Iran: Failed talks and reawakening of remaining fronts

Ammon

2 days ago

Regional developments suggest the Middle East may be on the verge of a new phase of escalation, with the main headline being Iran's stalled return to negotiations under American conditions and the growing US threat of providing Israel with advanced military support ahead of the next round of confrontation with Tehran.
Negotiations surrounding the Gaza ceasefire have also stalled, while US President Donald Trump and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, have adopted an increasingly accusatory tone, placing full blame on Hamas for repeatedly undermining the deal. On the ground, this shift is already being translated by Israel into targeted operations and a push to advance the idea of an evacuation of Gaza—an objective Netanyahu's government seems poised to accelerate in the coming phase. This escalation also mirrors the broader Israeli effort in the West Bank to annex large swaths of territory and create a new reality.
In this context, the reaction of Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to French President Emmanuel Macron's call for recognizing a Palestinian state is telling. Smotrich responded by alluding to an expansion of Israeli sovereignty over West Bank land, which could prompt the current Israeli government to fast-track the annexation process, also benefiting from President Trump's dismissal of Macron's remarks as irrelevant, saying: 'What he says doesn't matter.'
On the Lebanese front, Hezbollah's messaging shows no sign of compliance with American demands, and disarmament remains far from possible. This opens the door to a potential escalation in Lebanon, especially as Israeli operations continue targeting Hezbollah's arsenal and operatives. In parallel, U.S. diplomatic circles are working toward redefining the UNIFIL mission—transforming it from a monitoring force into a peace-enforcing mission. Such a shift would not only expand UNIFIL's role on the ground but may also trigger direct confrontation with Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, in Syria, the recent clashes in Sweida marked a major turning point, but it is Israel's growing involvement that signals real concern. Israel fears that areas bordering the Golan Heights could spiral into lawlessness and become launchpads for destabilizing operations targeting its territory. In this environment of chaos, Iran and its proxies could find the perfect opportunity to return and re-establish an operational presence against Israel.
In Yemen, the front remains active. The Houthis continue to launch missile attacks toward Israel. While these strikes have caused minimal physical damage so far, they remain a strategic concern. This is Israel's most difficult front—its most impenetrable from an intelligence standpoint—making it Iran's most useful tool to maintain a threatening atmosphere. For Tehran, Yemen provides a valuable pressure valve, helping to preserve some level of deterrence, especially as Israel shifts its posture from defence to direct strikes inside Iranian territory during and after the recent 12-day war.
With diplomatic efforts stalled on all fronts—from Gaza to Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran—Iran is likely to seek ways to reduce pressure through the last remaining levers it holds. The regional fronts it once used to threaten Israel have been largely contained. The option of forcing confrontation on Israel's borders or from within, as seen on October 7, is no longer viable. In fact, Israel has reversed the equation by taking the confrontation directly into Iran.
Thus, easing pressure today may come through Iran's activation of the remaining capacity of its regional proxies, mobilizing pressure from border fronts or escalating its missile capabilities—particularly from Yemen. Tehran's likely course is to activate whichever front offers maximum leverage as it prepares for the next round of negotiations.