National Hurricane Center watching system off Florida for possible tropical development
The first indication of potential tropical development close to the southeastern United States appeared on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook Monday afternoon, June 3.
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Chances for development over the next two days ticked up slightly by 8 a.m. Tuesday, June 3, increasing from 0 percent June 2 to 10 percent.
Meanwhile, storms continue to bring rain to much of Florida, with a flood watch issued for four counties in South Florida.
Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and moving into Florida this week is helping to keep the tropics quiet. The dust helps prevent storms from developing or strengthening.
Historically, tropical systems in June develop close to the U.S., off the southeast coast or in the Gulf of America or Caribbean. Later in the season, storms typically form out of tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began Sunday, June 1, and meteorologists from NOAA to AccuWeather are predicting an above-normal season.
The first named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Andrea.
Here's the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 8 a.m., June 3.
A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast along a frontal boundary during the next couple of days, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"If the low remains offshore, it could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10 to 15 mph."
Formation chance through 48 hours: low10 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
The National Hurricane Center also is monitoring a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic. It's moving west at 11 mph.
Forecasters urge all residents to keep an eye on the tropics and to always be prepared.
The hatched areas on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium, and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
A tropical wave is a system of low pressure that moves westward across the tropics. Waves can lead to the formation of tropical cyclones, under the right conditions, according to the National Weather Service.
The majority of tropical cyclones develop out of tropical waves, which also are called easterly waves, according to NOAA. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said 85% of all tropical storms can trace their origins to tropical waves.
"If a tropical wave survives its journey westward, it will find increasingly warm waters and moist air as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, a group of islands in the Caribbean Sea," AccuWeather said.
Historically, named storms that develop in June pop up off the southeastern coast of the U.S. and the Gulf of America, according to data from NOAA and the National Weather Service.
By August, storms usually develop in the Atlantic or as they emerge as tropical waves off the coast of Africa.
AccuWeather meteorologists said while the area off the southeastern coast of the U.S. has a low risk for development, heavy rain, rip currents and rough surf are all possible from mid- to late week.
Another area being watched for potential tropical development between June 8 and June 13 is the western Caribbean and eastern Gulf of America.
Over the next week to 10 days, moist and dry air will alternate over the Caribbean and as far north as Florida waters in the Gulf and Atlantic, according to AccuWeather.
Saharan dust is expected to move into Florida by mid week, with some areas noticing hazy skies as early as June 3. It's expected to hang around into Saturday.
➤ 'Wall of dust': See impacts of Saharan dust, smoke from Canadian wildfires in Florida
The next few days will bring multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flooding, the National Weather Service Miami posted on X. One to 3 inches of rain is likely across most of South Florida June 3, with localized amounts around 6 inches.
A flood watch has been issued for Broward, Collier, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. Just over 4 inches of rain was recorded over the past 24 hours, the National Weather Service Miami reported at 7 a.m.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Along Florida's west coast and Southwest Florida, up to 5 inches of rain is possible in some locations, according to the National Weather Service Tampa Bay.
The National Weather Service Melbourne warned residents of Central and east Florida while rain won't be continuous June 3, it will be heavy at times and lead to localized flooding.
In Florida's Panhandle, localized heavy downpours are possible through Wednesday, June 4, along with gusty winds up to 40 mph.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories.
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
We will update our tropical weather coverage daily.
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This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: NHC tracking system off Florida. See chances for tropical development
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