Battle for Dalit Votes Intensifies in Bihar's Fractured Arena

The Hindu

3 days ago

Published : Jul 09, 2025 07:32 IST - 11 MINS READ
Since the 2024 general election, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has visited Bihar six times, consistently participating in events aimed at mobilising Dalit support for the party. And in a calculated effort to deepen this outreach, the Congress also appointed Rajesh Ram, a Dalit leader, as its State president in March this year.
The Congress is not alone in courting Dalit voters. The BJP recently accused leaders of the Mahagathbandhan of disrespecting B.R. Ambedkar as it attempts to portray itself as the true guardian of Dalit pride. The Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), has organised 'Bhim Sansad' events to engage with Dalit constituencies directly, while the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is exploring an alliance with Pashupati Kumar Paras, a prominent Dalit leader who recently parted ways with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Clearly, every major party in Bihar is making a concerted effort to win over Dalit voters. The reasons are evident: Dalits make up 19.65 per cent of Bihar's population, according to a caste survey conducted in the State in 2023. Of the State's 243 Assembly constituencies, 38 are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs), and Dalit voters also exert significant influence in many general constituencies.
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In a State where identity plays an important role in electoral outcomes, the rising political consciousness and assertiveness of Dalits have made them a crucial electoral force. While their preferences are not uniform, they often align around shared socio-economic conditions, making them a strategic target for all political parties ahead of the upcoming Assembly election.
Bihar's political landscape
Electoral politics in Bihar is largely defined by two major coalitions: the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan-INDIA combine. The NDA comprises the BJP; the JD(U); the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), or HAM(S); the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), or LJP(RV); and the Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM). The MGB coalition, on the other hand, includes the RJD, the Congress, the Left parties, and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP).
Both alliances are anchored in distinct caste-based support structures. The NDA draws strength primarily from the Hindu privileged castes, Kurmis, Kushwahas, and a broad section of the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs). The Mahagathbandhan relies heavily on the Yadav-Muslim vote base.
Within the NDA, the JD(U) represents non-Yadav OBCs, especially Kurmis and Kushwahas, along with EBCs, while the BJP primarily appeals to the Hindu privileged castes. The LJP(RV) has been continuously focussed on Paswan/Dusadh votes, which constitutes the largest share of the Dalit vote, while the HAM(S) focusses on Mahadalits, especially Musahars, a segment that is economically extremely poor and marginalised but numerically significant.
On the other hand, within the Mahagathbandhan-INDIA coalition, the RJD commands strong support among Yadavs and Muslims, while the Left parties get support from lower economic classes, especially weaker sections among EBCs and SCs. The VIP claims to represent the Nishad community, numerically significantly among EBCs but divided into many sub-castes. The Congress, which had a strong electoral support among Dalits three decades ago, is now making a renewed push to expand its influence within this group.
In the last Assembly election, both the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan-INDIA bloc secured nearly equal vote shares. However, the Congress emerged as the weakest link in the opposition alliance. In response, the party has turned its focus to Dalit communities, hoping to rebuild its political relevance in a State that once gave the party one of its tallest Dalit leaders: Babu Jagjivan Ram.
Dalit mobilisation in Bihar
Both Bihar and neighbouring Uttar Pradesh have a significant Dalit electorate, accounting for around one-fifth of their populations. Yet, the trajectory of Dalit mobilisation has differed sharply between the two States.
Raushan Sharma, in his PhD thesis titled 'Understanding Ambedkar and Lohia: A Comparative Study of the Politics of Caste in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh', observes that Dalit political and social mobilisation in Uttar Pradesh was significantly shaped by the efforts of the Backward and Minority Communities Employees Federation and the Dalit Shoshit Samaj Sangharsh Samiti, both founded under the leadership of Kanshi Ram, who later established the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
These organisations played a transformative role in advancing the social, economic, and political empowerment of SCs in the State. A key indicator of this progress, Sharma notes, is that Mayawati, a Dalit leader from the BSP, rose to become the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh four times—a remarkable milestone in the country's politics.
This wave of Dalit mobilisation in Uttar Pradesh, Sharma argues, drew inspiration from an earlier movement in Maharashtra led by Namdeo Laxman Dhasal, who founded the Dalit Panthers, a radical sociopolitical group inspired by the Black Panther movement in the US. The Dalit Panthers were instrumental in bringing the concerns of the marginalised into mainstream discourse, laying the foundation for broader Dalit assertion across States.
Bihar, in contrast, did not witness such an organised or sustained Dalit movement. Although reserved constituencies and reservations in government jobs provided Dalits with formal representation, this did not translate into widespread social or political assertiveness.
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Before the rise of Lalu Prasad Yadav, Dalits were a core support base of the Congress. This loyalty eroded in the 1990s as the emergence of backward-caste politics—led by Janata Party and Janata Dal factions—shifted Dalit allegiances. During this time, Lalu Yadav's RJD gained substantial support from Dalit voters. In parallel, Ram Vilas Paswan, a product of the Janata Dal era, rose to become a nationally prominent Dalit leader. However, over time, his party's influence narrowed, becoming largely confined to Paswan voters.
Mahadalit Commission
A significant turning point in Dalit politics came during the Nitish Kumar-led NDA government. In 2007, Nitish established the Mahadalit Commission, marking a new phase of Dalit engagement. The commission aimed to identify and uplift the most marginalised subgroups within the Dalit community, particularly those who had not fully benefited from affirmative action.
Initially, the Mahadalit category excluded castes such as Mochi, Dhobi, Pasi, and Paswan, who were perceived as relatively better off. However, over time, all non-Paswan Dalits were included in the Mahadalit list. The policy also introduced targeted welfare schemes to empower these groups economically and socially, creating a new layer of identity politics among the Dalits of Bihar.
The Lok Sabha election of 2024 saw another shift in Dalit electoral support, with the RJD-led alliance increasing its vote share across the spectrum, recording significant gains among the SCs, as per CSDS Lokniti data.
Babu Jagjivan Ram
Jagjivan Ram, popularly known as Babuji, was a Dalit icon who held various ministerial portfolios during a long political career. He was instrumental in founding the All India Depressed Classes League, dedicated to achieving equality for Dalits, in 1935. He was also a member of the Constituent Assembly of India.
Bihar's electoral landscape has been shaped by over three decades of coalition politics, resulting in a consistent fragmentation of vote share across parties. The last instance of any single party crossing the 30 per cent vote share mark in an Assembly election was in 1985, when the Congress secured 39.3 per cent of the vote.
From 2000 to 2020, the fragmentation deepened. In this period, across successive Assembly elections, only twice did any major party cross the 25 per cent vote share threshold, and on both occasions it was the RJD, first in February 2005 and then in 2020. The four principal parties, namely the RJD, the BJP, the JD(U), and the Congress, individually garnered less than 20 per cent of the vote each in most elections.
Dalit vote across seats
In this highly competitive and fragmented political context, the Dalit vote becomes especially pivotal. To explore Dalit electoral behaviour, we conducted a two-tiered analysis: first, comparison of party-wise vote share in constituencies reserved for SCs. Second, we analysed party-wise support within different layers of the Dalit electorate in the constituencies, varying from below 10 per cent to above 30 per cent. The data revealed a striking pattern: in 1990, over 50 per cent of the votes in reserved constituencies were shared between the Janata Dal and the Congress. However, the dominance of the two parties gradually declined, albeit for different reasons.
The Congress experienced a steady fall in Dalit support until 2005. Its vote share remained largely unchanged in 2010, but it rebounded modestly in 2015 and 2020, primarily because it joined opposition alliances.
The Janata Dal, meanwhile, was weakened by internal splits. Its legacy vote base was redistributed among the JD(U), the RJD, and the LJP. Over the past decade, the RJD has shown a steady resurgence, particularly among Dalits, while the LJP has faced a continuous decline and has largely been restricted to its core Paswan support base.
These shifts are closely linked to the dynamics of alliance politics in Bihar. Strategic alignments have influenced party performance, not only among dominant castes but also within Dalit constituencies. For example, Left parties saw a significant decline up to 2010 but have since experienced renewed support, partly through alliances and increased grassroots mobilisation.
Another notable development is the trajectory of the BSP. Between 1990 and 2005, the BSP steadily gained ground, bolstered by Dalit identity politics and the leadership of Kanshi Ram and Mayawati. However, its rise eventually stalled, reflecting the party's limited organisational penetration and appeal in Bihar.
The BJP, in contrast, has built a significant support base among the Mochi community, a Dalit sub-caste comparable to the Jatavs in Uttar Pradesh and forming approximately 4 per cent of Bihar's population. This has contributed to the BJP's electoral presence in reserved seats.
Going with non-dominant players
A particularly important trend in recent elections is that nearly 20 per cent of the votes in reserved constituencies have gone to non-dominant parties, especially in the 2015 and 2020 elections. This suggests a growing disillusionment with major political parties among Dalit voters and points to their willingness to consider alternatives outside the traditional power blocs.
We also conducted a separate analysis to examine the support base of the current NDA and Mahagathbandhan constituents across different types of Assembly constituencies, based on the concentration of Dalit voters. Given that the Dalit population is unevenly distributed across the State, we categorised the constituencies into four distinct groups:
1. With less than 10 per cent Dalit electorate
2. With 10-20 per cent Dalit electorate
3. With 20-30 per cent Dalit electorate
4. With more than 30 per cent Dalit electorate
This classification allowed us to explore whether variations in the proportion of Dalit voters across constituencies influenced the vote share of the two major coalitions.
Charts 3 and 4 provide a comparative analysis of voter support for the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan across the four categories of constituencies based on the proportion of Dalit voters. This segmentation enables us to assess how varying levels of Dalit concentration within constituencies have influenced the electoral performance of the two major alliances in Bihar.
Decline in support for NDA
The data revealed a notable decline in the NDA's vote share in the 2020 Assembly election across all four categories of constituencies, each defined by different concentrations of Dalit electorates. The drop in support was more than 5 percentage points in each category compared with 2015, indicating a broad-based erosion of Dalit support for the NDA. The steepest decline occurred in constituencies where Dalits account for 20-30 per cent of the electorate, suggesting that this segment has become increasingly disillusioned with the alliance. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan showed significant gains across all four categories in the 2020 Assembly election relative to 2015. This upward trend suggests that the alliance was more successful in consolidating Dalit support, especially in constituencies with moderate to high Dalit population shares.
Together, these trends underscore how Dalit demographic concentration plays a critical role in shaping electoral outcomes in Bihar. The 2020 results indicate a clear shift in Dalit voter preference away from the NDA towards the Mahagathbandhan, particularly in constituencies where Dalit voters form a decisive segment of the electorate.
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However, the 2025 election remains open-ended. It will likely hinge on how parties engage with Dalit communities, the credibility of alliances, and whether Dalit voters see tangible benefits and recognition from their political choices.
Despite internal divisions and fragmented loyalties, nearly every political party in Bihar is actively competing for Dalit support. In a State where caste survey politics holds significant sway, a political paradox is unfolding.
On the one hand, electoral bipolarity continues to deepen. On the other, new caste-based parties and leaders are emerging, only to align themselves with existing coalitions rather than form an independent third front. This trend has made it increasingly difficult for major alliances to fully accommodate the diverse aspirations of various caste groups, particularly Dalits.
Yet, uniting Dalits as a cohesive political bloc is not an impossible task. The example of Uttar Pradesh in the run-up to the 2024 general election is instructive. Despite widespread assumptions that Dalit voters would remain out of reach for parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress, strategic candidate selection, inclusive ticket distribution, and a compelling political narrative enabled the SP to make significant gains among Dalit voters.
For Bihar's political parties, a similar outcome is possible but only through inclusive leadership, authentic engagement with Dalit communities at the grassroots, and a commitment to addressing their specific social and political concerns. In a landscape shaped by identity and competition, the ability to build trust and offer genuine representation will be key to consolidating Dalit support in the elections ahead.
Ashish Ranjan is an election researcher and co-founder of the Data Action Lab for Emerging Societies.
Atul Kumar Pandey is an election researcher.