There's 115,000 reasons why Trump should be welcomed to Scotland

The Herald Scotland

5 days ago

Little is yet clear on the economic implications of America's new trade policies and Scotland's position within a radically changed global trade structure. The Trump administration is actively reshaping the way the world does business wherever the US is involved. Unfortunately the recent UK-US tariff deal is not yet the broadly-based trade agreement that would secure jobs for Scottish exporters.
A baseline 10% tariff on most goods entering the United States might be less challenging than the EU position but it has hit growth and jobs. For Scotland, it represents a significant challenge to our transatlantic trade relationship, which generated £3.8 billion in exports to the US in 2024. Exporters have been forced to re-route product and quickly develop new markets. The urgency of this month's discussions is underscored by the imminent review in August of the UK-US trade arrangements. The present temporary agreement is fragile, creating anxiety in many sectors of the Scottish economy, from universities to food and drink.
The impact on Scotland's key industries is already tangible. Scotch whisky, which suffered a major hit to sales during Trump's first presidency when he imposed 25% tariffs, faces renewed uncertainty. The US remains the largest Scotch export market by value, but global trade turmoil is a big headwind for an industry that exports 90% of its product.
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Similarly, Scottish salmon exports to the US are significant. Worth over £200 million annually, this trade is the second largest market for the product. And the pressure that lies ahead to harmonise with American regulatory standards could fundamentally alter Scotland's economic landscape. The US now views trade imbalances in simplistic terms, regulatory differences much more important than tariff levels. This represents a profound challenge to European standards on food safety, environmental protection, and product regulations. Food standards in particular are contentious and any changes could have far-reaching implications. Scotland still aims to keep in lock-step with the EU but may have to make some compromises with Westminster running the negotiations.
American investment in Scotland extends far beyond Trump's golf properties. The USA is Scotland's largest inward investor, accounting for around 25% of total foreign inward investment in Scotland. More than 650 US-owned businesses employ around 115,000 people across the country. The pharmaceutical sector, financial services, and technology companies in particular have established significant operations ranging from JP Morgan to Amazon and Microsoft.
Encouragingly, it seem that some American businesses are actually now viewing Scotland more favourably. If the UK can successfully negotiate a comprehensive trade agreement that provides greater certainty, Scotland could benefit from increased US investment as companies seek to establish operations that can serve both American and European markets from a single location. Anecdotal evidence also suggests that some individual Americans are considering Scotland for potential relocation, attracted by our political stability, social democratic values, and cultural heritage.
The relationship also involves exchange of ideas, as the US is Scotland's top global research collaborator. Eighty links between Scottish and US universities and colleges involve staff and student exchanges and many joint publications. The thousands of US students who come to our universities help to forge long lasting relationships between the two nations.
The controversial nature of Trump's presidency may actually be driving some North American tourism to Scotland. Many Canadians say they have changed their thinking about travelling to the USA. But overall Scotland's tourism sector is under pressure, as a weak US dollar makes Scotland expensive for American visitors. Combined with new visitor taxes, this means that the sector does not need any new frictions.
Trump's approach to international relations reflects a broader strategy to reshape the global economic order around American interests. The traditional multilateral framework that has governed international trade since the Second World War is being replaced by a more transactional system where countries must demonstrate an alignment of interests to maintain favourable treatment.
Scotland's relationship with the US clearly matters but, however much it grates to be dictated to, we have relatively few negotiating levers. Even the EU as a whole seems to be in that position at the moment. It will take our leaders all their skill to make the best of the forthcoming meetings. We must find common ground and realise we might learn from new US policies. It seems reasonable for example, that countries should pay their fair share for what is effectively an American security and financial umbrella. And it took US pressure for the UK recently to drop some surprising tariffs; on pasta, pineapples and fruit juice.
In some ways, Trump is pursuing a typical agenda for second term presidents - recognising that time and domestic political leverage is not on his side, making foreign policy a bigger focus. US exceptionalism may be unwinding even as it tears up longstanding agreements. In an increasingly fragmented global order it is more important than ever to protect Scottish interests.
When emotion and reason are in conflict, the heart often overrules the head. But this is a time to look beyond personalities. The path forward requires acknowledging uncomfortable realities about American power and Scottish dependence while working to preserve the values and interests that define Scotland.
Colin McLean is director of Barnton Capital Holdings