Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier UFC 318 Odds, Best Bets: Holloway Favored

Newsweek

19-07-2025

Dustin Poirier is the slight betting underdog tonight vs. Max Holloway in the final fight of Poirier's career.
Dustin Poirier is the slight betting underdog tonight vs. Max Holloway in the final fight of Poirier's career.
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In the headliner of UFC 318 tonight at Smoothie King Center In New Orleans, Louisiana, Dustin Poirier and Max Holloway will clash in a must-see bout marking the final fight of 36-year-old Poirier's career.
Lafayette, Louisiana, native Poirier and Holloway have met twice previously, with Poirier submitting Holloway back in 2012 at featherweight. Poirier also beat Holloway (this time by unanimous decision) at lightweight in 2019.
Tonight, the two meet at lightweight for the UFC's BMF belt in the most high-profile fight of an intriguing card.
Below, we'll dive into the Poirier vs. Holloway betting odds, then give a prediction and a few best bets.
Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier Betting Odds
Below are the moneyline odds for Saturday night's fight.
DK FD bet365 Max Holloway -135 -134 -138 Dustin Poirier +114 +114 +110
Holloway, 33, is the slight favorite in a battle between two of the winningest fighters in UFC history.
It's interesting -- and tempting -- that Poirier is available at plus-money despite winning the previous two meetings between these two. Another reason to like Poirier is the raucous support he'll have on his home turf in Louisiana in his swan song.
Both these fighters have notched a number of impressive victories throughout their long careers. From Holloway's unforgettable "KO of the century" vs. Justin Gaethje at UFC 300 last year to Poirier's knockout of Conor McGregor in 2021, tonight's main event features two men responsible for a slew of memorable moments over the years.
Though both Poirier and Holloway are elite strikers who pack plenty of knockout power, tonight's matchup is expected to go the distance.
At DraftKings, over 4.5 rounds is priced at -154, with under 4.5 rounds listed at +120.
At FanDuel, in the "Will the Fight Go the Distance?" market, yes is listed at -132, and no is +104.
UFC 318 Holloway vs. Poirier Pick, Best Bets
When two fighters have met multiple times and the one who has lost both of the previous matchups is favored, figuring out the best bets is always tricky.
Between the home crowd and his comfort level at his usual lightweight class (Holloway is up from his usual featherweight), Poirier has a few undeniable advantages.
The price on "Will the Fight Go the Distance -- yes" isn't exactly irresistible, but I don't see either Hollloway or Poirier recording a knockout or winning this one by submission. With that in mind, the safe play here is on the fight to go the distance.
And it's worth noting that the FD price is excellent considering the same play is listed at -150 or shorter at both DK and bet365.
As for the winner, I'm going with the sentimental favorite, Poirier, who has twice gotten the better of his opponent in this matchup.
Another reason to like Poirier tonight is that Holloway is coming off the first loss via knockout of his career in his clash with Ilia Topuria at UFC 308 last October.
Keep in mind, though, that Poirier has lost two of his last three fights, including a loss by submission to Islam Makhachev at UFC 302 last June.
Best bets:
Will the fight go the distance? -- Yes (-132 at FanDuel) -- 1 unit
Dustin Poirier moneyline (+114 available at FD, DK) -- 0.75 units
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