logo
Matt Orton explains why dips are viable in the US market

Matt Orton explains why dips are viable in the US market

Time of India26-05-2025
Matt Orton
, Head of Advisory Solutions and Market Strategy,
Raymond James Investment
,
says following a strong rally, the US market's future direction hinges on marginal policy shifts, especially concerning tariffs. Investors should prepare for potential dips, particularly if they missed opportunities earlier. While earnings justify market gains absent tariffs, the market has already factored in a baseline tariff, reacting to specific trade deal developments and future progress.
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
The truth behind OS scheduling algorithms
expertinspector
Undo
Trump's policy is Olive branch and iron fist, then olive branch, and then iron first. What is coming next?
Matt Orton:
What we are going to continue to see is this back and forth. It has been happening since Liberation Day on April 2nd and the market has digested that. At first, the market prepared itself for the worst, very high tariffs across the rest of the world and the rally that we had through the month of April, throughout May has been quite spectacular. So, what the market has realised is earnings, the base from which we are going to come, how the economy has been growing, all of that is in a very solid place. The damage that tariffs are going to inflict is not going to put the economy into a recession. That has never been my base case and the pivots that we have seen from the administration help to confirm that.
But now that we have had this strong rally and since we do not really have the positive catalysts of the earning season coming, I suspect the market is going to be driven by these marginal directional changes of administration. I tell investors to be ready to use some of that downside if they were not as aggressive towards the bottom of the market in April because again the market is going to be able to see through all of this once we start getting increasing clarity.
Are markets already capturing a bit of an upside and are markets already assuming that tariff is not going to be as high as what was indicated in March and April?
Matt Orton
: The markets are baking in some of that. Obviously, the markets are not baking in the entirety of zero tariffs going forward. The market has digested a 10% baseline tariff across the entire world and now the reactions are going to be very much with respect to who is getting more, who is having the trade deal signed, and where we might start to progress in the near future. When you look at earnings, you can justify the move that we have had in the market because absent tariffs is obviously counterfactual, but if we had not had tariffs put in place, we would probably be at 7,000 plus on the S&P 500 after an earnings season that was almost double of what expectations were.
Live Events
You Might Also Like:
Trump tariff push to make iPhones dearer for US market, labour cost may rise 13 times: Experts
We have got some big companies like Nvidia reporting this week which are probably still going to be strong. I think the markets have baked in some good news, but they are not overestimating that, which is why I think dips are viable in the US market.
The good news here in India is that we have overtaken Japan to become the fourth largest economy in the world. But talking about Japan, the fact that their core inflation is already at a two-year high could perhaps force the BOJ to hike as well. What are you making of the Japanese economy because there has been a lot of volatility in their bond markets?
Matt Orton:
Yes, there has been and when you look at all of the major global bond markets, there has been a lot of volatility and there has been a lot of steepening of yield curves, long-dated yields not just in the US but across all of the major economies and bond markets have been very elevated. Part of that is idiosyncratic, part of that is the large institutional buyers in those countries just have not been as aggressive. Japan, in particular, has not seen a lot of buying flow from pensions.
If anything, there may have been a little bit of selling from some of the insurance companies that tend to be systematic buyers. But the Japanese economy is tied to trade. There is uncertainty with respect to where that direction is going to go, which is why any sort of trade deal that gets inked in the near future can be a very positive catalyst for that market because before we got into April and before you had the large reciprocal tariffs, Japanese earnings expectations were one of the only countries around the world where you actually had positive and accelerating earnings expectations from analysts.
So, if we can get back to a place where there is more certainty around trade, that will benefit the Japanese economy overall. It is a country to keep eyes on, but don't wade into that too early.
You Might Also Like:
Wall Street on edge this week: Will Nvidia's earnings revive markets or fuel chaos amid soaring U.S. Debt?
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Venus Transit in Gemini 2025: Financial Growth Coming For These Zodiac Signs
Venus Transit in Gemini 2025: Financial Growth Coming For These Zodiac Signs

Time of India

time15 minutes ago

  • Time of India

Venus Transit in Gemini 2025: Financial Growth Coming For These Zodiac Signs

Today on July 26, 2025, the planet Venus or Shukra, demon's Guru has moved to Gemini zodiac sign, where Jupiter or Brihaspati, the Guru of all deities is already present there. Venus represents love, beauty and luxury and Guru symbolizes knowledge, success, growth and spiritual enlightenment. It is an auspicious event happened today, when they both came together and they will bring so many good changes in life of the people in terms of success, growth and money. Let's know about the luckiest zodiac signs during this time period. Venus Transit in Gemini 2025 : Date and Time Date: July 26, 2025, Time: Saturday at 09:02 AM Gemini Gemini zodiac signs who is ruled by Mercury and this conjunction will be in this zodiac sign for another one month and they are going to experience a great growth in terms of finances and wealth and also a lot of opportunities are coming their way. They were waiting for good opportunities and now is the right time to grab the chance which will be beneficial for you. This is an extremely auspicious yoga when Jupiter transiting with Venus in the house of Mercury. Taurus Taureans, you should be happy for the things that are coming your way. They are going to flourish during this time period in terms of money, success and promotion and also in their love life. They might get engaged with the person who belong to a reputed family. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 3BHK Transformation Possible for ₹4.5 Lakh? HomeLane Get Quote Undo If you are searching for the job then you must apply and create network, you will get your desired job in the coming month. Pisces Pisceans are going to experience a great time in their career and if they wanted to start a new business venture, they will find a way. Their creativity skills will be increased and those who were thinking to visit abroad for higher education, they would be able to go there and develop communication skills during this this period. Leo Leos are likely to receive huge money whether its from their job or business. Multiple sources of income will open in this month as Jupiter and Venus both are supporting you in a positive way. You might start your own business with needs verbal communication. You will explore new things in your career. You might start learning new skills also which will be beneficial for you in the future. In conclusion, Gemini, Leo, Pisces and Taurus are particularly well-positioned zodiac signs to benefit from financial success during Venus's transit in Gemini. Discover everything about astrology at Times of India , including daily horoscopes for Aries , Taurus , Gemini , Cancer , Leo , Virgo , Libra , Scorpio , Sagittarius , Capricorn , Aquarius , and Pisces . Read your detailed Horoscope Today and Horoscope Tomorrow here.

'Game-changing': Piyush Goyal lauds India-UK FTA; calls it 'stepping stone towards dream of Viksit Bharat'
'Game-changing': Piyush Goyal lauds India-UK FTA; calls it 'stepping stone towards dream of Viksit Bharat'

Time of India

time19 minutes ago

  • Time of India

'Game-changing': Piyush Goyal lauds India-UK FTA; calls it 'stepping stone towards dream of Viksit Bharat'

NEW DELHI: Union commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal on Saturday hailed the newly signed free trade agreement with the United Kingdom and said that the deal was signed on India's terms. While addressing a press conference, Goyal claimed the FTA to be "important" and "game-changing," stating that 99 per cent of India's exports will be able to go to the UK duty-free. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed a Free Trade Agreement. Cabinet approval has been given in India, but Parliamentary approval in the UK is pending," Goyal said. "It will be a game-changing FTA that will give immense opportunities and benefits to India's farmers, businessmen, MSME sector, youngsters, and fishermen. Out of all FTAs signed so far, the India-UK FTA has been the biggest, most comprehensive, and most important. This FTA has been signed on our terms. Ninety-nine per cent of our exports will be able to go to the UK duty-free,' he added. — ANI (@ANI) This comes after India and the UK signed a historic trade deal in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UK PM Starmer. The deal was finalised during PM Modi's visit to the United Kingdom. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Salma Hayek, 58,Shows Her Huge Size In New Photos Boite A Scoop Undo The agreement aims to boost bilateral trade to $120 billion by 2030—effectively doubling the current trade volume between the two nations. Taking a swipe at the previous UPA government, Goyal criticised its trade strategy while highlighting the Modi government's approach to FTAs. He also said that the comprehensive deal will help advance progress towards a Viksit Bharat. Goyal said, "UPA government signed FTAs with our competitors, with those countries who would sell their products in India for cheaper prices to destroy India's manufacturing sector... The FTAs signed during the UPA rule were not in the best interests of the country. FTAs signed by PM Narendra Modi are with Mauritius, Australia, EFTA countries, UAE, and now the UK." "Talks are going on with other developed countries. India now signs FTAs with countries which do not compete with us, but complement us. The UK-India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement will prove to be a stepping stone towards our dream of a Viksit Bharat," he added. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now

Italy's Meloni: Recognising Palestinian state before it is established may be 'counterproductive'
Italy's Meloni: Recognising Palestinian state before it is established may be 'counterproductive'

Time of India

time40 minutes ago

  • Time of India

Italy's Meloni: Recognising Palestinian state before it is established may be 'counterproductive'

Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said on Saturday that recognising the State of Palestine before it is established could be counterproductive. "I am very much in favour of the State of Palestine but I am not in favour of recognising it prior to establishing it," Meloni told Italian daily La Repubblica. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category Digital Marketing Project Management MCA Design Thinking Technology Degree PGDM Management Data Analytics healthcare Artificial Intelligence Cybersecurity Others Product Management MBA others Data Science Public Policy Leadership Healthcare Data Science Operations Management CXO Finance Skills you'll gain: Digital Marketing Strategies Customer Journey Mapping Paid Advertising Campaign Management Emerging Technologies in Digital Marketing Duration: 12 Weeks Indian School of Business Digital Marketing and Analytics Starts on May 14, 2024 Get Details Skills you'll gain: Digital Marketing Strategy Search Engine Optimization (SEO) & Content Marketing Social Media Marketing & Advertising Data Analytics & Measurement Duration: 24 Weeks Indian School of Business Professional Certificate Programme in Digital Marketing Starts on Jun 26, 2024 Get Details "If something that doesn't exist is recognised on paper, the problem could appear to be solved when it isn't," Meloni added. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Play War Thunder now for free War Thunder Play Now Undo France's decision to recognise a Palestinian state at the United Nations General Assembly in September drew condemnation from Israel and the United States, amid the war in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas. On Friday, Italy's foreign minister said recognition of a Palestinian state must occur simultaneously with recognition of Israel by the new Palestinian entity. Live Events A German government spokesperson said on Friday that Berlin was not planning to recognise a Palestinian state in the short term and said its priority now is to make "long-overdue progress" towards a two-state solution .

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store