How the world can pressure Pakistan on terrorism
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First, cessation of military action has held, but the current equilibrium is unstable. The position of the two countries on substantive issues remains widely divergent. In spite of India's stern message, there is a surreal atmosphere of triumphalism in Pakistan. The army has consolidated its position, at least for now. The Pakistanis seem encouraged by the relatively neutral stance of the US, for reasons not yet fully clear, during the recent crisis. Therefore, we need to keep a close eye on Pakistan over the coming weeks and months, while using the communication channel between the DGMOs to impart greater stability to the situation.Second, our political and media discourse has generated unrealistic expectations regarding our goals vis-a-vis Pakistan. This was evident in the widespread disappointment at our government's rational decision to cease military action on May 10 after Pakistan came around to doing so. Let us be clear that Pakistan is not about to collapse or disintegrate, is not a pushover militarily, and a fight to the finish with a nuclear armed country is an extremely dangerous proposition. The intended message having been delivered through Operation Sindoor, we need to eschew jingoism and bring realism in our public discourse on Pakistan.
Third, Pakistani terror against us has gone down significantly from its heyday. Nevertheless, there is no sign of the Pakistani establishment giving up its hostility towards India or its corollary—the instrument of terror. Therefore, our terror grid must remain in top gear. However, a goal of zero terrorism is unrealistic because in spite of their best efforts, security forces cannot prevent the enemy from slipping through our defences occasionally.Fourth, our experience during the recent crisis has shown yet again that the policy of isolating Pakistan has its limitations. The international community is well aware of Pakistan's deep involvement in terrorism, but is wary of a military escalation under the nuclear overhang. While our concerns on terrorism are much better appreciated today than till the turn of the century, other major countries, including Pakistan's partners in the Islamic world, go by their own interests and are not about to abandon it. This should not prevent us from using our growing clout to bring as much international pressure as possible to bear on Pakistan. An obvious area is to work with our partners to bring Pakistan again under greater scrutiny from the Financial Action Task Force.advertisementFifth, calibrated covert punitive activity and grey-zone tactics, with less chance of an escalation, should in general be our preferred response to Pakistani terror. However, for obvious reasons, chest-thumping about such activity is counterproductive. Further, coercion, though indispensable in managing Pakistan, should be a means to an end, with its impact being leveraged at an appropriate stage through dialogue and diplomacy to nudge the adversary to a more reasonable posture. Coercion as an end in itself is prone to heightened violence and volatility.Lastly, though China was not directly a party to the military skirmish with Pakistan, the China-Pakistan nexus was palpable through the crisis. This growing nexus demands an increase in allocation of resources to our armed forces.advertisement—Sharat Sabharwal is a former High Commissioner to PakistanSubscribe to India Today MagazineTune InMust Watch
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