, or 'PPDA', of 8.14) while only four teams are winning a greater share of loose balls (61.6 percent recovery rate).
Bayern fans will understandably rue Donnarumma for the rest of his career after the challenge that led to Jamal Musiala's gruesome injury. In terms of his shot-stopping, however, few goalkeepers have been more impactful in this tournament. Ousmane Dembele has looked impactful as ever since missing the group stage with injury, scoring from the bench against Bayern. Joao Neves and Achraf Hakimi have given opponents scoring threats to fear beyond the forward line, too.
All questions about their high-end capability, immediately after winning Europe, have been answered with a credible on-field balance. PSG could hardly have set itself up better to follow domestic and continental triumph with a global title to complete a famous treble (or, including Coupe de France, a quadruple).