Will a brewing storm hit the East Coast? Hurricane forecasters watch the Bermuda High.
The path this system takes, as is typical with many developing tropical systems, rests with a weather feature known as the Bermuda High, a key steering mechanism that often decides the fate of hurricanes.
If the Bermuda High weakens, the storm may curve out to sea. If it stays strong, the system could track closer to the U.S.
According to a Substack post by Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza, "this wave should move more to the west-northwest or northwest over the next few days as it makes an attempt to organize. The most likely scenario still takes this out to sea via a weakness in the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic." The subtropical ridge he refers to is another name for the Bermuda High.
Forecast models disagree
WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry agrees with Lanza's assessment, noting that the European weather model develops the system farther north and forecasts weaker subtropical high pressure, which allows the developing system to curl out to sea.
However, he said the American GFS model homes in on the southern edge of the tropical wave and maintains stronger high-pressure (Bermuda High) steering, which keeps it on a more westward trajectory near or just north of the Caribbean islands this coming weekend.
On X, University of Miami meteorologist Andy Hazelton said, "There is still a lot of uncertainty on the long-term fate of this one. (We) probably won't know for sure which solution is more likely until we see where this attempts to consolidate. It's many days away from any landmasses, thankfully, so plenty of time to watch."
What is the Bermuda High?
The strength of the Bermuda High will determine the track of this and many storms this season in the Atlantic.
The Bermuda High, an area of high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean, sits over the Atlantic during summer and often influences hurricane tracks. Its position and strength can steer hurricanes, determining whether they hit the U.S. East Coast, curve out to sea, or impact other areas like Bermuda.
According to AccuWeather, the clockwise circulation around the high-pressure system is what helps direct the path of tropical systems and can determine where they make landfall.
Easterly winds to the south of the high sometimes have the ability to force tropical systems onto a westerly course that can take them from the eastern Atlantic to the Caribbean Sea or over the Gulf.
High moves around haphazardly
Throughout the summer, the Bermuda High can move around in a haphazard way, which makes forecasting tropical systems more of a challenge, AccuWeather said.
'During the early part of the hurricane season, this high tends to be stronger and therefore noses westward into the northern Gulf but then as we go into late July and August, the high tends to expand and contract,' explained AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Kottlowski in an online report.
Later in the season, the Bermuda High tends to relax a bit and change orientation as August and September approach.
"During October, the high sometimes moves farther east, allowing for storms to move much closer to the east coast of the United States, north of the Carolinas," Kottlowski said.
Current storms in the Atlantic
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane forecasters eye brewing Atlantic storm and the Bermuda High
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